Nifty had a small bounce after yesterdays sell off.Breadth was +ve and volumes were moderate, today being the expiry day.Important points for today
1.Nifty moved up by 0.8% with 2.3 breadth.
2.Nifty bounced up after 2 days of selloff.
3.15 days since Nifty made a new high of 5399.
Nifty hovering in 5200-5400 range for more than a month now.The wave count options are still many, so difficult to choose one.One important point though is that since feb6th, 55 days have gone by and the previous two rallies have been of 59 & 66 days.Also its been 15 days since Nifty made a high of 5399.(90 points higher than the previous high of 5309).
Also this points to one thing that Nifty lacks the momentum on the upside.So Nifty should undergo a big correction inorder to gain momentum OR Nifty will start its bear run (C-wave) soon.Let us see how will be this month's closing.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Apr28 update
Nifty had a selloff today with -ve breadth and good volumes.Overall weakness was there in broader markets.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved down by 1.8% with 0.2 breadth
2.2nd day of downturn after 5 days up.
3.First big selloff of this order since the rally began on feb6th.
Todays selloff was big and broad, and this character puts in doubt that it would be wave4 daily unless we get a rebound in next 1-2 days.Character of Wave4 is slow & gradual decline .Though todays move was big but was within the range Nifty had its previous fall,So Wave4 cannot be ruled out completely also.But incase it is Wave1 down then we should see Nifty levels of 4900-5000 levels in next few days. After todays -ve breadth,Nifty could take a breather before heading further down.Lets watch action of next few days.
1.Nifty moved down by 1.8% with 0.2 breadth
2.2nd day of downturn after 5 days up.
3.First big selloff of this order since the rally began on feb6th.
Todays selloff was big and broad, and this character puts in doubt that it would be wave4 daily unless we get a rebound in next 1-2 days.Character of Wave4 is slow & gradual decline .Though todays move was big but was within the range Nifty had its previous fall,So Wave4 cannot be ruled out completely also.But incase it is Wave1 down then we should see Nifty levels of 4900-5000 levels in next few days. After todays -ve breadth,Nifty could take a breather before heading further down.Lets watch action of next few days.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Apr27 update
Nifty was in narrow range again with -ve breadth and low volumes.Closing was above 5ema and this weekly closing is also the monthly closing,so important to see cloing for this week for further cues.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.6 breadth.
2.1st down day after 5 days of upmove.
Wave4/Wave5 Options are still open and this week's closing should give some cues about the path ahead.Though this week's closing being also monthly closing,so I anticipate this week's closing to be above 5249(March monthly closing) though it can be below 5304. ie this week's closing.On the Other hand if Nifty closes above 5350 on weekly, then its likely to be Wave5 in that case.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.6 breadth.
2.1st down day after 5 days of upmove.
Wave4/Wave5 Options are still open and this week's closing should give some cues about the path ahead.Though this week's closing being also monthly closing,so I anticipate this week's closing to be above 5249(March monthly closing) though it can be below 5304. ie this week's closing.On the Other hand if Nifty closes above 5350 on weekly, then its likely to be Wave5 in that case.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Apr26 update
Nifty moved in a narrow range on upside.Breadth was neutral and volumes were low.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 1.1 breadth.
2.5th consecutive day of upmove after 7 days of downturn.
5 days of upmove may be wave5 daily,in which case rally since feb6th is 52 days old.The previous two rallies have been 59,66 days.Nifty's close above 5374(prev highest closing) could well be the confirmation of wave5 daily.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 1.1 breadth.
2.5th consecutive day of upmove after 7 days of downturn.
5 days of upmove may be wave5 daily,in which case rally since feb6th is 52 days old.The previous two rallies have been 59,66 days.Nifty's close above 5374(prev highest closing) could well be the confirmation of wave5 daily.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Apr23 update
Nifty moved with -ve breadth and somewhat lower volumes and closed above 5300 on weekly basis.Important points for friday .
1.Nifty upmove by 0.7% with 0.85 breadth.
2.4th day of upmove after 7 days of downturn.
3.Nifty closes above 5300 on weekly basis after falling below it for 1 week.
Nifty's move still has many options open ie Wave4/Wave5 daily or WaveA down.The monthly closing of next week , if +ve will be 3rd +ve monthly.Wave1 & Wave3 monthly were 3 months long.It would be intersting to see how much Nifty will be able to go past 5399 during this upmove.That will also give some clue on the kind of downturn to expect
1.Nifty upmove by 0.7% with 0.85 breadth.
2.4th day of upmove after 7 days of downturn.
3.Nifty closes above 5300 on weekly basis after falling below it for 1 week.
Nifty's move still has many options open ie Wave4/Wave5 daily or WaveA down.The monthly closing of next week , if +ve will be 3rd +ve monthly.Wave1 & Wave3 monthly were 3 months long.It would be intersting to see how much Nifty will be able to go past 5399 during this upmove.That will also give some clue on the kind of downturn to expect
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Apr22 update
Nifty had a sharp upmove today but the last hour witnessed sustained selling wiping out nearly all of the gains made.Breadth at closing was -ve but volumes were large.Important points for today.
1.Nifty upmove by 0.5% with 0.85 breadth.
2.3rd day of upmove after7 days of downturn.
Todays move though not very clear, but it appears to me as Wave4/Wave5 daily(to be confirmed).Nifty if it goes up and closes above 5330 , should likely be Wave5 and if Nifty goes ~5300 and falls back to 5150 levels, then it should be wave4.Next 2-3 days of action should make the picture clear.
1.Nifty upmove by 0.5% with 0.85 breadth.
2.3rd day of upmove after7 days of downturn.
Todays move though not very clear, but it appears to me as Wave4/Wave5 daily(to be confirmed).Nifty if it goes up and closes above 5330 , should likely be Wave5 and if Nifty goes ~5300 and falls back to 5150 levels, then it should be wave4.Next 2-3 days of action should make the picture clear.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Apr21 update
Nifty moved in a narrow range today,in continuation of yesterdays upmove.Breadth was +ve and volumes were moderate.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.3% with 2.2 breadth.
2.2nd day of upmove after 7 days of downturn.
3.Nifty closed below 5ema.
Nifty moved in continuation of yesterdays upmove with +ve breadth, though price action was very small.This may indicate that Nifty may spend another 1-2 days around the same level,given the +ve breadth.The broader direction is not clear after todays move , so will look for more data to come to any conclusion.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.3% with 2.2 breadth.
2.2nd day of upmove after 7 days of downturn.
3.Nifty closed below 5ema.
Nifty moved in continuation of yesterdays upmove with +ve breadth, though price action was very small.This may indicate that Nifty may spend another 1-2 days around the same level,given the +ve breadth.The broader direction is not clear after todays move , so will look for more data to come to any conclusion.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Event update- Volcano in Europe
The Big Volcano eruption in Iceland occured on April14/15 onwards and is continuing, disrupting large parts of Europe.This is a big natural event happening in Europe.It may be an indicator for something big due to occur in Europe in coming weeks.
Apr20 update
Nifty bounced up today.Breadth was quite good and volumes were also good.This bounce could continue for another 1-2 days looking at the breadth of today.Important points for today.
1.Nifty bounced up 0.6% with4.0 breadth.
2.1st bounce after 7 days of downturn.
Nifty's correction is difficult to label after todays move as Wave4 daily or Wave1 down.Will look for more clarity for few days.Since Nifty has only moved 90 points above the January highs of 5309,so upsides are not extending much.Lets look for further signals before taking any short position for the big move down.
1.Nifty bounced up 0.6% with4.0 breadth.
2.1st bounce after 7 days of downturn.
Nifty's correction is difficult to label after todays move as Wave4 daily or Wave1 down.Will look for more clarity for few days.Since Nifty has only moved 90 points above the January highs of 5309,so upsides are not extending much.Lets look for further signals before taking any short position for the big move down.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Apr19 update
Nifty drifted further down today.Breadth was quite -ve but volumes were low.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.35 breadth.
2.7th day of downturn after 40 days of rally from feb6th.
3.Volumes were low though there was allround weakness from price action.
Nifty may be approaching a short term bottom here.If we get a bounce from here then this level will be short term bottom.My scenarios from here are either wave5 daily,truncated below 5400 or going upto 5500, OR it could be wave2 of downturn staying below 5400.Since Nifty is not undergoing big -ve price action(> 100 points)in this downmove and its 7 days of downturn with 5 consecutive ones,we should see a bounce/consolidation here in next few days.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.35 breadth.
2.7th day of downturn after 40 days of rally from feb6th.
3.Volumes were low though there was allround weakness from price action.
Nifty may be approaching a short term bottom here.If we get a bounce from here then this level will be short term bottom.My scenarios from here are either wave5 daily,truncated below 5400 or going upto 5500, OR it could be wave2 of downturn staying below 5400.Since Nifty is not undergoing big -ve price action(> 100 points)in this downmove and its 7 days of downturn with 5 consecutive ones,we should see a bounce/consolidation here in next few days.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Apr16 update
Nifty continued its downward trend.Breadth was weak today and volumes were also low.Important points for today.
1.Nifty downmove by 0.2% with 0.5 breadth.
2.6th day of downturn after 40 days of rally.
3.First -ve weekly closing after 9 +ve weeks.
Nifty is in correction now.This is either correction of 565 points(wave3 =5399-4835) OR of 725 points after completion of 5 waves(5399-4675)OR of the bull market rally since March09.Next week's closing and intraweek low should throw some light on the likely path of Nifty ahead.Next week's closing above 5200 should indicate of a likely pop ahead in weeks later.While a deeper cut to around 5100 should either be 725 point correction or correction of bull market rally.
1.Nifty downmove by 0.2% with 0.5 breadth.
2.6th day of downturn after 40 days of rally.
3.First -ve weekly closing after 9 +ve weeks.
Nifty is in correction now.This is either correction of 565 points(wave3 =5399-4835) OR of 725 points after completion of 5 waves(5399-4675)OR of the bull market rally since March09.Next week's closing and intraweek low should throw some light on the likely path of Nifty ahead.Next week's closing above 5200 should indicate of a likely pop ahead in weeks later.While a deeper cut to around 5100 should either be 725 point correction or correction of bull market rally.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Event update -Earthquake in US/China
Two earthquakes have happened recently.One in first week of April in/around US of 7.0+ magnitude and second in china of 7.1 magnitude on April13/14.Earthquakes to my observation are indicator of some turmoil/correction in economy/stocks.Since the magnitudes are big, so they should have some relevance.
Apr15 update
Nifty made a downmove, clearing some of the doubts.breadth was -ve and volumes were more than previous few days.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved down by 0.9% with 0.6 breadth.
2.5th day of downturn after 40 days of rally from feb6th.
The current downturn has 2 options as pointed out in earlier posts.Big downmove should have a deep intrday cut in coming week,If not and Nifty stays around 5200 by next week,ie 23rd April,Nifty's downmove is likely to be Wave4 daily to be followed by Wave5 daily.
1.Nifty moved down by 0.9% with 0.6 breadth.
2.5th day of downturn after 40 days of rally from feb6th.
The current downturn has 2 options as pointed out in earlier posts.Big downmove should have a deep intrday cut in coming week,If not and Nifty stays around 5200 by next week,ie 23rd April,Nifty's downmove is likely to be Wave4 daily to be followed by Wave5 daily.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Apr13 update
Nifty moved in a narrow downside range with -ve breadth and moderate volumes.It closed below 5ema again.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved down by 0.3% with 0.75 breadth.
2.Nifty not able to sustain above 5ema for 2 days now.
3.44th day of rally or 4th day of downturn.
The Wave count are still not clear and will need some more data.But it is the first time since this rally from feb6th that Nifty after falling below 5ema and rebounding above it, is not able to sustain above 5ema and has fallen again below 5ema without taking a new high.This is a pointer towards beginning of correction.Let's wait and see for market to confirm its move.
1.Nifty moved down by 0.3% with 0.75 breadth.
2.Nifty not able to sustain above 5ema for 2 days now.
3.44th day of rally or 4th day of downturn.
The Wave count are still not clear and will need some more data.But it is the first time since this rally from feb6th that Nifty after falling below 5ema and rebounding above it, is not able to sustain above 5ema and has fallen again below 5ema without taking a new high.This is a pointer towards beginning of correction.Let's wait and see for market to confirm its move.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Apr12 update
Nifty drifted down today.Not able to hold on to gains posted on Friday,Nifty traded down the whole day with low volumes.Important points for today
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.0 breadth.
2. Either 43rd day of rally from feb6th or 3rd day of downturn.
I am still not clear whether the current move be taken as beginning of correction or this is wave4/wave5 daily.Let us wait few more days to get clarity.
One important observation is that Nifty has closed above the Jan high weekly closing(5252) for 4 consecutive weeks(5262->5282->5290->5361).But the Intraday high in these 4 weeks is only 99 points(5399-5309).
One thing can be inferred from this is that Nifty lacks the momentum above 5250 and is Just dragging bit higher.We are closer to correction.This correction now can have 2 Options:
i)Nifty undergoing correction of 725 points and remain in the bull trend and takes higher levels.
ii)Nifty has made/making bull market top here and will make a big drop(>= 20%) from here signalling the beginning of WaveC of the bear market.
Monthly chart shows that Nifty's Wave5 is in progress,so we may be heading towards ii) scenario(?..).
Let us see how things turn up in next few days.
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.0 breadth.
2. Either 43rd day of rally from feb6th or 3rd day of downturn.
I am still not clear whether the current move be taken as beginning of correction or this is wave4/wave5 daily.Let us wait few more days to get clarity.
One important observation is that Nifty has closed above the Jan high weekly closing(5252) for 4 consecutive weeks(5262->5282->5290->5361).But the Intraday high in these 4 weeks is only 99 points(5399-5309).
One thing can be inferred from this is that Nifty lacks the momentum above 5250 and is Just dragging bit higher.We are closer to correction.This correction now can have 2 Options:
i)Nifty undergoing correction of 725 points and remain in the bull trend and takes higher levels.
ii)Nifty has made/making bull market top here and will make a big drop(>= 20%) from here signalling the beginning of WaveC of the bear market.
Monthly chart shows that Nifty's Wave5 is in progress,so we may be heading towards ii) scenario(?..).
Let us see how things turn up in next few days.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Apr9 update
Nifty reversed yesterdays loss.Today's move makes me rethink on my wave count.Now I think that move till 5399 was completion of wave3's 5th.And right now it is Wave4 daily that is unfolding.Wave4 in its rebound may go slightly above 5400 and then fall back towards 5200 levels later.
Important points for today.
1. Nifty upmove by 1.1% with 2.0 breadth.
2. 42nd of rally from Feb6th.
Looking at weekly charts, Wave1 and Wave3 have lasted for 13weeks(56days) and 14 weeks(66 days) respectively.So we can expect Wave5 weekly that is on since Feb6th to also be of same order approximately.That should mean that we are close to the top of bull market rally.
Important points for today.
1. Nifty upmove by 1.1% with 2.0 breadth.
2. 42nd of rally from Feb6th.
Looking at weekly charts, Wave1 and Wave3 have lasted for 13weeks(56days) and 14 weeks(66 days) respectively.So we can expect Wave5 weekly that is on since Feb6th to also be of same order approximately.That should mean that we are close to the top of bull market rally.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Apr8 Update
It was a reversal day.Nifty saw a sharp downmove of 70+ points .This should be correction of 725 point rally, since 5 waves on daily chart appear to be complete.
Important points for today.
1.Nifty downmove by 1.3% with 0.52 breadth
2.This should be Wave A of the correction.(Expected correction is ABC Zigzag).
If todays move is correction of the last 40 days rally , Nifty should move down to about 80% of its target in next 2-3 days before showing any positive upside movement.
I am assuming 80% of target, since WaveA of correction usually goes to 60-80% of correction.Also this correction should be of 8-10 days.
If it is the reversal of the Bull market since March09, Nifty downfall should increase in momentum gradually, and we should see consecutive lower weekly closings with potential target of ~4000 in next 2-4 weeks.
Important points for today.
1.Nifty downmove by 1.3% with 0.52 breadth
2.This should be Wave A of the correction.(Expected correction is ABC Zigzag).
If todays move is correction of the last 40 days rally , Nifty should move down to about 80% of its target in next 2-3 days before showing any positive upside movement.
I am assuming 80% of target, since WaveA of correction usually goes to 60-80% of correction.Also this correction should be of 8-10 days.
If it is the reversal of the Bull market since March09, Nifty downfall should increase in momentum gradually, and we should see consecutive lower weekly closings with potential target of ~4000 in next 2-4 weeks.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Apr7 update
Nifty had an Intraday selloff but recovered at the end.Breadth was same as yesterday and volumes improved over yesterday.Wave5 daily continues with 4 days already.
Important points for today.
1.Nifty upmove by 0.2% with 1.3 breadth.
2.40th day of rally from Feb6th.
Since Nifty has closed above its 5ema, so it remains in +ve momentum, so more upsides can be expected though it is struggling every few points higher now.This being the Wave5 daily, there should be swift reversal whenever Nifty corrects its 700+ point rally.
Important points for today.
1.Nifty upmove by 0.2% with 1.3 breadth.
2.40th day of rally from Feb6th.
Since Nifty has closed above its 5ema, so it remains in +ve momentum, so more upsides can be expected though it is struggling every few points higher now.This being the Wave5 daily, there should be swift reversal whenever Nifty corrects its 700+ point rally.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Apr6 update
Nifty had a quiet day today.Consolidation in a small range with moderate breadth and higher than average volumes.Nifty should resume its upmove to target about 5400 levels.
Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by .05% with 1.4 breadth.
2.39th day of rally from Feb6th.
As said in earlier posts, I expect this to be Wave5 daily.
But another Option is that this could be Wave4 daily(Nifty going a-b-c flat correction in Wave4)ie5329->5235(a)->(b)?->(c)?.
If this is the case then I expect Nifty to rebound from 5150-5200 levels(Wave C) and target 5400-5500 level on the bounce and this should be the top of the rally from March 09.Let us see which option will Nifty take in coming days.
Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by .05% with 1.4 breadth.
2.39th day of rally from Feb6th.
As said in earlier posts, I expect this to be Wave5 daily.
But another Option is that this could be Wave4 daily(Nifty going a-b-c flat correction in Wave4)ie5329->5235(a)->(b)?->(c)?.
If this is the case then I expect Nifty to rebound from 5150-5200 levels(Wave C) and target 5400-5500 level on the bounce and this should be the top of the rally from March 09.Let us see which option will Nifty take in coming days.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Apr5 update
Nifty made a strong upmove with good breadth and moderate volumes.This should be the wave5 daily targetting 5400+ in this rally.Important points for today.
1.Nifty upmove by 1.5% with 4.5 breadth.
2.38th day of rally from Feb6th.
Wave5 on daily should not be extended wave since Wave3 was extended wave.Till today Wave5 is 142 points.Since Wave1 was 250 points, So Wave5 could potentially stop at about 200-250 points.The Kind of correction after Wave5 is not clear.There are two(3) options that look likely.
i) We take a weekly correction of about 100 points or so and then continue with the rally.
ii)Take a bigger correction of 150-200 points on weekly and continue the rally.
iii) Another option is that this is the bull market top of rally since March09.
I would like to look for weekly behaviour to judge Nifty's Move.
1.Nifty upmove by 1.5% with 4.5 breadth.
2.38th day of rally from Feb6th.
Wave5 on daily should not be extended wave since Wave3 was extended wave.Till today Wave5 is 142 points.Since Wave1 was 250 points, So Wave5 could potentially stop at about 200-250 points.The Kind of correction after Wave5 is not clear.There are two(3) options that look likely.
i) We take a weekly correction of about 100 points or so and then continue with the rally.
ii)Take a bigger correction of 150-200 points on weekly and continue the rally.
iii) Another option is that this is the bull market top of rally since March09.
I would like to look for weekly behaviour to judge Nifty's Move.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Apr1 update
Nifty bounced back with Very positive breadth and moderate volumes.Today's breadth indicates that Nifty should move up for atleast 2-3 days more.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 4.3 breadth.
2.The rally from Feb6th is still continuing.Today being the 37th day.
3.Nifty is up for 8th consecutive week.
Todays bounce with such a positive breadth indicates that Nifty has started its Wave5 daily.Nifty should be able to reach/cross 5400 in this upmove.After this move ends,either that is the end of year long rally, or this could Just be the end of Wave1 on weekly.So in both cases,We can expect a correction of atleast ~50-60% of rally ie
0.6x(700+) = 400-450 points.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 4.3 breadth.
2.The rally from Feb6th is still continuing.Today being the 37th day.
3.Nifty is up for 8th consecutive week.
Todays bounce with such a positive breadth indicates that Nifty has started its Wave5 daily.Nifty should be able to reach/cross 5400 in this upmove.After this move ends,either that is the end of year long rally, or this could Just be the end of Wave1 on weekly.So in both cases,We can expect a correction of atleast ~50-60% of rally ie
0.6x(700+) = 400-450 points.
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