Nifty went down further breaking 5350 but recovered later on.Important points for the day .
1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.4 breadth.
2.6th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty broke the previous swing low of 5350 intraday and bounced from there.In spite of the bounce,Nifty closed in the red.The bounce looks weak ,so if Nifty again goes below 5350 in next few days then further weakness is there in Nifty for deeper downside or else Nifty will have to go above 5450 inorder to confirm the strength of the bounce.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
Aug30 update
Nifty moved sideways today with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 0.78 breadth.
2.5th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty briefly went below 5400 but was mostly confined in 5400-5450 range for rest of the day.Volumes were low and its likely a pause in the downside.Nifty should cut below 5350 levels and take support at 5150-5200 levels in the next few days inorder to maintain the downside momentum.I don't expect Nifty to be in sideways range above 5350.So this week should likely be a bigger cut than last week.
1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 0.78 breadth.
2.5th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty briefly went below 5400 but was mostly confined in 5400-5450 range for rest of the day.Volumes were low and its likely a pause in the downside.Nifty should cut below 5350 levels and take support at 5150-5200 levels in the next few days inorder to maintain the downside momentum.I don't expect Nifty to be in sideways range above 5350.So this week should likely be a bigger cut than last week.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Aug27 update
Nifty drifted down today below 5400 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.3 breadth.
2.4th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty broke the previous swing low of 5397 and closed below the previous low of 5414.This indicates that the medium term correction may have started.Further close below 5367 will confirm the medium term correction.Incase of medium term correction , Nifty should likely break the 5350 levels and go to 5200 levels in the next couple of days.5100-5200 is a good support area and I expect Nifty to take support in that area.Incase Nifty has started long term correction then there could be a big slide in the next 2weeks of the order of 20%+.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.3 breadth.
2.4th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty broke the previous swing low of 5397 and closed below the previous low of 5414.This indicates that the medium term correction may have started.Further close below 5367 will confirm the medium term correction.Incase of medium term correction , Nifty should likely break the 5350 levels and go to 5200 levels in the next couple of days.5100-5200 is a good support area and I expect Nifty to take support in that area.Incase Nifty has started long term correction then there could be a big slide in the next 2weeks of the order of 20%+.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Aug26 update
Nifty was in sideways range today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 0.76 breadth.
2.3rd day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty moved within yesterday's range.The closing was positive but the breadth was -ve.Breadth in Nifty points to weakness.But Nifty has not yet broken the previous swing low of 5408/5416.Any break and close below these levels only will confirm the reversal of Nifty.Since these are critical levels, so break of these levels can see Nifty going down fast towards the next support levels at 5150-5200.Nifty's reversal if confirmed will make the coming 1-2 weeks very important since incase the reversal is also long term reversal then there could be a big fall also.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 0.76 breadth.
2.3rd day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty moved within yesterday's range.The closing was positive but the breadth was -ve.Breadth in Nifty points to weakness.But Nifty has not yet broken the previous swing low of 5408/5416.Any break and close below these levels only will confirm the reversal of Nifty.Since these are critical levels, so break of these levels can see Nifty going down fast towards the next support levels at 5150-5200.Nifty's reversal if confirmed will make the coming 1-2 weeks very important since incase the reversal is also long term reversal then there could be a big fall also.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Aug25 update
Nifty drifted further down today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.25 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 64 days of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty went down for 2nd consecutive day with breadth of 0.25.If this short term correction Nifty should pause here and consolidate/bounce from here.If not and Nifty closes below 5400 , then Nifty has entered medium term correction with possible targets of 4900-5100.If Nifty breaches these levels also,then Nifty may be entering long term correction ie Bear phase.In Bear phase , I expect Nifty to come down to 4000-4500 levels in the first cut in about 15 days time from the highs ie Aug23.
1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.25 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 64 days of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty went down for 2nd consecutive day with breadth of 0.25.If this short term correction Nifty should pause here and consolidate/bounce from here.If not and Nifty closes below 5400 , then Nifty has entered medium term correction with possible targets of 4900-5100.If Nifty breaches these levels also,then Nifty may be entering long term correction ie Bear phase.In Bear phase , I expect Nifty to come down to 4000-4500 levels in the first cut in about 15 days time from the highs ie Aug23.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Aug24 update
Nifty drifted down today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.5 breadth.
2.1st down day after 64 days of rally from lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke the swing lows of last 3 days and closed below 5ema, indicating onset of short term correction.Break and close below 5400 will confirm the medium term correction of the rally from 4786.The rally was 763 points and 61% retracement of this rally is 471 points ie 5080.So Nifty could correct upto this level in short term.Any further weakness beyond 61% level with high momentum could result in markets crashing down.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.5 breadth.
2.1st down day after 64 days of rally from lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke the swing lows of last 3 days and closed below 5ema, indicating onset of short term correction.Break and close below 5400 will confirm the medium term correction of the rally from 4786.The rally was 763 points and 61% retracement of this rally is 471 points ie 5080.So Nifty could correct upto this level in short term.Any further weakness beyond 61% level with high momentum could result in markets crashing down.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Aug23 update
Nifty was sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.64th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty was in sideways range today.So since 3 days Nifty is in about 50 points range of 5500-5550.Breadth is neutral to marginally +ve.This indicates weak momentum of the upside rally.With today's closing there is a topping pattern in place.If nifty corrects below 5400 from here, than that would confirm the top being formed today.Number of days of rally also point to Nifty being at close to the top of this leg of rally,Which may or may not be the last leg also.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.64th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty was in sideways range today.So since 3 days Nifty is in about 50 points range of 5500-5550.Breadth is neutral to marginally +ve.This indicates weak momentum of the upside rally.With today's closing there is a topping pattern in place.If nifty corrects below 5400 from here, than that would confirm the top being formed today.Number of days of rally also point to Nifty being at close to the top of this leg of rally,Which may or may not be the last leg also.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Aug20 update
Nifty consolidated its gain of last 2 days with moderately high volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.75 breadth.
2.63rd day of rally/1st day of downturn.
3.3rd consecutive weekly close above 5400.
Nifty was sideways today,consolidating the gains of previous 2 days.The volumes and breadth were weak,indicating weak momentum for the upside rally.3 Consecutive weekly close above 5400 indicates Nifty is at inflection point,so if next 2-3 weeks are down, then Nifty may be heading for the much awaited big downward spiral.Close below 5400/5350 is confirmation of start of medium/long term downtrend.If Nifty's top is in place,and big downtrend has started/about to start, then 2nd/3rd week from now could be a big down week ie Week of 3rdSept/10th Sept.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.75 breadth.
2.63rd day of rally/1st day of downturn.
3.3rd consecutive weekly close above 5400.
Nifty was sideways today,consolidating the gains of previous 2 days.The volumes and breadth were weak,indicating weak momentum for the upside rally.3 Consecutive weekly close above 5400 indicates Nifty is at inflection point,so if next 2-3 weeks are down, then Nifty may be heading for the much awaited big downward spiral.Close below 5400/5350 is confirmation of start of medium/long term downtrend.If Nifty's top is in place,and big downtrend has started/about to start, then 2nd/3rd week from now could be a big down week ie Week of 3rdSept/10th Sept.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Aug19 update
Nifty bounced up above 5500 making new yearly highs with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.5 breadth.
2.62nd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved up strongly but the breadth was only slightly +ve.Today was second day of rally after the brief correction and todays closing was above the previous intraday highs.Since we have seen 4-6 days of upmove in a rally in the last 30 days,so I expect that this upmove should slow down now on its upward ascent.Counts will be considered once the Nifty shows signs of short term correction to 5ema.Break below 5400 should indicate onset of correction of the rally from 4786.Also from no of days,this rally should be near to completion.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.5 breadth.
2.62nd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved up strongly but the breadth was only slightly +ve.Today was second day of rally after the brief correction and todays closing was above the previous intraday highs.Since we have seen 4-6 days of upmove in a rally in the last 30 days,so I expect that this upmove should slow down now on its upward ascent.Counts will be considered once the Nifty shows signs of short term correction to 5ema.Break below 5400 should indicate onset of correction of the rally from 4786.Also from no of days,this rally should be near to completion.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Aug18 update
Nifty bounced up strongly with high volumes and marginally +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.61st day of upmove since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty bounced up strongly indicating that the correction was short term and was Wave4 on the extended Wave5(from 5233).This is likely wave5 of extended wave5.According to the counts(that I am considering),Wave3 is less than Wave1 and is of 143 points.So Nifty's Wave5 should likely stay below 5550.There is a likelihood of Nifty making a bull market Top by next week.
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.61st day of upmove since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty bounced up strongly indicating that the correction was short term and was Wave4 on the extended Wave5(from 5233).This is likely wave5 of extended wave5.According to the counts(that I am considering),Wave3 is less than Wave1 and is of 143 points.So Nifty's Wave5 should likely stay below 5550.There is a likelihood of Nifty making a bull market Top by next week.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Aug17 update
Nifty moved sideways today with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.0 breadth.
2.60/6th day since highs of 5492( after 33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved sideways staying within yesterdays range.Nifty didnot break yesterdays low today,so if tomorrow Nifty is +ve or flattish -ve, then Nifty could bounce up again for another go at 5500 with a new weekly high closing.Outside of short term ie beyond 1-2 weeks , I see Nifty reversal to begin.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.0 breadth.
2.60/6th day since highs of 5492( after 33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved sideways staying within yesterdays range.Nifty didnot break yesterdays low today,so if tomorrow Nifty is +ve or flattish -ve, then Nifty could bounce up again for another go at 5500 with a new weekly high closing.Outside of short term ie beyond 1-2 weeks , I see Nifty reversal to begin.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Aug16 update
Nifty drifted down today with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.6 breadth.
2.59/5th day since the highs of 5492(After 33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke Fridays low and closed below it indicating bearishness.Breach of previous swing low of 5372 will likely take Nifty to ~5200 levels.I expect this to happen in next 1-3 days.Nifty can either bounce up from 5200 OR keep going low.The momentum in next 2-3 days will decide how is Nifty likely to react on/near 5200.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.6 breadth.
2.59/5th day since the highs of 5492(After 33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke Fridays low and closed below it indicating bearishness.Breach of previous swing low of 5372 will likely take Nifty to ~5200 levels.I expect this to happen in next 1-3 days.Nifty can either bounce up from 5200 OR keep going low.The momentum in next 2-3 days will decide how is Nifty likely to react on/near 5200.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Aug13 update
Nifty moved past 5450 today with high volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.15 breadth.
2.58th day since 4786 lows OR 4th day since the highs of 5492.
3.11th week of rally since the lows of 4786.
Nifty moved in +ve territory but the close was in the middle of today's range.Also breadth was only marginally +ve indicating weak momentum.This move may either be retracement of the fall from 5492-5372 or this is rally after correction upto 5372.If Monday ,Tuesday are down days then I would consider today's move to be retracement of the fall of last 3 days.In such a case expiry week would be critical and Nifty could make a big fall in that week.Else I expect Nifty to make big fall upto the week of September10th.
1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.15 breadth.
2.58th day since 4786 lows OR 4th day since the highs of 5492.
3.11th week of rally since the lows of 4786.
Nifty moved in +ve territory but the close was in the middle of today's range.Also breadth was only marginally +ve indicating weak momentum.This move may either be retracement of the fall from 5492-5372 or this is rally after correction upto 5372.If Monday ,Tuesday are down days then I would consider today's move to be retracement of the fall of last 3 days.In such a case expiry week would be critical and Nifty could make a big fall in that week.Else I expect Nifty to make big fall upto the week of September10th.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Aug12 update
Nifty gapped down on open but recovered later on.Volumes were high and breadth -ve.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.8 breadth.
2.3rd consecutive down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke below 5400 today.On Intraday basis,the levels have been broken indicating that Nifty may have reversed from its rally.Closing basis confirmation though is still needed.If Nifty has started its downturn,then today was the 3rd day of the downturn and Nifty should target its potential or near potential target within ~20 days ie till about 3rd september.Tomorrow's Weekly closing will be important to see how Nifty closes.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.8 breadth.
2.3rd consecutive down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke below 5400 today.On Intraday basis,the levels have been broken indicating that Nifty may have reversed from its rally.Closing basis confirmation though is still needed.If Nifty has started its downturn,then today was the 3rd day of the downturn and Nifty should target its potential or near potential target within ~20 days ie till about 3rd september.Tomorrow's Weekly closing will be important to see how Nifty closes.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Aug11 update
Nifty moved down today with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.55 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty came down for 2nd consecutive day and closed below 5ema and 20sma.Tomorrow's closing will be important,since Nifty must bounce back tomorrow if the rally from 4786 has some legs left else more weakness will push Nifty further down indicating the end of rally from 4786 and start of reversal.Even if Nifty bounces upward,I expect the upward push not to continue beyond middle of next week to be followed by reversal.
1.Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.55 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty came down for 2nd consecutive day and closed below 5ema and 20sma.Tomorrow's closing will be important,since Nifty must bounce back tomorrow if the rally from 4786 has some legs left else more weakness will push Nifty further down indicating the end of rally from 4786 and start of reversal.Even if Nifty bounces upward,I expect the upward push not to continue beyond middle of next week to be followed by reversal.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Event update- leh cloudburst
A unique event in the form of cloudburst happened on Aug6 in Leh,resulting in heavy flooding and widespread destruction.This was very high intensity rare event.Also the pattern of rains/monsoons this season has been erratic ie very heavy rains followed by spell of normal/humid weather.
Aug10 update
Nifty was sideways down today with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.1st down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty drifted down while staying sideways.Now todays move is either part of short term correction going on since last 4 days ,and is to be followed by an upside rally OR Nifty has reversed from its upmove.Next few days of move will indicate.Breach of 5400/5350 should signal the onset of a correction for the rally.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.1st down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty drifted down while staying sideways.Now todays move is either part of short term correction going on since last 4 days ,and is to be followed by an upside rally OR Nifty has reversed from its upmove.Next few days of move will indicate.Breach of 5400/5350 should signal the onset of a correction for the rally.
Monday, August 9, 2010
Aug9 update
Nifty made new yearly highs and closed at new high with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.9% with 2.3 breadth.
2.54th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty closed at new yearly highs.Nifty is inching upward without any momentum on the upside.Nifty is extending its 5th wave that started from 5233.The current wave may be Wave4/Wave5.Any close below 5400/5350 should signal the end of rally and start of reversal.Also Nifty usually makes a top of the rally in the first half,so next 4-5 days could potentially be a top of the Nifty since the number of days of rally is also approaching the maximum Nifty has rallied in last 17 months(66 days of rally).
1.Nifty moved up by 0.9% with 2.3 breadth.
2.54th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty closed at new yearly highs.Nifty is inching upward without any momentum on the upside.Nifty is extending its 5th wave that started from 5233.The current wave may be Wave4/Wave5.Any close below 5400/5350 should signal the end of rally and start of reversal.Also Nifty usually makes a top of the rally in the first half,so next 4-5 days could potentially be a top of the Nifty since the number of days of rally is also approaching the maximum Nifty has rallied in last 17 months(66 days of rally).
Friday, August 6, 2010
Aug6 update
Nifty was in sideways with downward bias on moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 51 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty closed the day below the lows of yesterday,confirming short term correction is on.Today's weekly closing nearly erased all the loss of previous week.If the short term correction stays above 5390 ,then I expect Nifty to make new high and new high weekly closing for next week.Then onwards Nifty could turn down OR If Nifty closed below 5367(last correction low)or breaches 5349(previous intraday low),then Nifty may have reversed from its rally from 4786.Including today,Nifty has done 53 days since the lows of 4786.Given the number of days that different rallies have lasted in the last 17 months,Nifty should be within 5-10 days from the top of this rally.
1.Nifty down by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 51 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty closed the day below the lows of yesterday,confirming short term correction is on.Today's weekly closing nearly erased all the loss of previous week.If the short term correction stays above 5390 ,then I expect Nifty to make new high and new high weekly closing for next week.Then onwards Nifty could turn down OR If Nifty closed below 5367(last correction low)or breaches 5349(previous intraday low),then Nifty may have reversed from its rally from 4786.Including today,Nifty has done 53 days since the lows of 4786.Given the number of days that different rallies have lasted in the last 17 months,Nifty should be within 5-10 days from the top of this rally.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Aug5 update
Nifty moved sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.9 breadth.
2.1st down day after 51 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty after moving sideways,came down in last 1 hour and closed below 5450.Todays -ve closing signals onset of short term correction.If the correction stays above 5390 for next 3-4 days then Nifty may likely attempt new highs just above 5500.This rally should most likely be the last of the complete rally from 4786.But If Nifty has topped out at 5467,then I expect to see either a fast move down in next few days or some sideways days on the downside followed by a big slide.
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.9 breadth.
2.1st down day after 51 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty after moving sideways,came down in last 1 hour and closed below 5450.Todays -ve closing signals onset of short term correction.If the correction stays above 5390 for next 3-4 days then Nifty may likely attempt new highs just above 5500.This rally should most likely be the last of the complete rally from 4786.But If Nifty has topped out at 5467,then I expect to see either a fast move down in next few days or some sideways days on the downside followed by a big slide.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Aug4 update
Nifty moved further up making new highs with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.0 breadth.
2.With Nifty crossing the previous highs,last 8 days are part of the rally from 4786,so its 51 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty made new highs but the breadth was neutral.In last 3 days of rally, breadth has been neutral to marginally +ve.This indicates lack of conviction and caution among the people.This is the 5th Wave of the rally from 4786 that seems to be extended wave.Nifty has tested 20sma 3 times now,so another test of 20sma should likely be a reversal in the trend.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.0 breadth.
2.With Nifty crossing the previous highs,last 8 days are part of the rally from 4786,so its 51 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty made new highs but the breadth was neutral.In last 3 days of rally, breadth has been neutral to marginally +ve.This indicates lack of conviction and caution among the people.This is the 5th Wave of the rally from 4786 that seems to be extended wave.Nifty has tested 20sma 3 times now,so another test of 20sma should likely be a reversal in the trend.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Aug3 update
Nifty moved sideways today with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.7th day since the highs of 5475.
Nifty was sideways today and closed marginally in +ve.Yesterday's upmove has not been confirmed by today's move,indicating that this may well be the retracement of the fall from 5475-5349.Though it is also possible that Nifty may just push past the earlier highs of 5475 and descend.The momentum in the rally is not there and any significant upside is therefore difficult.Next 3 days of the week will throw more light on the character of this rally from 5349.
My scenario is for a big push down either from 5200 level or from 5350 levels.
1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.7th day since the highs of 5475.
Nifty was sideways today and closed marginally in +ve.Yesterday's upmove has not been confirmed by today's move,indicating that this may well be the retracement of the fall from 5475-5349.Though it is also possible that Nifty may just push past the earlier highs of 5475 and descend.The momentum in the rally is not there and any significant upside is therefore difficult.Next 3 days of the week will throw more light on the character of this rally from 5349.
My scenario is for a big push down either from 5200 level or from 5350 levels.
Monday, August 2, 2010
Aug2 update
Nifty bounced back above 5400 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.7 breadth.
2.6th day since the highs of 5475.
Nifty regained most of the lost ground since the last 5 days.The bounce is approx 80% of the fall of previous 5 days.If the bounce continues for 1-2 days more than it would be an impulsive move likely to move above 5500.But if today's rally fizzles out tomorrow and Nifty closes in -ve and follows it up -ve days for 1-2 days more than today's rally may just be a retracement of the fall of 5 days.I do not considered a blowout upside rally as of now.
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.7 breadth.
2.6th day since the highs of 5475.
Nifty regained most of the lost ground since the last 5 days.The bounce is approx 80% of the fall of previous 5 days.If the bounce continues for 1-2 days more than it would be an impulsive move likely to move above 5500.But if today's rally fizzles out tomorrow and Nifty closes in -ve and follows it up -ve days for 1-2 days more than today's rally may just be a retracement of the fall of 5 days.I do not considered a blowout upside rally as of now.
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