Nifty drifted down but rebounded above 6000 with high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.7 breadth.
2.91st day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.21st day of rally from 5350/5402.
Nifty rebounded from 5963 level but the rally was on -ve breadth.Today being the first up day after a correction, so -ve breadth indicates that this rally could be the last one.Number of days in this leg of rally are already 21, indicating a very mature rally.If this rally extends into next week,then later half of october is likely to be critical for a correction.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Sep29 Update
Nifty drifted down below 6000 today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.42 breadth.
2.2nd day since the highs of 6035/6073.
3.Nifty closed below 5ema after 20 days.
Nifty's closing below 5ema indicates start of short term correction.This correction can either be correction of the 700 point rally or of the entire rally from 4786 or of the bull market from Mar09 level of 2539.First important level to watch out for will be 5700 (50% of 700 pt rally).5350 is the next important level being the previous swing low.Below this 4700 is the major support with 4950& 5150 being other support levels besides 5000 as important psychological level.
So for the 88 day,1300 point rally ,minimum correction should be below 5350 ie probably around 5000-5100 levels.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.42 breadth.
2.2nd day since the highs of 6035/6073.
3.Nifty closed below 5ema after 20 days.
Nifty's closing below 5ema indicates start of short term correction.This correction can either be correction of the 700 point rally or of the entire rally from 4786 or of the bull market from Mar09 level of 2539.First important level to watch out for will be 5700 (50% of 700 pt rally).5350 is the next important level being the previous swing low.Below this 4700 is the major support with 4950& 5150 being other support levels besides 5000 as important psychological level.
So for the 88 day,1300 point rally ,minimum correction should be below 5350 ie probably around 5000-5100 levels.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Sep28 Update
Nifty was sideways with downside bias and moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.7 breadth.
2.89th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.19th day of rally from 5350/5402.
Nifty drifted down in sideways manner.Nifty has slowed down in last few days with -ve breadth, indicating Nifty needs a consolidation/correction now before the next move.Since the duration of the rally has stretched to 89 days,so the correction may also be the medium term correction.My indicators point to probable correction in 1st week and last week of October.But I am not expecting the big crash to sub 4500 levels in this correction.For that I suppose $index turning up and SPX going down below 900 will be needed which I don't see them running in that direction atleast in the coming weeks.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.7 breadth.
2.89th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.19th day of rally from 5350/5402.
Nifty drifted down in sideways manner.Nifty has slowed down in last few days with -ve breadth, indicating Nifty needs a consolidation/correction now before the next move.Since the duration of the rally has stretched to 89 days,so the correction may also be the medium term correction.My indicators point to probable correction in 1st week and last week of October.But I am not expecting the big crash to sub 4500 levels in this correction.For that I suppose $index turning up and SPX going down below 900 will be needed which I don't see them running in that direction atleast in the coming weeks.
Monday, September 27, 2010
Sep27 Update
Nifty moved up in sideways manner making a new high but on moderately higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 0.9 breadth.
2.88th day of rally from lows of 4786.
3.18th day of rally from 5350/5402.
Nifty has reached the upper end of the rally in terms of days taken ie 18 days.Also momentum is waning with each rise, indicating Nifty is ready to undergo correction of this 700 point rally now from 5350.There are two three scenarios that I have for the correction, but the minimum retracement that I think is around 5700 levels before a bounce.Break of previous swing low of 5932 will confirm the onset of short term correction.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 0.9 breadth.
2.88th day of rally from lows of 4786.
3.18th day of rally from 5350/5402.
Nifty has reached the upper end of the rally in terms of days taken ie 18 days.Also momentum is waning with each rise, indicating Nifty is ready to undergo correction of this 700 point rally now from 5350.There are two three scenarios that I have for the correction, but the minimum retracement that I think is around 5700 levels before a bounce.Break of previous swing low of 5932 will confirm the onset of short term correction.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Sep24 Update
Nifty reversed the loss of last two days and closed above 6000 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.9 breadth.
2.87th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.4th consecutive up week.11.5% rally in these 4 weeks.
Nifty made a weekly close above 6000.Since Nifty has rebounded ,so I expect it move higher for few days before reversing again.Swing low of 5932 will be a critical level and if broken will indicate Nifty's reversal now.But since Nifty's correction looks very likely now,so Nifty could correct partially(upto 5500-5600) and bounce back and make a new high before finally reversing for the complete reversal.Also Seasonally, Nifty has October last week as its Low week quite often,So 1-2 week before and after October last week is the likely Low for the Nifty.September closing will clear up some scenarios of the Nifty ahead.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.9 breadth.
2.87th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.4th consecutive up week.11.5% rally in these 4 weeks.
Nifty made a weekly close above 6000.Since Nifty has rebounded ,so I expect it move higher for few days before reversing again.Swing low of 5932 will be a critical level and if broken will indicate Nifty's reversal now.But since Nifty's correction looks very likely now,so Nifty could correct partially(upto 5500-5600) and bounce back and make a new high before finally reversing for the complete reversal.Also Seasonally, Nifty has October last week as its Low week quite often,So 1-2 week before and after October last week is the likely Low for the Nifty.September closing will clear up some scenarios of the Nifty ahead.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Sep23 Update
Nifty was sideways today with downside bias with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.77 breadth.
2.2nd day since the highs of 6032.(84 days of rally).
3.1st time since the rally from 5350 that more than 1 bar has been reversed(in 2days).
Nifty drifted down today with sideways movement.The upside momentum has slowed/reversed.Since the rally from 5350 was a momentum rally so any slowdown/downside should probably indicate the end of rally.If true I expect retracement upto 20sma in next few days ie ~5700.Nifty could cut down big after pausing at 5700 around/after expiry.Any upward thrust above 6037 though will negate the downside scenario and indicate that the rally from 5350 still continues.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.77 breadth.
2.2nd day since the highs of 6032.(84 days of rally).
3.1st time since the rally from 5350 that more than 1 bar has been reversed(in 2days).
Nifty drifted down today with sideways movement.The upside momentum has slowed/reversed.Since the rally from 5350 was a momentum rally so any slowdown/downside should probably indicate the end of rally.If true I expect retracement upto 20sma in next few days ie ~5700.Nifty could cut down big after pausing at 5700 around/after expiry.Any upward thrust above 6037 though will negate the downside scenario and indicate that the rally from 5350 still continues.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Sep22 Update
Nifty moved sideways with downside bias with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.47 breadth.
2.85th day since the lows of 4786.
3.15th day since the lows of 5350/5402.
Nifty broke yesterdays low and closed in the red, though within yesterdays bar.Another 1-2 days of -ve price action will be needed to confirm the reversal of Nifty in short term.The move from 5350 is parabolic in nature , so reversal can be expected to be sharp and swift.Since last pause/correction ,Nifty made a new high 136 points higher before taking another pause today.So the rally from 5350 is slowing down and is nearing its top.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.47 breadth.
2.85th day since the lows of 4786.
3.15th day since the lows of 5350/5402.
Nifty broke yesterdays low and closed in the red, though within yesterdays bar.Another 1-2 days of -ve price action will be needed to confirm the reversal of Nifty in short term.The move from 5350 is parabolic in nature , so reversal can be expected to be sharp and swift.Since last pause/correction ,Nifty made a new high 136 points higher before taking another pause today.So the rally from 5350 is slowing down and is nearing its top.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Sep21 Update
Nifty broke above 6000 levels today with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 0.3 breadth.
2.84th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.14th day of rally since 5350/5402.
Nifty moved and closed above 6000 today.Breadth in this rally has been weak.I expect this rally to be the last rally of the bull market since Mar09.Nifty is not yet showing any signs of weakness except weak breadth.A rally in Nifty usually does not go beyond 18-21 days in the best of the rallies in the Past.So with 14 days already gone,the rally may be nearing its end.I expect this weekly closing to be +ve since last week was big +ve ,so this week it should slow down first before reversing.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 0.3 breadth.
2.84th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.14th day of rally since 5350/5402.
Nifty moved and closed above 6000 today.Breadth in this rally has been weak.I expect this rally to be the last rally of the bull market since Mar09.Nifty is not yet showing any signs of weakness except weak breadth.A rally in Nifty usually does not go beyond 18-21 days in the best of the rallies in the Past.So with 14 days already gone,the rally may be nearing its end.I expect this weekly closing to be +ve since last week was big +ve ,so this week it should slow down first before reversing.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Sep20 Update
Nifty continued its surge and moved just a tad below 6000 levels with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.5 breadth.
2.83rd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.13th day of rally from 5350/5402.
Nifty continues to bang higher 13th day on the trot.Today's Breadth on Nifty signals capitulation in Index and also broader market's breadth is also indicating capitulation.So top for this 13day rally should be around.The correction following the rally will mark whether it's a Short/Medium/Long term correction.My view is that the top of rally will likely be top of bull market from Mar09 and will be a start of Longer term correction with possible dip to 4700(Minimum) as 1st target OR 4500/below for deeper targets.Breach of Previous lows of 4786 should likely confirm that the correction is long term correction and is WaveC of the Bear market.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.5 breadth.
2.83rd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.13th day of rally from 5350/5402.
Nifty continues to bang higher 13th day on the trot.Today's Breadth on Nifty signals capitulation in Index and also broader market's breadth is also indicating capitulation.So top for this 13day rally should be around.The correction following the rally will mark whether it's a Short/Medium/Long term correction.My view is that the top of rally will likely be top of bull market from Mar09 and will be a start of Longer term correction with possible dip to 4700(Minimum) as 1st target OR 4500/below for deeper targets.Breach of Previous lows of 4786 should likely confirm that the correction is long term correction and is WaveC of the Bear market.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Sep17 Update
Nifty moved sideways between 5850-5900 with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 2.1 breadth.
2.82nd day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.12th day of rally from 5402/5348.
Nifty consolidated between 5850-5900 with +ve breadth.Breadth turned +ve today after minor correction of yesterday indicating that broader market is capitulating in this leg of rally.Breadth was neutral to -ve since last 3-4 days of the rally.This should be the end of Wave5.Though Nifty is likely to go above 5900 for 1-2 days.The correction for this entire leg of rally from 4786 should be as written earlier within 8-10 days of the Top.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 2.1 breadth.
2.82nd day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.12th day of rally from 5402/5348.
Nifty consolidated between 5850-5900 with +ve breadth.Breadth turned +ve today after minor correction of yesterday indicating that broader market is capitulating in this leg of rally.Breadth was neutral to -ve since last 3-4 days of the rally.This should be the end of Wave5.Though Nifty is likely to go above 5900 for 1-2 days.The correction for this entire leg of rally from 4786 should be as written earlier within 8-10 days of the Top.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Sep16 Update
Nifty surpassed 5900 in early today before pulling back with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.4 breadth.
2.1st down day after 80 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty pull back today though well within the Previous days bar.Nifty is due for short term correction,so may have started it today.In such a case I expect Nifty to pullback more probably upto ~5600.5350-5550 is the previous range that Nifty broke so that is a strong support zone.So If Nifty is entering into medium term reversal then this pullback should stop well above 5550 and then enter into the support zone with big momentum inorder to break below it.Nifty's behaviour of the next few days will tell the intentions where Nifty intend to go.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.4 breadth.
2.1st down day after 80 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty pull back today though well within the Previous days bar.Nifty is due for short term correction,so may have started it today.In such a case I expect Nifty to pullback more probably upto ~5600.5350-5550 is the previous range that Nifty broke so that is a strong support zone.So If Nifty is entering into medium term reversal then this pullback should stop well above 5550 and then enter into the support zone with big momentum inorder to break below it.Nifty's behaviour of the next few days will tell the intentions where Nifty intend to go.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Sep15 Update
Nifty continued its upturn crossing 5850 with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.65 breadth.
2.80th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.10th day of rally from 5402/5350.
Nifty continued its upsurge but the breadth stayed -ve.This breakout rally is different in the sense that breadth is neutral to -ve on this breakout.Sustenance of this rally should be seen for 2-3 weeks before hoping onto this rally for bigger upmoves.The other scenario being that if this is the last freakout rally,then on reversal Nifty should slide down below previous short/medium term swing lows.I see the chances of Nifty breaking down from here high going into expiry and the week after that.My natural indicator observation is for a straight line fall to a new medium term bottom,that is below the previous medium term bottom range of 4500-4800.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.65 breadth.
2.80th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.10th day of rally from 5402/5350.
Nifty continued its upsurge but the breadth stayed -ve.This breakout rally is different in the sense that breadth is neutral to -ve on this breakout.Sustenance of this rally should be seen for 2-3 weeks before hoping onto this rally for bigger upmoves.The other scenario being that if this is the last freakout rally,then on reversal Nifty should slide down below previous short/medium term swing lows.I see the chances of Nifty breaking down from here high going into expiry and the week after that.My natural indicator observation is for a straight line fall to a new medium term bottom,that is below the previous medium term bottom range of 4500-4800.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Sep14 Update
Nifty continued its upsurge crossing 5800 levels with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.4 breadth.
2.79th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.9th day of the rally from 5402/5350.
Nifty continued its upward momentum but the breadth turned -ve today.This indicates that Nifty is due for a healthy correction in short term.Nifty could enter into short term correction and then make marginally new highs and then undergo Medium term correction OR the correction now will be a Medium term correction.My expectation of correction most likely before Oct15/Nov5(worst case) stands and I will review it only if Nifty goes well above 6000 levels.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.4 breadth.
2.79th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.9th day of the rally from 5402/5350.
Nifty continued its upward momentum but the breadth turned -ve today.This indicates that Nifty is due for a healthy correction in short term.Nifty could enter into short term correction and then make marginally new highs and then undergo Medium term correction OR the correction now will be a Medium term correction.My expectation of correction most likely before Oct15/Nov5(worst case) stands and I will review it only if Nifty goes well above 6000 levels.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Sep13 Update
Nifty extended its breakout on the 5th day above 5750 with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 1.1 breadth.
2.78th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty has shown good momentum on this breakout.But the breadth is not supportive of the momentum.Upside pattern potential is for a target of ~6000.Beyond that,I cannot come up with any possible pattern/scenario.Given the momentum Nifty is exhibiting,I expect Nifty to go to its maximum target probably in next 2-4 weeks.Also the breakout can be a shakeout for the bears before the downleg starts.Since the correction in a sharp upward momentum will also be sharp,so start of downleg will be difficult to know initially.Breach of previous swing low of 5350 will be critical point for the downswing.
1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 1.1 breadth.
2.78th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty has shown good momentum on this breakout.But the breadth is not supportive of the momentum.Upside pattern potential is for a target of ~6000.Beyond that,I cannot come up with any possible pattern/scenario.Given the momentum Nifty is exhibiting,I expect Nifty to go to its maximum target probably in next 2-4 weeks.Also the breakout can be a shakeout for the bears before the downleg starts.Since the correction in a sharp upward momentum will also be sharp,so start of downleg will be difficult to know initially.Breach of previous swing low of 5350 will be critical point for the downswing.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Sep9 Update
Nifty moved upto about 5650 with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.0 breadth.
2.77th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
Nifty moved upto 5650,though the breadth has been neutral for last3 days indicating that Nifty is moving up in resistance and short term correction should set in soon.Nifty's move above 5600 has broken a channel drawn from Nov highs of 5181.The break above 5600 does not pose any further big resistance on the upside.I expect that this could act as sentiment breaker for the bears and thus for the Nifty to make a Top.Unless 5350 is broken,Nifty's reversal could not be confirmed.Though with todays Weekly closing Nifty has completed 5 wave impulse from 4786 on weekly basiswith Wave1~=Wave5 and Wave3 being extended.Though My expectation is for a slide to the lows by Oct15,but if proven wrong I would extend my time range to ~Nov5(44th week of year).Beyond that I don't think I can make out any other scenario for the Nifty to go down in this year.
My probable scenario is for Nifty to go down to first lows by Oct-Nov'10 and then rally and then make final lows by Feb-Mar'11 and to retest those lows by July-Sept'11.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.0 breadth.
2.77th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
Nifty moved upto 5650,though the breadth has been neutral for last3 days indicating that Nifty is moving up in resistance and short term correction should set in soon.Nifty's move above 5600 has broken a channel drawn from Nov highs of 5181.The break above 5600 does not pose any further big resistance on the upside.I expect that this could act as sentiment breaker for the bears and thus for the Nifty to make a Top.Unless 5350 is broken,Nifty's reversal could not be confirmed.Though with todays Weekly closing Nifty has completed 5 wave impulse from 4786 on weekly basiswith Wave1~=Wave5 and Wave3 being extended.Though My expectation is for a slide to the lows by Oct15,but if proven wrong I would extend my time range to ~Nov5(44th week of year).Beyond that I don't think I can make out any other scenario for the Nifty to go down in this year.
My probable scenario is for Nifty to go down to first lows by Oct-Nov'10 and then rally and then make final lows by Feb-Mar'11 and to retest those lows by July-Sept'11.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Sep8 Update
Nifty moved sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.05% with 1.2 breadth.
2.76th day of upmove since the lows of 4786.
Nifty was ranged in yesterdays range.Nifty seems to be topping out here on short term given the price action and breadth of last 2 days.This could also be a Medium/Long term top,but it will only be known on subsequent move of Nifty.This weekly closing is likely to be now above 5600,so if Nifty undergoes weekly correction next week,then chances of Nifty having formed a medium/long term top this week will increase.
1.Nifty up by 0.05% with 1.2 breadth.
2.76th day of upmove since the lows of 4786.
Nifty was ranged in yesterdays range.Nifty seems to be topping out here on short term given the price action and breadth of last 2 days.This could also be a Medium/Long term top,but it will only be known on subsequent move of Nifty.This weekly closing is likely to be now above 5600,so if Nifty undergoes weekly correction next week,then chances of Nifty having formed a medium/long term top this week will increase.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Sept7 update
Nifty extended its upmove by breaking above 5600 with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.15 breadth.
2.75th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke above 5600 and closed above it also.Breadth was weak today indicating not much upside in this move of rally now.On the weekly RSI chart,the wave structure appears to be extended Wave3 that is now followed by Wave5.Wave1 was about 310 points ,so Wave5 can be around that since Wave3 is longest and extended wave.Till now Wave5 is ~275 points.So this weekly closing could be above 5600,thus maintaining equality between Wave1 and Wave5.Break of 5350 only will confirm the reversal of Nifty.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.15 breadth.
2.75th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke above 5600 and closed above it also.Breadth was weak today indicating not much upside in this move of rally now.On the weekly RSI chart,the wave structure appears to be extended Wave3 that is now followed by Wave5.Wave1 was about 310 points ,so Wave5 can be around that since Wave3 is longest and extended wave.Till now Wave5 is ~275 points.So this weekly closing could be above 5600,thus maintaining equality between Wave1 and Wave5.Break of 5350 only will confirm the reversal of Nifty.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Sept6 update
Nifty bounced up strongly making new highs with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 3.1 breadth.
2.74th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn.
Nifty made a strong comeback with +ve breadth.Given the breadth,Nifty is likely to be in a rally mode for another 2-3 days atleast before a short term correction/ consolidation.This rally now is the longest rally of the bull market from Mar09.
Since weekly retracement of the 1 week fall in Nifty was ~60%,So if the weekly closing this week is below the previous highest weekly close of 5530,then this rally could well be suckers rally before the fall,else Nifty will again make some topping Pattern.My expectation is that now to Oct15 is a very high probability zone of big fall in Nifty.6-10 days from the top is when Nifty may make a dip as Nifty stays in correction for 6-8 days before bouncing back.All eyes are waiting for Nifty to undergo correction,So 6-10 days is where i see Nifty could surprise even the bears.
1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 3.1 breadth.
2.74th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn.
Nifty made a strong comeback with +ve breadth.Given the breadth,Nifty is likely to be in a rally mode for another 2-3 days atleast before a short term correction/ consolidation.This rally now is the longest rally of the bull market from Mar09.
Since weekly retracement of the 1 week fall in Nifty was ~60%,So if the weekly closing this week is below the previous highest weekly close of 5530,then this rally could well be suckers rally before the fall,else Nifty will again make some topping Pattern.My expectation is that now to Oct15 is a very high probability zone of big fall in Nifty.6-10 days from the top is when Nifty may make a dip as Nifty stays in correction for 6-8 days before bouncing back.All eyes are waiting for Nifty to undergo correction,So 6-10 days is where i see Nifty could surprise even the bears.
Friday, September 3, 2010
Sep3 update
Nifty was in sideways range today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.5 breadth.
2.9th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty moved in yesterdays range and closed in the red.Since All previous corrections in Wave5 have been surpassed in 7/8 days,so this bounce being just a retracement remains valid.Another 1-2 days 5549 is not crossed,then chances of a steeper correction will increase.Also this week,Nifty retraced 58% of last weeks fall.All previous corrections on weekly basis in Wave5 have been retraced completely/or more than 90% in the next week.These are indications that reversal may have happened in Nifty at 5549.Also 21 days from the highs is critical time to make a bottom or close to bottom.So with 9 days gone, next 12 days could see lot of action.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.5 breadth.
2.9th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty moved in yesterdays range and closed in the red.Since All previous corrections in Wave5 have been surpassed in 7/8 days,so this bounce being just a retracement remains valid.Another 1-2 days 5549 is not crossed,then chances of a steeper correction will increase.Also this week,Nifty retraced 58% of last weeks fall.All previous corrections on weekly basis in Wave5 have been retraced completely/or more than 90% in the next week.These are indications that reversal may have happened in Nifty at 5549.Also 21 days from the highs is critical time to make a bottom or close to bottom.So with 9 days gone, next 12 days could see lot of action.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Sep2 update
Nifty extended its bounce while moving sideways with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.7 breadth.
2.8th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty was in sideways range with upside bias.Yesterdays momentum was not there today since Nifty though within the 5550 range but was not comfortable crossing 5500 zone.Also breadth was moderately +ve only.Since the start of Wave5 from 5225,Nifty has closed above its short term correction in 7/8 days on 3 times.So if another 2-3 days Nifty is unable to move past 5550 then Nifty has most likely reversed from 5549 and will go further down.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.7 breadth.
2.8th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty was in sideways range with upside bias.Yesterdays momentum was not there today since Nifty though within the 5550 range but was not comfortable crossing 5500 zone.Also breadth was moderately +ve only.Since the start of Wave5 from 5225,Nifty has closed above its short term correction in 7/8 days on 3 times.So if another 2-3 days Nifty is unable to move past 5550 then Nifty has most likely reversed from 5549 and will go further down.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Sep 1 update
Nifty bounced back today above 5450 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 4.4 breadth.
2.7th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty bounced strongly and closed well above 5450.Breadth was 4.4 and was the highest since the rally started from 4786.This could indicate that the bounce from 5350 is just a retracement of the fall from 5549-5348.Since a mature rally does not exhibit such +ve breadth usually.If such is the case then Nifty should break 5350 in volatile manner in the coming days.But if Nifty continues with the uptrend then it could be heading for the new highs above 5550.Bothways,I see Volatility increasing in Nifty,so sharp moves on either side can be expected.Since Sept closing will also be a quarterly closing,so I expect that the chances of Nifty breaking down in Sept are quite high,since the rally from Mar09 has lasted 6 quarters after a fall in 4quarters(Mar08-Dec08).
1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 4.4 breadth.
2.7th day since the highs of 5549.
Nifty bounced strongly and closed well above 5450.Breadth was 4.4 and was the highest since the rally started from 4786.This could indicate that the bounce from 5350 is just a retracement of the fall from 5549-5348.Since a mature rally does not exhibit such +ve breadth usually.If such is the case then Nifty should break 5350 in volatile manner in the coming days.But if Nifty continues with the uptrend then it could be heading for the new highs above 5550.Bothways,I see Volatility increasing in Nifty,so sharp moves on either side can be expected.Since Sept closing will also be a quarterly closing,so I expect that the chances of Nifty breaking down in Sept are quite high,since the rally from Mar09 has lasted 6 quarters after a fall in 4quarters(Mar08-Dec08).
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