Nifty moved up from yesterdays level with high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 3.0 breadth.
2.16th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty's upmove today was big on volumes and breadth too was +ve but the price action was only modest.Given todays breadth,Nifty could move upwards of 5900 in next few days in this pullback.5930 would act as important resistance level for Nifty.My view remains the same that Nifty would turn down for one more leg of downside.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Nov29 Update
Nifty bounced above 5800 but with lower volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 1.15 breadth.
2.15 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty has a bounce today after 4 days of fall.Nifty now faces resistance at 5850 -5930 .Nifty may rally for few days before falling back below 5700 again.I dont think Niifty has made a capitulating move for this 14 day fall,So I would look for another leg down probably a little lower than the previous low of 5690(1-3%) inorder to signal capitulation move of Nifty.Also if Nifty has already made a short term low,then Nifty should sustain above 5930-5950 levels for more upside moves.
1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 1.15 breadth.
2.15 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty has a bounce today after 4 days of fall.Nifty now faces resistance at 5850 -5930 .Nifty may rally for few days before falling back below 5700 again.I dont think Niifty has made a capitulating move for this 14 day fall,So I would look for another leg down probably a little lower than the previous low of 5690(1-3%) inorder to signal capitulation move of Nifty.Also if Nifty has already made a short term low,then Nifty should sustain above 5930-5950 levels for more upside moves.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Nov26 Update
Nifty broke below 5700 but later recovered some ground with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.15 breadth.
2.131st day since the medium term lows of 4786,14th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty slipped further and broke below 5700 levels but recovered somewhat later.Breadth is indicating a short term pullback in Nifty now though Nifty can very well fall around next support of 5500 levels before bouncing also.The strength of pullback will only determine whether Nifty Nifty's pullback is a reversal or another leg down will happen.
1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.15 breadth.
2.131st day since the medium term lows of 4786,14th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty slipped further and broke below 5700 levels but recovered somewhat later.Breadth is indicating a short term pullback in Nifty now though Nifty can very well fall around next support of 5500 levels before bouncing also.The strength of pullback will only determine whether Nifty Nifty's pullback is a reversal or another leg down will happen.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Nov25 Update
Nifty was flat to sideways till last 1 hr but came down below 5800 during last 1 hr with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.25 breadth.
2.130th day since the lows of 4786 and 13th day since the highs of 6388.
Nifty closed just below 5800.today was 3rd consecutive down day.Nifty in this week is going down but the momentum is moderate.Nifty is trading well below the critical level of 5900 so retracement upto 5500 is open path now.But the time Nifty has taken till now ie 13 days without a decent pullback makes me think that there should be a bounce here and only then should Nifty come to around 5500 levels if at all it is to go around those levels.My timeline for this to playout will be till around 10dec.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.25 breadth.
2.130th day since the lows of 4786 and 13th day since the highs of 6388.
Nifty closed just below 5800.today was 3rd consecutive down day.Nifty in this week is going down but the momentum is moderate.Nifty is trading well below the critical level of 5900 so retracement upto 5500 is open path now.But the time Nifty has taken till now ie 13 days without a decent pullback makes me think that there should be a bounce here and only then should Nifty come to around 5500 levels if at all it is to go around those levels.My timeline for this to playout will be till around 10dec.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Nov24 Update
Nifty moved sideways till midday but slid after that and closed below 5900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.57 breadth.
2.129th day since the previous medium term lows of 4786,12th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty slipped later in the day to close below 5900.Today was 12th day of the downside ,so Nifty may be nearing a decent pullback or a final bottom.A fall from here could be moderate only(~5400),since the timewise surprise is not there.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.57 breadth.
2.129th day since the previous medium term lows of 4786,12th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty slipped later in the day to close below 5900.Today was 12th day of the downside ,so Nifty may be nearing a decent pullback or a final bottom.A fall from here could be moderate only(~5400),since the timewise surprise is not there.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Nov23 Update
Nifty reversed yesterdays move breaking the fridays low of 5863 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.26 breadth.
2.128th day since the lows of 4786,11th day since the highs of 6338.
Niftys selloff today indicates that yesterdays move was a dead cat bounce and lower levels are ahead.Nifty may move in and around 5800-5900 for few days.I expect there should be one final push down with momentum that should result in capitulation.My expected levels are from 5400-5700.Though I am also ready for downside surpises.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.26 breadth.
2.128th day since the lows of 4786,11th day since the highs of 6338.
Niftys selloff today indicates that yesterdays move was a dead cat bounce and lower levels are ahead.Nifty may move in and around 5800-5900 for few days.I expect there should be one final push down with momentum that should result in capitulation.My expected levels are from 5400-5700.Though I am also ready for downside surpises.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Nov22 Update
Nifty bounced back today closing above 6000 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 2.1 breadth.
2.10 the day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty may have formed a short term bottom at 5863.With todays big bounce,I expect todays rally may be Wave B(A-B-C correction) or a new impulsive move.If todays upmove is just retracement of the 2 week fall then 6150-6200 is the upper target with intermediate resistance coming in at 6050 also.But if Nifty sustains above the resistance levels, then it may be headed to new highs above 6300.For ABC correction I expect the time frame to be upto 10dec( 3weeks more).
1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 2.1 breadth.
2.10 the day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty may have formed a short term bottom at 5863.With todays big bounce,I expect todays rally may be Wave B(A-B-C correction) or a new impulsive move.If todays upmove is just retracement of the 2 week fall then 6150-6200 is the upper target with intermediate resistance coming in at 6050 also.But if Nifty sustains above the resistance levels, then it may be headed to new highs above 6300.For ABC correction I expect the time frame to be upto 10dec( 3weeks more).
Friday, November 19, 2010
Nov19 Update
Nifty moved in range of 5950-6000 before breaking down below 5900 with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.8% with 0.2 breadth.
2.126th day since the lows of 4786,9th day since the highs of 6338.
3.2nd consecutive week down.Nifty down by 6.7% in 2 weeks.
Nifty closed below 5900 after 9 weeks.Since Nifty has closed below weekly low 5Ema today,So Monday should see Nifty bouncing back indicating short term bottom.
But If there is no bounce on Monday,then I see Nifty to crash down on Monday/Tuesday and make a panic low probably below 5400 levels.Though I expect a bounce from lower levels and a rally towards year end,I am cautious about whether a Top(for rally from Mar09) has been formed on the Nifty.(should get clear within few weeks time).
1.Nifty down by 1.8% with 0.2 breadth.
2.126th day since the lows of 4786,9th day since the highs of 6338.
3.2nd consecutive week down.Nifty down by 6.7% in 2 weeks.
Nifty closed below 5900 after 9 weeks.Since Nifty has closed below weekly low 5Ema today,So Monday should see Nifty bouncing back indicating short term bottom.
But If there is no bounce on Monday,then I see Nifty to crash down on Monday/Tuesday and make a panic low probably below 5400 levels.Though I expect a bounce from lower levels and a rally towards year end,I am cautious about whether a Top(for rally from Mar09) has been formed on the Nifty.(should get clear within few weeks time).
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Nov18 Update
Nifty dropped below the previous swing lows of 5937 but bounced from just above 5900 levels with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.5 breadth.
2.125th day since the lows of 4786,8th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty's closing at/above day low 5ema indicates capitulation underway for the fall of 8 days after a bounce from ~5900 levels.If Nifty falls further from here with momentum below 5900 then deeper levels of 5500 and below may be there in next few days.Else Nifty may either consolidate here from 5900-6150/6200 range and then resume the downtrend or may continue moving up to make new highs above 6300.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.5 breadth.
2.125th day since the lows of 4786,8th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty's closing at/above day low 5ema indicates capitulation underway for the fall of 8 days after a bounce from ~5900 levels.If Nifty falls further from here with momentum below 5900 then deeper levels of 5500 and below may be there in next few days.Else Nifty may either consolidate here from 5900-6150/6200 range and then resume the downtrend or may continue moving up to make new highs above 6300.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Nov16 Update
Nifty had a selloff and closed below 6000 with higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 2.2% with 0.13 breadth.
2.124th day since the medium term lows of 4786,7 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty sold off below 6000 levels with big volumes and very -ve breadth.This week is continuing with the momentum of last week,this to me implies that Nifty should have some capitulation and then a bounce before the end of this week.If this week turns out to be -ve closing(which looks likely) then the big move up of Diwali week was part of weekly correction that started from first week of October ie this is 7th week of correction.So the low formed this week should likely be the low(within 1% range) for the next 6-8 weeks.
1.Nifty down by 2.2% with 0.13 breadth.
2.124th day since the medium term lows of 4786,7 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty sold off below 6000 levels with big volumes and very -ve breadth.This week is continuing with the momentum of last week,this to me implies that Nifty should have some capitulation and then a bounce before the end of this week.If this week turns out to be -ve closing(which looks likely) then the big move up of Diwali week was part of weekly correction that started from first week of October ie this is 7th week of correction.So the low formed this week should likely be the low(within 1% range) for the next 6-8 weeks.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Nov15 Update
Nifty edged up above 6100 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.67 breadth.
2.123rd day since the medium term lows of 4786,6 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6100 with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Both bearish and bullish options are open for now.Though I expect a correction on monthly basis in November that would imply Nifty remaining in bear mode for next 8-10 days.But If Nifty is headed up from here then there could be a correction in 1/2nd week of december.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.67 breadth.
2.123rd day since the medium term lows of 4786,6 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6100 with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Both bearish and bullish options are open for now.Though I expect a correction on monthly basis in November that would imply Nifty remaining in bear mode for next 8-10 days.But If Nifty is headed up from here then there could be a correction in 1/2nd week of december.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Nov12 Update
Nifty had a selloff and it went below 6100 and closed below it with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.18 breadth.
2.122nd day since the medium term lows of 4786,5th day since the highs of 6338,11 days since the lows of 5937.
3.Nifty retraced 80% of the weekly gains of previous week.(295up/241down).
4.Nifty closed well below 5ema on weekly basis since the start of this rally from 4786.
Nifty had a good selloff and closed well below 6100.Nifty is undergoing momentum selling.Since last week's rise has been retraced 80% on weekly basis,this to me implies Nifty is weak and should undergo further deeper correction in the coming days.There is likely to be bigger fall before expiry.
1.Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.18 breadth.
2.122nd day since the medium term lows of 4786,5th day since the highs of 6338,11 days since the lows of 5937.
3.Nifty retraced 80% of the weekly gains of previous week.(295up/241down).
4.Nifty closed well below 5ema on weekly basis since the start of this rally from 4786.
Nifty had a good selloff and closed well below 6100.Nifty is undergoing momentum selling.Since last week's rise has been retraced 80% on weekly basis,this to me implies Nifty is weak and should undergo further deeper correction in the coming days.There is likely to be bigger fall before expiry.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Nov11 Update
Nifty had a moderate selloff from 6300 with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.54 breadth.
2.121st day since the lows of 4786,10th day since the lows if 5937,4th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 6200 and daily low 5Ema,indicating that daily capitulation is done/nearly done.Here Nifty may be at critical juncture,since tomorrow is a weekly closing and a close below 6200 may keep bearish options of a fall upto ~5500 open in November series.If Nifty bounces tomorrow and closes around 6250, then the correction may well be over and higher targets of 6400-6600 may be reached.But a weekly close ~6200 or below could keep me cautious for next week.If Nifty indeed cuts down to 5500 or below in next 1-2 weeks,I would expect a bounce upto 6000+ by year end but new highs on Nifty may be difficult to say.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.54 breadth.
2.121st day since the lows of 4786,10th day since the lows if 5937,4th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 6200 and daily low 5Ema,indicating that daily capitulation is done/nearly done.Here Nifty may be at critical juncture,since tomorrow is a weekly closing and a close below 6200 may keep bearish options of a fall upto ~5500 open in November series.If Nifty bounces tomorrow and closes around 6250, then the correction may well be over and higher targets of 6400-6600 may be reached.But a weekly close ~6200 or below could keep me cautious for next week.If Nifty indeed cuts down to 5500 or below in next 1-2 weeks,I would expect a bounce upto 6000+ by year end but new highs on Nifty may be difficult to say.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Nov10 Update
Nifty moved sideways inside yesterdays range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.120th day since the medium term lows of 4786 and 9th day since the lows of 5937.
Nifty had an inside day indicating that the short term correction is not yet done.I expect sideways movement for next few days before Nifty breaks out decisively above 6350.However any sharp movement on downside below 6150 will open up new scenario on the downside.
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.120th day since the medium term lows of 4786 and 9th day since the lows of 5937.
Nifty had an inside day indicating that the short term correction is not yet done.I expect sideways movement for next few days before Nifty breaks out decisively above 6350.However any sharp movement on downside below 6150 will open up new scenario on the downside.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Nov9 Update
Nifty drifted sideways to down with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.8th day since the short term lows of 5937 and 119th day since the medium term lows of 4786.
Nifty it seems is undergoing short term correction.Nifty could fall by 2-4% in next few days and then bounce up to make new highs.After a 4 week correction ,Nifty moved up by ~5% last week,so that points to an impulsive move on weekly basis.Thus Nifty's current impulsive move should continue till there is a crack of 2-3% on weekly basis.I expect here Nifty to move up atleast till expiry and then undergo some weekly correction in early december or so.
1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.8th day since the short term lows of 5937 and 119th day since the medium term lows of 4786.
Nifty it seems is undergoing short term correction.Nifty could fall by 2-4% in next few days and then bounce up to make new highs.After a 4 week correction ,Nifty moved up by ~5% last week,so that points to an impulsive move on weekly basis.Thus Nifty's current impulsive move should continue till there is a crack of 2-3% on weekly basis.I expect here Nifty to move up atleast till expiry and then undergo some weekly correction in early december or so.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Nov8 Update
Nifty was sideways to -ve all day with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.65% with 0.83 breadth.
2.117th day since the lows of 4786.
Nifty moved in a range of 6266-6335 and closed below 6300.Nifty may well have entered a short term correction after a rally of 400 points in 6 days.If Nifty stays above 6150 this week then Nifty is likely undergoing short term correction of the impulsive move from 5930-6330,and Nifty could likely move to 6500-6600 after the correction.But if Nifty undergoes deeper cut below 6100 and sustains below that , then there could be deeper cut ahead.
1.Nifty down by 0.65% with 0.83 breadth.
2.117th day since the lows of 4786.
Nifty moved in a range of 6266-6335 and closed below 6300.Nifty may well have entered a short term correction after a rally of 400 points in 6 days.If Nifty stays above 6150 this week then Nifty is likely undergoing short term correction of the impulsive move from 5930-6330,and Nifty could likely move to 6500-6600 after the correction.But if Nifty undergoes deeper cut below 6100 and sustains below that , then there could be deeper cut ahead.
Nov5 Update
Nifty closed at new highs above 6300 on Diwali day.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.5%.
2.116th day of rally since the lows of 4786,6th day of the rally from 5937.
Nifty closed at new highs though didnot take out the earlier peak of 6357.Weekly closing was very strong ,up by 5% indicating that the weekly correction is likely over and a new impulsive move may have started.Since this week was up by 5%, so next week could be consolidation with flat weekly closing.Any close below 6084(weekly low) would signal of a move developing on the downside.
1.Nifty up by 0.5%.
2.116th day of rally since the lows of 4786,6th day of the rally from 5937.
Nifty closed at new highs though didnot take out the earlier peak of 6357.Weekly closing was very strong ,up by 5% indicating that the weekly correction is likely over and a new impulsive move may have started.Since this week was up by 5%, so next week could be consolidation with flat weekly closing.Any close below 6084(weekly low) would signal of a move developing on the downside.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Nov4 Update
Nifty bounced up above 6200 and closed well above 6250 with lower volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 1.3 breadth.
2.116 days of rally since the lows of 4786.(Since Nifty has taken out the earlier highs ,so the previous 15 days are just the correction).
Nifty bounced today and made a new yearly high.Though volumes and breadth were not strong indicating divergence.
I hold the view that since Nifty has not capitulated on weekly basis and bounced so another fall may happen for as part of the correction that started from 6284(Possibly irregular abc correction).The strong support level is 5550,so around that is the first possible target of Nifty.But if Nifty continues its uprun next week on strength and above 6350 then I may assume that correction may have ended and the upmove may continue for another 3-5 weeks without any correction.
1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 1.3 breadth.
2.116 days of rally since the lows of 4786.(Since Nifty has taken out the earlier highs ,so the previous 15 days are just the correction).
Nifty bounced today and made a new yearly high.Though volumes and breadth were not strong indicating divergence.
I hold the view that since Nifty has not capitulated on weekly basis and bounced so another fall may happen for as part of the correction that started from 6284(Possibly irregular abc correction).The strong support level is 5550,so around that is the first possible target of Nifty.But if Nifty continues its uprun next week on strength and above 6350 then I may assume that correction may have ended and the upmove may continue for another 3-5 weeks without any correction.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Nov3 update
Nifty bounced above 6150 and moved again in a narrow range of 6150-6180 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.45 breadth.
2.15th day since the highs of 6284.
Nifty's move today though +ve but was weak on breadth and was in a very narrow range.Breakout/breakdown looks imminent from here.Nifty didnot exhibit any strength in the 6150+ price range,volumes and breadth too are not confirming a strong trend.I dont expect sideways move to continue here ahead.Since Nifty has moved upto 65-70% retracement,I would look for reversal of Nifty from here.
But any strong momentum move above 6200 only will invalidate my bear scenario,for possible upside targets of 6400-6600.
1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.45 breadth.
2.15th day since the highs of 6284.
Nifty's move today though +ve but was weak on breadth and was in a very narrow range.Breakout/breakdown looks imminent from here.Nifty didnot exhibit any strength in the 6150+ price range,volumes and breadth too are not confirming a strong trend.I dont expect sideways move to continue here ahead.Since Nifty has moved upto 65-70% retracement,I would look for reversal of Nifty from here.
But any strong momentum move above 6200 only will invalidate my bear scenario,for possible upside targets of 6400-6600.
Nov2 Update
Nifty moved sideways in narrow range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by .03% with 0.9 breadth.
2.14th day since the highs of 6284.
Nifty moved in narrow range of 6094-6138 and closed flat with neutral breadth.Nifty is halting at around 60% retracement of the fall from 6284.For the bear case,Nifty can move up till about 6200 also.Only a fast momentum fall from here could give clear signal about Nifty's downfall.Daily charts are showing weakness and I don't see capitulation having happened for the weakness presisting for the last 14 days.
1.Nifty up by .03% with 0.9 breadth.
2.14th day since the highs of 6284.
Nifty moved in narrow range of 6094-6138 and closed flat with neutral breadth.Nifty is halting at around 60% retracement of the fall from 6284.For the bear case,Nifty can move up till about 6200 also.Only a fast momentum fall from here could give clear signal about Nifty's downfall.Daily charts are showing weakness and I don't see capitulation having happened for the weakness presisting for the last 14 days.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Nov1 Update
Nifty bounced above 6100 and closed above it with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 2.0 breadth.
2.13th day since the highs of 6284.
Nifty continued with its bounce for the second day though with moderate volumes. Nifty's close above 6150 will bring more confidence about the strength of this rally.I would be doubtful about this bounce as just the correction until I see strength in Nifty in 6150-6200 zone for a Bull case scenario.
For the bear case I expect that the reversal from here could be sharp and swift and breach of 6000 levels would see sudden sharp fall.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 2.0 breadth.
2.13th day since the highs of 6284.
Nifty continued with its bounce for the second day though with moderate volumes. Nifty's close above 6150 will bring more confidence about the strength of this rally.I would be doubtful about this bounce as just the correction until I see strength in Nifty in 6150-6200 zone for a Bull case scenario.
For the bear case I expect that the reversal from here could be sharp and swift and breach of 6000 levels would see sudden sharp fall.
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