Nifty edged up towards 6150 with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.55% with 2.4 breadth.
2.24th day since the lows of 5690,38th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty is in an upmove and moved up for 3rd consecutive day.Price,volumes,breadth in the upmove are not indicating any strength or impulsive behaviour.Nifty may be forming a Top here if there is a reversal from here and Nifty closes below 6000 levels.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Dec30 Update
Nifty edged upwards of 6100 levels with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.3 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 5690,37th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6100 levels.Price action like yesterday was moderate and breadth and volumes were also neutral to moderate.This does not look like an impulsive thrust after few days of consolidation around 5700-6000 levels.Though Nifty can edge up towards 6150-6200 levels in next few days,I would be cautious on the longs here.
1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.3 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 5690,37th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6100 levels.Price action like yesterday was moderate and breadth and volumes were also neutral to moderate.This does not look like an impulsive thrust after few days of consolidation around 5700-6000 levels.Though Nifty can edge up towards 6150-6200 levels in next few days,I would be cautious on the longs here.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Dec29 Update
Nifty bounced up today but with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.22nd day since the lows of 5690,36th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty resolved itself on the upside after few days of consolidation around 6000 levels.But the breakout is modest in price and low on volumes and breadth indicating weak momentum.strength of todays breakout in next few days will decide whether it is an impulsive breakout or final surge to complete the correction of the 3 week fall in November.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.22nd day since the lows of 5690,36th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty resolved itself on the upside after few days of consolidation around 6000 levels.But the breakout is modest in price and low on volumes and breadth indicating weak momentum.strength of todays breakout in next few days will decide whether it is an impulsive breakout or final surge to complete the correction of the 3 week fall in November.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Dec28 Update
Nifty was sideways in a very narrow range of 28 points with very low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty flat with 1.0 breadth.
2.21st day since the lows of 5690,35th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a very narrow range and closed below 6000 levels.6000-6050 is giving considerable resistance to Nifty,so any breakout above should see sharp move of 100-150 points.I think there is a possibility of such a move this week.I am not expecting breakdown from this consolidation around 6000 levels.
1.Nifty flat with 1.0 breadth.
2.21st day since the lows of 5690,35th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a very narrow range and closed below 6000 levels.6000-6050 is giving considerable resistance to Nifty,so any breakout above should see sharp move of 100-150 points.I think there is a possibility of such a move this week.I am not expecting breakdown from this consolidation around 6000 levels.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Dec27 Update
Nifty edged up at open but moved sideways later with very low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 5690,34th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty was sideways in a 50 point range and closed below 6000.Since last 4 days,Nifty is moving sideways/consolidating around 6000 levels.I expect next move of Nifty will likely be up in next few days.Breach of 5850 on downside from here will indicate bearish implications to me.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 5690,34th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty was sideways in a 50 point range and closed below 6000.Since last 4 days,Nifty is moving sideways/consolidating around 6000 levels.I expect next move of Nifty will likely be up in next few days.Breach of 5850 on downside from here will indicate bearish implications to me.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Dec24 Update
Nifty opened gapped down but recovered later to close above 6000 with very low volumes and +ve breadth.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2.19th day since the lows of 5690,33rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6000 on weekly closing but with very low volumes.Short term trend is up with important resistance at 6050 and 6150-6200.Since Nifty's retracement of the fall from 6338-5690 is slower then the fall,so this short term upmove is likely corrective in nature.I expect the likely target of this upmove to be 6150-6200 but it can also make new highs above 6350 but not much higher than 6338.A drop down is expected to happen in Nifty inorder to complete the first fall from 6338-5690.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2.19th day since the lows of 5690,33rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6000 on weekly closing but with very low volumes.Short term trend is up with important resistance at 6050 and 6150-6200.Since Nifty's retracement of the fall from 6338-5690 is slower then the fall,so this short term upmove is likely corrective in nature.I expect the likely target of this upmove to be 6150-6200 but it can also make new highs above 6350 but not much higher than 6338.A drop down is expected to happen in Nifty inorder to complete the first fall from 6338-5690.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Dec23 Update
Nifty was sideways today in a narrow range with very low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.8 breadth.
2.18th day since the lows of 5690 and 32nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a very narrow range of about 40 points today.I expect the range compression to be resolved in up/down move of Nifty shortly.Since the short term trend is up,so Nifty is likely to resolve itself on the upside.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.8 breadth.
2.18th day since the lows of 5690 and 32nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a very narrow range of about 40 points today.I expect the range compression to be resolved in up/down move of Nifty shortly.Since the short term trend is up,so Nifty is likely to resolve itself on the upside.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Dec22 Update
Nifty gave up some of the gains registered in last 2 days with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.15 breadth.
2.17th day since the lows of 5690,31st day since the highs of 6338
Nifty is fluttering at 6000 levels.I expect nifty to clear this hurdle and target 6150 levels in next few days.But Incase Nifty slides down from here,downside should be limited to ~5800 levels.Any weakness at/above 6150 could result in a major fall in Nifty.Next 2-4 weeks could be crucial for Nifty.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.15 breadth.
2.17th day since the lows of 5690,31st day since the highs of 6338
Nifty is fluttering at 6000 levels.I expect nifty to clear this hurdle and target 6150 levels in next few days.But Incase Nifty slides down from here,downside should be limited to ~5800 levels.Any weakness at/above 6150 could result in a major fall in Nifty.Next 2-4 weeks could be crucial for Nifty.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Dec16 Update
Nifty drifted towards 5850 but bounced back strongly to above 5950 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.3 breadth.
2.14th day since the lows of 5690,28th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty bounced strongly towards closing from around 5850 levels.I expect Nifty to move to 6100+ levels now to complete the corrective rally from 5690.Since Nifty may be moving in a range of 200-300 points (5800/5900-6200),so up/down moves of Nifty may be confusing for the next few days.I expect Nifty to complete the corrective rally around month end.But incase Nifty crosses above 6200 with volumes and momentum,then Nifty could make new highs above 6300.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.3 breadth.
2.14th day since the lows of 5690,28th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty bounced strongly towards closing from around 5850 levels.I expect Nifty to move to 6100+ levels now to complete the corrective rally from 5690.Since Nifty may be moving in a range of 200-300 points (5800/5900-6200),so up/down moves of Nifty may be confusing for the next few days.I expect Nifty to complete the corrective rally around month end.But incase Nifty crosses above 6200 with volumes and momentum,then Nifty could make new highs above 6300.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Dec15 Update
Nifty drifted down below 5900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.35 breadth.
2.13th day since the lows of 5690,27th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5900 .The move since 5690 is corrective in nature.If Nifty is starting its new leg down, then it should move with momentum below 5690 else if Nifty moves down for 1-2 days to around 5700 & then bounces then Nifty will likely head towards 6100+.On the downside,I consider strong support at 5200 though 5350-5550 also act as support areas.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.35 breadth.
2.13th day since the lows of 5690,27th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5900 .The move since 5690 is corrective in nature.If Nifty is starting its new leg down, then it should move with momentum below 5690 else if Nifty moves down for 1-2 days to around 5700 & then bounces then Nifty will likely head towards 6100+.On the downside,I consider strong support at 5200 though 5350-5550 also act as support areas.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Dec14 Update
Nifty was ranged in 5900-5950 today and closed near 5950 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 2.8 breadth.
2.12th day since the lows of 5690 and 26th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved up for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty should likely take out the previous swing highs of 6069 before giving any pause in this rally.I expect the move upto/above 6069 in next few days.Time taken since the highs/lows indicate that this upmove is likely a corrective move.I don't expect a deeper cut in december but I would remain cautious if the rally shows signs of weakening around 6100+.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 2.8 breadth.
2.12th day since the lows of 5690 and 26th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved up for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty should likely take out the previous swing highs of 6069 before giving any pause in this rally.I expect the move upto/above 6069 in next few days.Time taken since the highs/lows indicate that this upmove is likely a corrective move.I don't expect a deeper cut in december but I would remain cautious if the rally shows signs of weakening around 6100+.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Dec13 Update
Nifty moved up above 5900 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 3.3 breadth.
2.11days since the lows of 5690,25 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5900 levels and above 5ema.It appears Nifty is in 5800-6100 range now.I see the move of last 11 days ie since 5690 as corrective move of the downfall from 6338-5690.If true then Nifty should topout at ~6100-6200 levels and then fall again below 5690.
Any momentum fall below 5690 will likely be 2nd leg of the downfall.
On the bullish side,Nifty may have formed a double bottom or may form a double bottom around/Just below 5690.If such a move happens that does not go much below 5690,only then I would consider that as double bottom.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 3.3 breadth.
2.11days since the lows of 5690,25 days since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5900 levels and above 5ema.It appears Nifty is in 5800-6100 range now.I see the move of last 11 days ie since 5690 as corrective move of the downfall from 6338-5690.If true then Nifty should topout at ~6100-6200 levels and then fall again below 5690.
Any momentum fall below 5690 will likely be 2nd leg of the downfall.
On the bullish side,Nifty may have formed a double bottom or may form a double bottom around/Just below 5690.If such a move happens that does not go much below 5690,only then I would consider that as double bottom.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Dec10 Update
Nifty dipped at open and bounced back to close above 5850 with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 3.0 breadth.
2.10th day since the lows of 5690,24th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty bounced today to close above 5850.Nifty may have reversed on upside for short term here.If true then Nifty would likely go above 6069/6100 levels in next few days.
Nifty is undergoing medium term correction and I don't see it has been completed.
I expect another leg on downside.So this upside may just be part of corrective move of Nifty since 5690 .Once this corrective move is over,most likely above 6100/6150 ,Nifty may slide down sharply.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 3.0 breadth.
2.10th day since the lows of 5690,24th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty bounced today to close above 5850.Nifty may have reversed on upside for short term here.If true then Nifty would likely go above 6069/6100 levels in next few days.
Nifty is undergoing medium term correction and I don't see it has been completed.
I expect another leg on downside.So this upside may just be part of corrective move of Nifty since 5690 .Once this corrective move is over,most likely above 6100/6150 ,Nifty may slide down sharply.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Dec9 Update
Nifty had a selloff today in the 2nd half with higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 2.3% with .07 breadth.
2.9th day since the lows of 5690 and 23rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty was sideways till noon but after that selloff started and Nifty closed below 5800 with very -ve breadth.2 days in a row Nifty has been down with very -ve breadth.Todays breadth is pointing to breadth capitulation but the price action does not tell so.Nearest support is at 5550 and major support at 5200.I expect Nifty to take rebound from support levels in next few days.If Nifty rebounds from ~5500 levels, I would keep the option of Nifty going back to 5200 levels open unless 6100-6150 is taken out.
1.Nifty down by 2.3% with .07 breadth.
2.9th day since the lows of 5690 and 23rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty was sideways till noon but after that selloff started and Nifty closed below 5800 with very -ve breadth.2 days in a row Nifty has been down with very -ve breadth.Todays breadth is pointing to breadth capitulation but the price action does not tell so.Nearest support is at 5550 and major support at 5200.I expect Nifty to take rebound from support levels in next few days.If Nifty rebounds from ~5500 levels, I would keep the option of Nifty going back to 5200 levels open unless 6100-6150 is taken out.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Dec8 Update
Nifty gapped down and drifted below 5900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.15 breadth.
2.8th day since the lows of 5690 and 22nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty was down for 4th consecutive day with very -ve breadth.Nifty's closing below daily 5ema low,indicates that if this is correction of the 380 point rise from 5690, then it should be over Else if the fall continues then Nifty would likely make new low below 5690.On the downside 5200 is a major support for Nifty though 5350-5550 are also support zones.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.15 breadth.
2.8th day since the lows of 5690 and 22nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty was down for 4th consecutive day with very -ve breadth.Nifty's closing below daily 5ema low,indicates that if this is correction of the 380 point rise from 5690, then it should be over Else if the fall continues then Nifty would likely make new low below 5690.On the downside 5200 is a major support for Nifty though 5350-5550 are also support zones.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Dec7 Update
Nifty drifted down today but recovered some ground later with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.37 breadth.
2.7th day since the lows of 5690,21st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed in the red with -ve breadth for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty is in corrective mode in short term,and I expect Nifty to resolve on the upside from here.But if Nifty moves further down from hereon, then new lows below 5690 may be possible.Strength of Nifty on any upmove will determine Whether Nifty can make new highs or touch earlier highs of 6338.Nifty will face resistance in 6150-6200 zone on the upside.
1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.37 breadth.
2.7th day since the lows of 5690,21st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed in the red with -ve breadth for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty is in corrective mode in short term,and I expect Nifty to resolve on the upside from here.But if Nifty moves further down from hereon, then new lows below 5690 may be possible.Strength of Nifty on any upmove will determine Whether Nifty can make new highs or touch earlier highs of 6338.Nifty will face resistance in 6150-6200 zone on the upside.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Dec6 Update
Nifty gapped up and went above 6050 but later retraced below 6000 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty flat closing with 0.7 breadth.
2.6th day since the low of 5690 and 20th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty retraced all the gains of morning and closed below 6000 levels.Nifty retraced from 60% level ie ~6080 indicating resistance at that point.I expect Nifty to attempt that level again and close above it for the capitulating move.If Nifty reverses from around 6100 level in next few days,I expect that the move on downside could be very sharp and 5690 may be taken out in 1-2 days.Weakness below 5950/5850 will be critical for further downsides.
1.Nifty flat closing with 0.7 breadth.
2.6th day since the low of 5690 and 20th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty retraced all the gains of morning and closed below 6000 levels.Nifty retraced from 60% level ie ~6080 indicating resistance at that point.I expect Nifty to attempt that level again and close above it for the capitulating move.If Nifty reverses from around 6100 level in next few days,I expect that the move on downside could be very sharp and 5690 may be taken out in 1-2 days.Weakness below 5950/5850 will be critical for further downsides.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Dec3 Update
Nifty was sideways today with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.24 breadth.
2.5th day since the lows of 5690 and 19th day since the highs of 6338.
3.Nifty up by 4.2% on weekly,reversing 1.5 bars of the 3 week fall in 1 week.
Nifty moved sideways and closed below 6000 levels.This was first pause of the Nifty and Nifty appears to be set for further gains early next week probably upto 6100 or so.This rally appears to me a corrective rally.Signs of further weakness in upmove will give indications of a reversal.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.24 breadth.
2.5th day since the lows of 5690 and 19th day since the highs of 6338.
3.Nifty up by 4.2% on weekly,reversing 1.5 bars of the 3 week fall in 1 week.
Nifty moved sideways and closed below 6000 levels.This was first pause of the Nifty and Nifty appears to be set for further gains early next week probably upto 6100 or so.This rally appears to me a corrective rally.Signs of further weakness in upmove will give indications of a reversal.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Dec2 Update
Nifty continued with its upmove and closed above 6000 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.9 breadth.
2.4th day since the lows if 5690,18th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6000 levels but moved in a very narrow range of 49 points during the day.Till today Nifty has retraced about 53% of its fall.The scenarios that I have with me are:
Bullish: Nifty will undergo mild pullback upto 5850/5900 and then continue its upward journey.
Bearish:1)Nifty may reverse from here from around 6050 levels and make a deep cut below 5400 in next 6-8 days.2)Nifty reverses from around 6050 and makes a low just below 5690 level(with higher weekly closing though) and bounces back towards 6300 levels.
Which of the scenarios will play out is difficult to say(or may be some other scenario).I look for weakening of the upside strength here and then reversal first.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.9 breadth.
2.4th day since the lows if 5690,18th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 6000 levels but moved in a very narrow range of 49 points during the day.Till today Nifty has retraced about 53% of its fall.The scenarios that I have with me are:
Bullish: Nifty will undergo mild pullback upto 5850/5900 and then continue its upward journey.
Bearish:1)Nifty may reverse from here from around 6050 levels and make a deep cut below 5400 in next 6-8 days.2)Nifty reverses from around 6050 and makes a low just below 5690 level(with higher weekly closing though) and bounces back towards 6300 levels.
Which of the scenarios will play out is difficult to say(or may be some other scenario).I look for weakening of the upside strength here and then reversal first.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Dec1 Update
Nifty bounced up sharply with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 6.8 breadth.
2.3rd day since the lows of 5690,17th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5950 levels,above the resistance zone of 5930.Todays move exhibited good strength,so if sustained for another few days could indicate that it is an impulsive move.But Nifty has not formed a double bottom for such a sharp slide of 3 weeks,so I would look for a Pullback/Pause of this rally to see till What levels will Nifty retrace.I expect the downleg to begin sometime next week.If that does not happen,Nifty could well make a new high in December and crack down in early January.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 6.8 breadth.
2.3rd day since the lows of 5690,17th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5950 levels,above the resistance zone of 5930.Todays move exhibited good strength,so if sustained for another few days could indicate that it is an impulsive move.But Nifty has not formed a double bottom for such a sharp slide of 3 weeks,so I would look for a Pullback/Pause of this rally to see till What levels will Nifty retrace.I expect the downleg to begin sometime next week.If that does not happen,Nifty could well make a new high in December and crack down in early January.
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