Dec30 Update

Nifty moved in about 70 point range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 1.0 breadth.
2.283rd day since the highs of 6338,8th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty ended the week about 2% down.Nifty made a new weekly closing low.Nifty closing indicates signs of breakdown.Next week ,I expect Nifty to drop down big if this week's closing is real breakdown, But if Nifty just hovers around 4500-4700 levels then this is capitulation of Nifty and Nifty is likely to bounce big in coming weeks.Range for this year comes out to 1660.Previous year range was 1663.

Dec 27 Update

Nifty moved in about 80 point range with very low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.7 breadth.
2.280th day since the highs of 6338,5th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty is in 100 point range since last 4 days.This week has very low volumes , so it is likely to be narrow range week between 4700-4900, as I think Nifty is slightly bullish at this point.Only if Nifty takes strong momentum on downside , do I see risk of Nifty going down to 4300 and below in short term.

Dec26 Update

Nifty moved in 69 point range around 4750 with very low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 1.85 breadth.
2.279th day since the highs of 6338, 38th day since the swing highs of 5399,4th day since the swing lows of 4531.

Nifty moved further up and closed above 4750.Nifty started this week with +ve bias with very low holiday week volumes.I expect Nifty to trade with +ve bias all of this week.Attempt at 4900 is likely in this week.

Dec23 Update

Nifty paused today moving in a narrow range with very low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.3 breadth.
2.278th day since the highs of 6338,37th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty closed the week with gain of 1.4%. Its 3 days now since the lows of 4531.Nifty is likely to attempt higher levels of 4850-4900 next week.If Nifty has formed medium term bottom @4531(likely) , then 5100-5200 levels are likely by 1st week of January before Nifty shows some correction or Pause.Last week of december is +ve for Nifty, and I expect a +ve closing bias for next week.The ranges for this year and quarter are likely to end at 1660 for 2011 and 868 for Q4.

Dec22 Update

Nifty extended its gain with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.4 breadth.
2. 277th day since the highs of 6338, 36th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty closed above 4700 today.Nifty has bounced about 4.0% from the lowest closing.If Nifty sustains this bounce for another 2-3 days, then this is a sustainable bottom, since this was 4th attempt at 4700 and Nifty only breached that by 3-4%.Monthly and quarterly range now stand at 568 and 868 points.

Dec21 Update

Nifty bounced strongly with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.3% with 1.9 breadth.
2.276th day since the highs of 6338,35th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty's strong bounce indicates that bottom is likely made @4531 levels for short term atleast.Any further extension of the bounce to 4900+ will indicate that it's a medium term bottom and Nifty in that case shud remain in Upside move/bias for next few weeks ie 8-10 weeks.

Dec20 Update

Nifty extended its losses and closed below 4600 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.39 breadth.
2.275th day since the highs of 6338, 34th day since the swing highs of 5399.


Today was 9th day since the swing highs of 5099 of Nifty.Nifty has closed below 4700 for 3rd consecutive day but the volumes are stagnant/decreasing with declines alongwith increasing breadth. This indicates to me that Nifty is likely to bounce from around here.The kind of bounce will determine about the character of bottom at 4500.December range till today is now 568 points.

Dec19 Update

Nifty tanked further below 4600 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.25 breadth.
2. 274th day since the highs of 6338, 33rd day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty breached 4600 levels today but recovered to close above it.Today was 8th day from the swing highs of 5099.Nifty has reached inflection point here, since Nifty has breached 4700 levels convincingly now but has not cracked big below it. If Nifty stays @4500 levels for lows in this week, then that could very well be the Medium term lows of Nifty.December range is 544 points,quarterly range is 844 points and yearly range is 1626 points till today.

Dec16 Update

Nifty cracked down today to close below 4700 with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 273rd day since the highs of 6338, 32nd day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty did weekly close below 4700 today.So this is either capitulation or Nifty could make a big drop from here.Next week will decide that but I expect Nifty shud be capitulating here with downside limited to ~4500+. Nifty formed a new low today, expanding ranges of all timeframes.

Dec15 Update

Nifty broke 4700 today but closed above it with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.4 breadth.
2. 272nd day since the highs of 6338, 31st day since the swing highs of 5399, 15th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty is retesting the earlier swing lows of 4639.Nifty is retesting 4700 levels for 4th time and till now is lacking momentum for a big leg down. I see the chances of sustainable medium term upmove from here if Nifty does not break 4600-4700 zone significantly in next 1 week or so.December range till today is 426 points.

Dec14 Update

Nifty traded in 100 point band with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.5 breadth.
2. 271st day since the highs of 6338, 30th day since the swing highs of 5399, 14th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty is hovering around the support zone of 4800.Next 2 days are going to be important for Nifty.Any high volume momentum breach of 4700, though unlikely in this expiry but if it happens then could see much lower levels.If Nifty remains in this 4600-4900 zone in december, then that could be medium term bottom formation of Nifty.

Dec13 Update

Nifty found some bounce from lower 4700 and closed at 4800 with low volumes and neutral breadth.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.7 breadth.
2. 270th day since the highs of 6338, 29th day since the swing highs of 5399, 13th day since the swing lows of 4639.

Nifty is revisiting 4700 level for the 4th time.Till Nifty remains and closes below 4950 , Nifty's bounce is not reliable.This week's closing is important as it shud clear intermediate term view.This month's range till now is 371 points.I don't expect this month's range to go beyond 500 levels , so any attempt at 4600 levels shud be seen cautiously.

Dec12 Update

Nifty went further down towards 4750 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 2.2% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 269th day since the highs of 6338, 28th day since the swing highs of 5339,12th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty has now retraced almost 80% of its upmove from 4639-5099 in 3 days.Nifty is testing 4700 zone for the 4th time since August.Last time 4700 was breached marginally.Nifty may further breach 4700-4600 zone marginally and hover around here for sometime for capitulation if it does not crack down big from here.December range till now is 344 points.

Dec9 Update

Nifty slid sharply below 4900 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.44 breadth.
2. 268th day since the highs of 6338,27th day since the swing highs of 5399,11th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty has retraced sharply in the last 2 days nearly 60% of the advance from 4639-5099.If the downside momentum sustains then Nifty could again retest/breach 4639 next week.Overall I expect Nifty to remain in sideways consolidation for 3 weeks in december.

Dec7 Update

Nifty extended upto 5100 levels but gave up the gains with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.5% with 0.15 breadth.
2. 266th day since the highs of 6338, 25th day since the swing highs of 5399,9th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty is hovering around 5050 levels since last 3 days.There is likely some more steam left in this short term term rally.If Nifty crosses 5200 on weekly basis this week or next week, then the correction that follows would be buy on dips.But if Nifty stays around this zone for next few weeks , then a new low may be likely by first half of january.December range till today is 183 points.

Dec5 Update

Nifty moved in a narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.9 breadth.
2. 265th day since the highs of 6338, 24th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty range and volumes were very low today.Today was 8th day of the bounce from 4639 lows.Next 2 days of move should throw some light whether Nifty may go down to 4700 in December or there would be 5200+ levels by end of this month.

Dec2 Update

Nifty moved further up with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.3% with 2.3 breadth.
2.264th day since the highs of 6338,23rd day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty has bounced strongly from sub 4700 levels in last 7 days.Nifty is in good short term momentum and is heading into resistance zone of 5100+. Next week is likely to see Nifty Pullback.A new low by next week looks less likely so I expect Nifty to make a higher low in the pullback and reattempt the highs of this upmove after pullback.New low looks more probable now in first half of January.

Dec1 Update

Nifty continued with its upside with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 0.15 breadth.
2.263rd day since the highs of 6338, 22nd day since the swing highs of 5399,6 days since the lows of 4639/4706.

Nifty gapped up but gave away the gains by closing.There was big divergence in breadth/price today indicating pofit booking at higher levels and skepticism about the upmove.Nifty's intraday reversal points that there could be range bound move between 4800-5000 for few days before Nifty moves up towards 5100-5200 levels.Today's range was 95 points.

Nov30 Update

Nifty tested 4750 and recovered to close above 4800 with high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.63 breadth.
2.262nd day since the highs of 6338, 21st day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty is in about 100 point range in this week.This week is turning to be small range week.Nifty is in short term uptrend and could test 4700-4750 again by next week and if that is not breached then Nifty could likely head towards 5000+ level after.November has ended with a range of 687 points and range in this quarter is 760 points till today.

Nov29 Update

Nifty traded sideways after yesterday's big move with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.65 breadth.
2. 261st day since the highs of 6338, 20th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty dropped down today.Nifty may have some steam left in its short term upmove.This week's close is likely to clear the view of next 4-6 weeks timeframe.Nifty is diverging on weekly scale , so any retest/breach of 4639 lows is going to be a buying opportunity.But this may or may not happen in december expiry also.

Nov28 Update

Nifty bounced strongly to close above 4850 with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.0% with 3.0 breadth.
2.260th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty's bounce indicates that Nifty is forming a base round 4600 levels.The severity of bounce indicates that Nifty may remain in upward bias for atleast 3-5 days.Retest of 4639 is likely to happen either by next week, but if that does not happen then December is likely to trade with upward bias upto 5100 levels.November's range till today is 687 points.

Nov25 Update

Nifty was sideways today with lower volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 1.3 breadth.
2.259th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty moved in 74 point range and closed just above 4700 weekly.This was 4th consecutive down week.Nifty is pausing here and may have some more steam left on downside for next week, though I expect it to be not below 4500 levels.But if Nifty bounces and closes above 4900 in next few days, then 4639 is likely a medium term bottom.This week's range was 234 points after 391 points previous week.

Nov24 Update

Nifty retested yesterday's low and bounced with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.4 breadth.
2. 258th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 4750 today though it again breached 4700 levels.Today was 17th day since the swing highs of 5399.Nifty may bounce/go sideways here for few days.If Nifty bounces from here to 4900-5000, then short term bottom for Nifty is in and Nifty may build a base around 4600 levels by retesting this level again over next 4-6 weeks before bouncing strongly.November range till today is 687 points.

Nov23 Update

Nifty slid sharply below 4700 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 2.2% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 257th day since the highs of 6338, 57th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty breached the lows of 4720 today and also made a new yearly low breaking 2010 low of 4675.today was 16th day since the highs of 5399.With todays fall, Nov range is 686 points.Nifty is in clear downtrend but is entering into strong support zone of 4500-4700.So if Nifty bounces from here , then reattempt at today's low shud be limited to around 4500-4600.

Nov22 Update

Nifty moved around 4800-4850 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.1 breadth.
2. 256th day since the highs of 6338, 56th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty paused today after 8 consecutive days of decline.Reattempt at 4700 shud come soon in next few days.Nifty has taken 15 days to retrace the fall from 5399-4764.Nifty may take another 1-2 weeks to complete this fall.I expect weakness to remain in Nifty till around early to mid anuary.

Nov21 Update

Nifty slid sharply and closed below 4800 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 2.5% with 0.32 breadth.
2. 255th day since the highs of 6338, 55th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed below 4800 today. today was 14th day since the swing highs of 5399 and 8th consecutive down day. Nifty is weak but hovering around support levels of 4700.Conditions are ripe for a Nifty crash to 4000 levels.Without crash, I think Nifty should only breach 4700 marginally by 100-200 points over next few weeks.November's range till today is 562 points after 671 points in October.If Nifty closes this month with around 550-600 point range then december should likely be narrower in range than November.

Nov18 Update

Nifty went below 4850 levels before recovering amid moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.44 breadth.
2.254th day since the highs of 6338,54th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty came around strong support zone of 4800 and recovered some ground.today was 13th day since the swing highs of 5399.Also today was 7th consecutive down day.Nifty is showing divergence since last 2-3 days,so pause/bounce in Nifty shud come anytime now.Nifty is down for 3 weeks now and this downmove shud last for another 2-3 weeks. Nifty's range for november is 489 points till today.This week's range was 391 points.

Nov17 Update

Nifty slide further down with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for
today.

1.Nifty down by 1.9% with 0.4 breadth.
2.253rd day since the highs of 6338,53rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty was down for 6th consecutive day.Nifty has nearly reversed gains of 3 weeks in the last 3 weeks.The downmove that I expected came early.Nifty shud take support now at 4800+ before pausing for few days in next week.After expiry Nifty is likely to make a new low below 4700.Given the slide Nifty has experienced in last 12 days, I think breach of 4700 shud be marginal only.Nov range stands at 407 points till today.

Nov16 Update

Nifty continued its slide with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.5 breadth.
2. 252nd day since the highs of 6338, 52nd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty was down for 5th consecutive day.The support of 5100-5150 has been broken decisively now.Since Nifty has been in downslide for 11 days,so a bounce is very much due.Today Nifty has closed below 5033 levels, ie the previous swing low, so the bounce that happens now should form a lower high below 5400.

Nov15 Update

Nifty came down below 5100 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.17 breadth.
2.251st day since the highs of 6338, 51st day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed below 5100 today.Earlier swing low was 5033/5049 after which Nifty jumped 350 points during Diwali week.I expect this zone could again provide support to Nifty for a decent bounce.I don't think Nifty has capitulated in its upmove from 4700 levels, so upmove is expected which may or maynot form a high above 5400 though.Nifty's monthly range till today stands at 274 points.

Nov14 Update

Nifty was struggling around 5200 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.3 breadth.
2.250th day since the highs of 6338, 50th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty moved in a range of 78 points.Today was 2ns consecutive closing below 5200 levels.Nifty is trading with -ve bias for last 2 weeks but the price action is showing slow descent.This indicates Nifty's lack of downside momentum and thus it is likely that Nifty may show a good bounce in the next few days.But since Nifty has taken 9 days of downside/sideways movement after 4 days move (5030-5399),so that upmove has good chance to be the last move.

Nov11 Update

Nifty cracked below 5200 with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.3 breadth.
2.249th day since the highs of 6338, 49th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed below 5200 on weekly basis with 2nd consecutive down week.Nifty after making a breakout high of 5399 has not reattempted that level yet.Nifty is hovering around support here and there is a decent chance of a good bounce from here, possibly upto 5400+.Nifty's move at/above 5400 shud tell whether revisit to 4700 will come or not.So next 1-2 weeks ie upto expiry shud be +ve bias.This months range till now is 184 points.

Nov9 Update

Nifty moved down today with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.33 breadth.
2. 248th day since the highs of 6338, 48th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed closer to 5200 levels.Nifty is following 3 week pattern since the lows of 4720.This is the 11th week since lows of Aug26.If Nifty bounced above 5300-5400 next week, then I would expect that to be capitulation of upmove.Nifty's range in Nov till now is very low of about 125 points only.This is expected to expand in next week timeframe.

Nov4 Update

Nifty was sideways again with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.246th day since the highs of 6338, 46th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty spent all this week in 160 point range without challenging the previous week breakout high of 5399 even once.Nifty has taken support at 5200 multiple times but it can go below that before going past 5400 levels OR Nifty could go straight above 5400 levels and then start receeding.November monthly range till now is 125 points.November is turning out to be a low range month.

Nov3 Update

Nifty again got support at 5200 and bounced with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.245th day since the highs of 6338,45th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty moved in a range of 80 points and closed flat.Nifty can test 5100 levels by next week before going above 5400 around expiry time.So broadly I expect 5350 as the decider level for Nifty having completed its correction and headed above 5400.OR Nifty could test lower 5100 levels if it does not cross 5350 in next few days.

Nov2 Update

Nifty opened gap down but recovered later to close flat with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 0.9 breadth.
2.244th day since the highs of 6338, 44th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty touched 5200 today and bounced from there.Nifty may have completed the correction , in that case Nifty shud close above 5400 levels now.But Nifty could move in 5250-5350 range also for few days.Range in this week till now is 156 points.

Nov1 Update

Nifty came down below 5300 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.55 breadth.
2.243rd day since the highs of 6338, 43rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty was in red for second consecutive day.Nifty is approaching 5150-5200 zone which shud provide support to Nifty.Even if Nifty breaches the 5150+ zone, I expect Nifty to go above 5400 in next few days.

Oct31 Update

Nifty moved sideways in a narrow range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 1.1 breadth.
2.242nd day since the highs of 6338, 42nd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty moved in a range of 46 points today.Nifty has paused after 1 day of big breakout.This indicates to me that there is limited price appreciation from here.Nifty remains in short term uptrend, so there could be some volatility in 5200-5500 range for next few days.Nifty ended this month with 671 point range.So november shud be less volatile in range.

Oct28 Update

Nifty gapped up and closed above 5350 levels with high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.2% with 2.0 breadth.
2.241st day sine the highs of 6338,41st day since the lows of 4720,51 weeks since the 6338 highs.

Nifty did a strong +ve close above the gap area.This was 9th week since the lows of 4747(4720).Retest of 4700 on weekly basis is still on the cards in next 4-6 weeks timeframe(~55 weeks) if Nifty stalls around 5500 or below levels.But if Nifty goes beyond 5600 levels, then I would say Nifty is undergoing ABC corrective of the 42 week fall from 6338-4720. So above 5600 levels ,I would expect Nifty to come down to ~5000 levels for B wave then.Nifty's range for this month/quarter is 671 points till now.

Oct25 Update

Nifty moved past the resistance levels of 5170 and closed above it. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 0.9 breadth.
2.239th day since the highs of 6338, 39th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has finally broken out of 5170 on upside.I would look for momentum in Nifty now above 5170 to see how long this breakout can last.Nifty has broken 450 point sideways range(4720-5170), so next logical target comes out to ~5600 levels.But this breakout can also be the last upmove and Nifty may be topping out here and could move towards 4700 level in slow motion manner in 2 months.

Oct24 Update

Nifty moved up today with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 0.75 breadth.
2.238th day since the highs of 6338, 38th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty remains stuck in around 150 point range not finding enough momentum to go beyond 5200.Given the time Nifty has taken since the lows of 4720,there shud be a capitulation upmove for Nifty to reverse in downward direction.So I expect a mild break above 5200 may happen in next few days.

Oct21 Update

Nifty slide down with very low volumes and slightly -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.6 breadth.
2.237th day since the highs of 6338, 37th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty's volume is drying up on downside.This indicates that Nifty should make atleast one more upmove above 5200.I am skeptical about upside now given the time Nifty has taken, but if Nifty goes beyond 5200 with good volumes (12k+), then Nifty could stay above 5200 for sometime.Next is Diwali week and Diwali is a turning point for our markets.

Oct20 Update

Nifty gave up the gains of yesterday with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.54 breadth.
2.236th day since the highs of 6338,36th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is hovering around 5100 levels for 7 days now.Any breakout above 5150-5200 is likely to be a fakeout now.Nifty's last downturn was of 35 days and this upmove /consolidation is on since 36 days.I expect to see Nifty reversing down by next week.

Oct19 Update

Nifty bounced back strongly with lower volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.0% with 1.85 breadth.
2.235th day since the highs of 6338,35th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has bounced after 2 days of losses.I expect 5200+ weekly closing this week.Strength of Nifty above 5200 will indicate whether this move is capitulation upmove or Nifty may move further high towards 5500.If Nifty is about to reverse in next 5-10 days then Nifty may touch 4500-4700 levels in 4-6 weeks.

Oct18 Update

Nifty moved down and stayed in a very narrow range with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.4% breadth.
2.234th day since the highs of 6338,34th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty came down amid very low volumes.If Nifty stays around 5050-5100 in next 2 days , the I expect Nifty to do weekly close above 5200.Nifty is here at critical juncture,and a close above 5200 is either the top of the upmove from 4728 or it may be continuation of the upmove.This is the 8th week since the weekly low of 4747,so Nifty is approaching a intermediate top in next 8-10 days.

hot autumn

Since middle of June,weather cooled off and there were moderate rains at regular intervals with heavy rainfall toward late August to early September.The weather after September is overall hot(ie not cool) till middle of October.This indicates turbulence till around january 2012 in the market, if the correlation is correct.

Oct17 Update

Nifty again stumbled above 5150 with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.9 breadth.
2.233rd day since the highs of 6338,33rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is bumping into 5200 resistance zone after taking support at 4700 for 2 times. Nifty has lost some of its mojo in 7 days.I don't expect Nifty to retest lows of 4700 again, so Nifty should likely pause here between 5000-5200 for few days before breaking upwards.

Oct14 Update

Nifty moved in about 85 point range with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.15 breadth.
2.232nd day since the highs of 6338,32nd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5100 today.Nifty is in uptrend since last 6 days.Nifty is facing resistance in 5100-5150 zone since last 3 days.If Nifty fails to cross 5200 next week, then I expect a -ve weekly closing and breach of 5200 in diwali week or after that.But if Nifty crosses 5200 next week then it may hover around 5350-5400 for next 2 weeks before moving further high.

Oct12 Update

Nifty powered up with above average volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.4% with 2.4 breadth.
2.230th day since the highs of 6338,30th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty seems to be in impulsive upmove.In 4 days Nifty is up by about 400 points from the lows.Breadth and volumes are good and indicate that Nifty may cross 5200 before going for a pause/halt.Nifty's range for this month till now is 381 points.

Oct12 Update

Nifty got resisted at ~5050 levels and came down below 5000 levels with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.35 breadth.
2.229th day since the highs of 6338,29th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty faced resistance at 5050 after 2 days of strong rally.Nifty should attempt this level again in next 1-2 days.If Nifty decides to pause at 5000 level this week, then I see a good chance of breakout above 5200 next week.

Oct10 Update

Nifty rose further and closed near 5000 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 2.0 breadth.
2.228th day since the highs of 6338,28th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has bounced about 250 points in 2 days after getting support at 4700 for the 3rd time.I expect Nifty to face first resistance at 5150-5200.Pause/halt at 5200 should likely result in Nifty going further upto 5400 levels.

Oct7 Update

Nifty bounced big today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.0% with 2.5 breadth.
2.227th day since the highs of 6338,27th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has bounced from around 4700 levels for 3rd time now.If the upside bias remains for another 1-2 days then Nifty may test 5200 levels by next week.On downside another test of 4700(less likely),would likely breach it by 100-200 points.I expect Nifty to be in upward bias now for next few weeks inching upto 5500 over next 4-6 weeks.Nifty's range for this week/month remains at 192 points till today.

Oct5 Update

Nifty moved in a 90 point range and closed just above 4750 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.45 breadth.
2.226th day since the highs of 6338,26th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is hovering around the lows of 4720 since 2 days.I see Nifty gaining ground from here in next few days.Since this is 3rd time Nifty is testing the levels of 4700, so a bounce from here could be strong.

Oct4 Update

Nifty fell further below 4800 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.2 breadth.
2.225th day since the highs of 6338,25th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is near the lows of 4720 .Weakness is there in Nifty but I don't see crash of Nifty below 4700 from here in near term.Nifty has taken 25 days to retest the lows, so the probability of durable bounce from here looks more likely to me,though now there could be minor breach of 4720 also.

Oct 3 Update

Nifty slid down below 4900 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.9% with 0.33 breadth.
2.224th day since the highs of 6338,24th day since the lows of 4720.

Though Nifty fell sharply today but the volumes were very low.This indicates to me that Nifty likely may not breach 4720 lows and should start rising again from here.Retest of 5200 looks to be coming in next few days.

Sep30 Update

Nifty gave up yesterday's gain and closed below 4950 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.53 breadth.
2.223rd day since the highs 6338,23rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty stays within 4900-5150 range.4900 on the lower side is providing support to Nifty.I expect that if Nifty tests upper end of range of 5150-5200 , this time it will break above it since Nifty is not breaking 4800-4900 zone.Monthly range for September is 411 points after 831 points in August.So September has been a compression month after big expansion in August.October is a month of high volatility and after 50% compression in September,there is a good chance that October monthly range to be between 550-600 points.I expect +ve bias of Nifty in October.

Sep29 Update

Nifty bounced later in the day to close above 5000 levels. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.222nd day since the highs of 6338,22nd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5000 today.Nifty may dip to 4850-4900 levels tomorrow/once again before starting its ascent.If Nifty closes around 4900 tomorrow, then Nifty may stay within 4900-5150 next week.But if Nifty closes strongly tomorrow, then Nifty may have started its ascent.

Sep28 Update

Nifty opened above 5000 but moved sideways later on and closed in the red. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.44 breadth.
2.221st day since the highs of 6338,21st day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty entered into its rangebound range of 4900-5200 again.I expect Nifty's sideways move to be finally resolved into upside push.Timewise, Nifty has spent 21 days since the lows of 4720.

Sep27 Update

Nifty bounced strongly and closed above 4950 with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.8% with 3.3 breadth.
2.220th day since the highs of 6338,20th day since the lows of 4720.


Nifty has bounced from around 4750 levels without breaching earlier lows.This rally should find resistance now in 5100-5200 zone.

Sep26 Update

Nifty went down closer to 4750 but recovered later on to close above 4800 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.3 breadth.
2.219th day since the highs of 6338,19th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty tested the lows of 4720 and bounced.I would look for Nifty's behaviour for next 2-3 days.If Nifty firms up here, then it may head back to 5200 levels.Since Nifty is testing 4700 lows after 19 days,I expect it is unlikely to be broken.

Sep23 Update

Nifty continued with its downslide with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.44 breadth.
2.218th day since the highs of 6338,18th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has retraced about 75% of the rise from 4720-5170.If Nifty does not breach(likely) 4720 next week, then this slide is capitulating move of wave2 and should be followed by Wave3 on upside.The range for the month till now is 340 points.

Sep22 Update

Nifty sold off heavily and closed just above 4900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 4.1% with 0.12 breadth.
2.217th day since the highs of 6338,17th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty's sell off brings Nifty to the lower end of the range.I read today's move as part of sideways move of Nifty going on since last 8-10 days.The velocity of downmove indicates that this may well be the capitulating move of the sideways movement.BUT I may change my view if Nifty sustains this momentum and goes down in next 2-3 days.If Nifty shows +ve bias from here,Nifty may be starting its 3rd Wave UP.

Sep21 Update

Nifty was confined in a narrow range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.15% with 1.3 breadth.
2.216th day since the highs of 6338,16th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty after making strong upmove yesterday ,paused near the resistance zone of 5200.Downside of Nifty is 4950-5000 levels.Nifty is likely to make its breakout move above 5200 now.Though it may also spend another few days around 5000-5200 also.

Sep20 Update

Nifty bounced strongly with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 2.2% with 2.1 breadth.
2.215th day since the highs of 6338,15th day since the lows of lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5100 today.Today's momentum was good and if Nifty stays above 5100 for another 1-2 days then higher levels of 5400+ should be possible by month end.Nifty was moving in 270 point range in its sideways move since last few days,so range expansion of 270 should be possible.

Sep19 Update

Nifty moved in a narrow range of 49 points with -ve bias with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.9 breadth.
2.214th day since the highs of 6338,14th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed below 5050 after moving in a very narrow range.Low volumes indicate that Nifty's sideways movement should be ending now and the upside should resume anytime now.Monthly range till today is 260 points with 9 days to go.

Sep16 Update

Nifty again got resisted at 5150 levels and closed below 5100 with high volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.83 breadth.
2.213th day since the highs of 6338, 13th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty move up for 3rd consecutive week.Nifty is undergoing sideways movement between 4900-5200 zone.Short term Nifty remains in uptrend.So the next move after the sideways move should be on the upside.

Sep15 Update

Nifty made a 125 point swing today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.25% with 1.4 breadth.
2.212th day since the highs of 6338,12th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5050 today.Range of 4950-5150 continues.I expect Nifty to breakout above 5200 soon.

Sep14 Update

Nifty moved in 100 point range and closed above 5000 levels with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 1.45 breadth.
2.211th day since the highs of 6338,11th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is moving in 4900-5050 range this week.Any +ve cues should likely push Nifty beyond 5050-5150 range in next few days.Beyond 5200, I see 5500 as next resistance level for Nifty. Nifty's range is 260 points in this month till today.
I assume the bear market of Nifty started from Nov2010 highs.So I note the days since the highs of 6338.The next Fib no's are 234-378-612. So around these days ,can expect important highs/lows.

Sep13 Update

Nifty opened in the green and filled yesterday's gap but came down later to close below 4950 with low volumes and neutral breadth.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.0 breadth.
2.210th day since the highs of 6338,10th day since the lows of 5177.

Nifty gave up its early morning gains but the weakness was limited to 4900 levels.Volumes have remained subdued in last 2-3 days.This indicates to me that Nifty's retest of 4720 lows may be limited to around 4900 levels.September being a volatile month ,I see a possibility of Nifty breaking out in next few days to 5500+ levels.

Sep12 Update

Nifty came down heavily to around 4900 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.25% with 0.28 breadth.
2.209th day since the highs of 6338,9th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed below 4950, 2nd consecutive down day.Volumes were low today.If Nifty goes for a retest @4700 levels(looks less likely to me) than Nifty may well remain in 4700-5200 zone till expiry.But If Nifty recovers from around these levels in next 1-2 days, then Nifty may be headed up for higher levels.

Sep9 Update

Nifty sold off from 5150+ with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.85% with 0.53 breadth.
2.208th day since the highs of 6338,8th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty made a flat weekly closing, up just 0.4% weekly basis.This is likely just a pause and Nifty may resume its leg up sometime next week.I expect there may be some more weakness in Nifty(upto ~4950) before Nifty turns around.

Sep8 Update

Nifty was sideways with upward bias with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.5 breadth.
2.207th day since the highs of 6338,7th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is pushing up with slowing pace.I expect around 100 point correction on closing basis now.But if Nifty does not correct here then Nifty may go to about 5500 before correcting/pausing.

Sep7 Update

Nifty moved further up with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 3.0 breadth.
2.206th day since the highs of 6338,6th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5100 levels.Today's breadth indicate that Nifty has more upside left.5200 -5300 zone will act as resistance and Nifty can break thru this zone only with a thrust.There could be a mild correction/pause around 5200 levels.

Sep6 Update

Nifty gapped down but recovered later to close in green with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.95% with 1.6 breadth.
2.205th day since the highs of 6338,5th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty made a swing of 125 points intraday closing at the highs of the day.Till Nifty closes above 5113,last week's high,it remains in sideways move.Nifty is in short term Uptrend so I expect the sideways move to resolve itself on upside and confirm Nifty's medium term uptrend also.Range for this month till today is 171 points.

Sep5 Update

Nifty was sideways with -ve bias with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 1.15 breadth.
2.204th day since the highs of 6338,4th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty looks like pausing here.It may retest the bottom formed at 4720( I don't expect Nifty may go near bottom levels in this retest) OR Nifty may remain in sideways for few days before pushing higher.This month's range is 147 points till today.

Sep2 Update

Nifty moved around 5000 levels with moderately high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.6 breadth.
2.203rd day since the highs of 6338,3rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty was up for the 3rd consecutive day.The medium term bottom is in place.On longer term,Nifty to me remains in bear market since Nov'10 Top of 6338.And the bottom of this bear market will be long drawn one.If I consider the move from 6338-4720 as Wave.A then Wave.B may have started now and could last till feb-Apr timeframe.There may be other possible inferences also,but this one looks one of the likely possibilities to me.But on a shorter timeframe,I see Nifty may remain in upside for next 4-8 weeks.

Aug30 Update

Nifty rallied further with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 2.6 breadth.
2.202nd day since the highs of 6338,2nd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty's rally today makes a strong case that medium term bottom of Nifty is in Place.Monthly range for August is 831 points.Quarterly range till today is 1020 points.September is the month of high Volatility but since August has seen big range, I expect that September would be relatively muted ie 500-600 points.I expect upward bias of Nifty for the month of September.

Aug29 Update

Nifty made a big bounce today with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.65% with 5.0 breadth.
2.135th day since the lows of 5177,201st day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty had a big bounce today.If Nifty firms up further in next 2 days,then Nifty has made a medium term bottom here and is headed up.I would expect this rally to last around Diwali.Since this is the 3rd quarter of the year,I think Nifty has likely made the 2nd big move of this year and is nearly 80-90% of the range of this year.

Aug26 Update

Nifty came down below 4800 today with moderately low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.21 breadth.
2.134th day since the lows of 5177,200th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed below 4750 on weekly closing basis.Nifty has broken my viewpoint that 4800 will not be breached.I see Nifty is likely approaching capitulation point here.Confirmation of this should be there if Nifty does not gain downside momentum in next week.Monthly range till today is 831 points as against 287 points in July.

Aug25 Update

Nifty slid down further erasing all the gains from the lows with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.5 breadth.
2.133rd day since the lows of 5177,199th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty made a new closing low but not an intraday low.Downside momentum is slow now ,so any new lows tomorrow is likely to face bounce back.Nifty will show strength only above 4950-5000 levels.More time Nifty spends in 4800-5000 zone,stronger is going to be bounce after that.

Aug24 Update

Nifty gave away some of the gains of last 2 days with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.7 breadth.
2.132nd day since the lows of 5177,198th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty came down below 4900 today but the volumes were low indicating that the selling pressure has receeded. Nifty may move in sideways range from 4800-5200 for few days also.Since September is usually high range month,so I expect Nifty to pick upward momentum in next few days.

Aug23 Update

Nifty carried on with yesterdays gain with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 2.5 breadth.
2.131st day since the lows of 5177,197th day since the highs of 6338.

Today's move indicates to me that Nifty has put a short term bottom in place.I would expect that the upmove will last for few weeks time.Nifty's range for this week is 157 points till today.Nifty's first resistance point will throw more light on the possible legs of this upmove.

Aug22 Update

Nifty bounced today and closed just below 4900 levels with ow volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 2.3 breadth.
2.130th day since the lows of 5177,196th day since the highs of 6338,1st day since the swing lows of 4796.

Nifty bounced today and closed in the gap of 4900-4930.Another day of upmove is needed to confirm todays upmove as sustainable for few more days.Nifty's monthly range is 755 points till today.If Nifty goes up for next few days then I don't expect Nifty to come down to retest the lows of 4800 levels anytime soon.

Aug19 Update

Nifty broke down below 4800 levels with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.38 breadth.
2.129th day since the lows of 5177,195th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty broke important level of 4800 intraday.Since 4700-4800 is important support level, I would look for Nifty's movement in this region to judge further direction.I see Nifty should pause/bounce from here and don't see further rout below 4800/4700 levels.With today's fall ,Nifty's monthly range is now 755 points and quarterly range is 944 points.

Aug18 Update

Nifty dropped down below 5000 levels and closed below it with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.2% with 0.26 breadth.
2.128th day since the lows of 5177,194th day since the highs of 6338,6th day since the lows of 4946(new low being formed today).

Nifty broke the earlier low of 4946 after 6 days.The downside momentum has slowed down for Nifty and is approaching important support level of 4700-4800.I don't expect Nifty to go sub 4800 level ,instead it could rise from here to the resistance level of 5300-5400 levels.

Aug17 Update

Nifty was sideways today with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 0.42 breadth.
2.127th day since the lows of 5177,193rd day since the highs of 6338,5th day since the lows of 4946.

Nifty is trading weak since last few days but is not breaking below 5000 levels.This looks like capitulating move sans price action to me.Here either Nifty could move up in st line from here or it could drop just below 5000 levels before starting its ascent.

Aug12 Update

Nifty dropped down with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.67 breadth.
2.126th day since the lows of 5177,192nd day since the highs of 6338,3rd day since the lows of 4947.

Nifty after facing resistance at 5200 levels since few days dropped down after another attempt at 5200.Nifty may likely build a base around 5000 levels before it gains strength to go past 5200 levels.Nifty would face resistance at 5350 levels after 5200 and I expect Nifty to be in 5000-5350 range till August.

Aug11 Update

Nifty moved in a range of 63 points with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.78 breadth.
2.125th day since the lows of 5177,191st day since the highs of 6338,2 days since the lows of 4947.

Nifty mad a weak attempt at 5200.Nifty would need momentum to go up from here and that should come if Nifty goes down and does not go below 5000 levels.Next few days should see narrow sideways range movement of Nifty with likely range of 5050-5300.

Aug10 Update

Nifty bounced up and closed above 5150 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 4.6 breadth.
2.124th day since the lows of 5177,190th day since the highs of 6338,78th day since the swing highs of 5906,37th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty may have bottomed out yesterday at 4950 levels.Though reattempt is possible in coming days,but I think Nifty may now form a higher low and may not go sub 5000 levels in the reattempt.Nifty's likely range for this expiry should be 5000-5350/5400.

Aug9 Update

Nifty opened gap down below 5000 levels but recovered from lower levels and closed above 5050 levels.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.38 breadth.
2.123rd day since the lows of 5177,189th day since the highs of 6338,77th day since the swing highs of 5906,36th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty after opening deep in the red closed above the lows of yesterday.Nifty it seems is finding support at lower levels and is not closing at/around day's low since the last 3 days inspite of the big plunge.Today/this week Nifty should have a likely medium term bottom.I expect a rally after this to go above 5700-5750 levels in next few weeks.Nifty has likely completed Monthly range for the month of August with 604 points till today.

Aug8 Update

Nifty cracked down below 5100 levels but closed above it with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.8% with 0.23 breadth.
2.122nd day since the lows of 5177,188th day since the highs of 6338,76th day since the swing highs of 5906,35th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty closed below the important level of 5200 and previous medium term low of 5177.Nifty's downside momentum looks moderate to me indicating that further fall may be limited.Today was 10th day since the swing highs of 5702 and 5th consecutive down day.5300-5350 should act as resistance on any bounce while on downside strong support comes in around 4700-4800.

Aug5 Update

Nifty cracked down today with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.3% with 0.17 breadth.
2.121st day since the lows of 5177,187th day since the highs of 6338,75th day since the swing highs of 5906,34th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty closed just above 5200 after nearly touching 5100 levels earlier in the day.Since Nifty has decisively cracked down,it is likely to go down further.Today was 9th day since the swing highs of 5700+.I think Nifty may not go 100-200 points below 5100 from here.Monthly range till today is 435 points.

Aug4 Update

Nifty fell hard today closing below 5350 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.57 breadth.
2.120th day since the lows of 5177,186th day since the highs of 6338,74th day since the swing highs of 5906,33rd day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty is going down but lacks the big momentum to crack down to sub 5000 levels.Today was 8th day since Nifty reversed from 5700 levels.Unless Nifty drops in next 2-3 days,I think Nifty will go into upside sideways range between 5200-5600 till expiry.This month's range till today is 228 points.

Aug3 Update

Nifty was down and closed just above 5400 with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.95% with 0.63 breadth.
2.119th day since the lows of 5177,185th day since the highs of 6338,73rd day since the swing highs of 5906,32nd day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty was in a narrow range of 44 points though it was down by 52 points.This to me indicates divergence.So Nifty may pause here before moving down again.Weakness in Nifty persists and is likely to move further down either sharply or in staggered manner.

Aug2 Update

Nifty drifted down again and closed below 5500 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.3 breadth.
2.118th day since the lows of 5177,184th day since the highs of 6338,72nd day since the swing highs of 5906,31st day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty's high today was below 5500 indicating that Nifty is weak.This weakness could trigger a sharp slide down in Nifty in next few days.Nifty bouncing from here looks less likely to me.Next couple of days should set the tone for Nifty outside of the sideways range of 5450-5750.

Aug 1 Update

Nifty bounced mildly and closed above 5500 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.65% with 0.63 breadth.
2.117th day since the lows of 5177,183rd day since the highs of 6338,71st day since the swing highs of 5906,30th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty again closed above 5500 levels.Nifty still remains in sideways ranged between 5450-5750.July was compression month for Nifty being 287 points only.So I expect Nifty to expand this month probably around 500 points.For downside,I think this week and next are critical but if Nifty stays around these levels by next week,then It will likely go beyond 5700 levels after that.

Jul28 Update

Nifty moved down in a narrow range with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with0.4 breadth.
2.115th day since the lows of 5177,181st day since the highs of 6338,69th day since the swing highs of 5906,28th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty closed below 5500 levels with increased volumes.Today was 3rd consecutive down day.Nifty looks weak here.Next few days could see sharp downside moves in Nifty.4800-5000 should act as good support for Nifty.

Jul28 Update

Nifty traded down today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.78 breadth.
2.114th day since the lows of 5177,180th day since the highs of 6338,68th day since the swing highs of 5906,27th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty closed below 5550 today.Last 2 days Nifty has reversed the gains of 2 days prior to that.For a deeper fall,Nifty shud fall big on friday/monday,If not then Nifty may be Just capitulating in its sideways move before it moves up.Nifty's monthly range till today is 244 points compared to 450 in previous 2 months.This is significant range compression,so next month ie August shud see range expansion in Nifty.

Jul26 Update

Nifty reversed two day's gain today and closed below 5600 levels with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.9% with 0.4 breadth.
2.113th day since the lows of 5177,179th day since the highs of 6338,67th day since the swing highs of 5906,26th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty dropped sharply today.Last 3 days Nifty has moved sharply(up/down) but within the range.Nifty is preparing itself for a move in either direction.A move past the upper/lower band shall tell where Nifty intends to go.To me short term Nifty is in sideways while medium term trend remains down.

Jul25 Update

Nifty confirmed its upmove by moving closer to 5700 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.85% with 1.4 breadth.
2.112th day since the lows of 5177,178th day since the highs of 6338,66th day since the swing highs of 5906,25th day since the swing lows of 5195.

Nifty closed above 5650 today.Nifty is in short term upmove now.If Nifty shows strength above 5700 in next 2-3 days, then Nifty may have more upside above 5750-5800 levels but if Nifty falters around 5750 level then Nifty may reverse towards 5200 levels in next 1-2 weeks.

Jul22 Update

Nifty bounced strongly above 5600 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.8 breadth.
2.111th day since the lows of 5177,177th day since the highs of 6338,65th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5600 level with good volumes.Nifty is in sideways move since many days.Nifty may have topped out at 5728 OR Nifty may make another attempt for 5750+ in another move.Next week Nifty should see some decisive movement as this week turned out to be compressive week with 110 points only.On upside I expect a Fake breakout above 5750 and on downside Nifty could drag down before catching momentum.

Jul21 Update

Nifty was sideways again in narrow range with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.55 breadth.
2.110th day since the lows of 5177,176th day since the highs of 6338,64th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5550 today.Nifty is moving in about 150 point range of 5500-5650 since many days.So possible range breakout targets are 5350/5800.My inclination is still towards upside as a capitulating move.

Jul 20 Update

Nifty dropped below 5600 after attempting 5650 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.IMportant points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.5 breadth.
2.109th day since the lows of 5177,175t day since the highs of 6338,63rd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5600 level after closing above it yesterday.Sideways choppy movement of Nifty continues.I expect to see impulsive move in July expiry(likely to be upmove).Nifty is entering important time zone of next 4-5 weeks.I expect to see increased volatility from now till August Expiry.

Jul19 Update

Nifty bounced up today and closed above 5600 levels with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.6 breadth.
2.108th day since the lows of 5177,174th day since the highs of 6338,62nd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5600 with somewhat increased volumes than previous two days, indicating short term Nifty may have started its climb up.Follow up move is required now.This move I expect to be the capitulating move and could go all the way upto ~5800 levels.

Jul18 Update

Nifty was rangebound in narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.15 breadth.
2.107th day since the lows of 5177,173rd day since the highs of 6338,61st day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed marginally in the red with very low volumes.Nifty's volumes are drying up on declines in this sideways movement of few days.This indicates that Nifty should start with an upmove soon.My expectation is that this next upmove is likely to be capitulating move of the upside move that started from 5195.

Jul14 Update

Nifty crossed 5650 levels with moderate volumes but could not sustain till close.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.4 breadth.
2.105th day since the lows of 5177,171st day since the highs of 6338,59th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed just below 5600 levels.Nifty may undergo one more downleg to complete the fall from 5740-5496.But if Nifty closed above 5650 level in 1-2 days then Nifty is likely headed to 5750+ levels early next week.

Jul13 Update

Nifty bounced back today though with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 2.6 breadth.
2.105th day since the lows of 5177,171st day since the highs of 6338,58th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty bounced and closed above 5550 levels.I expect Nifty here to make highs above 5750 in this upmove in next few days.If Nifty does not go much above 5750(ie stays within 5850 zone) then this may also be capitulation move before Nifty moves down again.

Jul12 Update

Nifty had a big down day with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.35 breadth.
2.104th day since the lows of 5177,170th day since the highs of 6338,57th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5600 levels today.After gap down opening, Nifty remained weak all through the day and closed towards the lower end of range.I see Nifty staying weak for another day or so before bouncing up towards 5700 levels towards weekend.Today was 16th day since the swing low of 5195.

Jul11 Update

Nifty continued its slide down but the volumes wer low and breadth neutral. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.67 breadth.
2.103rd day since the lows of 5177,169th day since the highs of 6338,56th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty's pullback is about 2.2% down.Today's volumes were low indicating that downside here should be limited.Tomorrow's closing will be important as I expect Nifty to reverse/bottom out and move up.Alternately Nifty could remain in narrow range for 1-2 days also before shooting up.

Jul8 Update

Nifty pulled back after closing above 5700 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.47 breadth.
2.102nd day since the low of 5177,168th day since the highs of 6338,55th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty pulled back with down close of 1.2% .This was the second pullback in this 14 day rally since 5195.5500-5550 should provide support to Nifty on downside.I expect Nifty to move above 5750 in coming days.Since Nifty has managed to go Just about 35 point above first +ve swing high of 5705,I expect that Nifty would likely top out in 5750-5850 zone If it goes past 5750 in next 1-2 weeks.

Jul7 Update

Nifty surged above 5700 today with good volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 2.3 breadth.
2.101st day since the lows of 5177,167th day since the highs of 6338,54th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty moved up after its narrow range movement of 3 days.Nifty has done a close above 5700.Strength of Nifty above 5700 has to be seen in next few days to see How many legs of upside may be there.Only if Nifty shows strength with volumes above 5700,I expect Nifty to open its next leg up towards 5950-6000 levels.

Jul7 Update

Nifty continued with its narrow range movement with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.100th day since the lows of 5177,166th day since the highs of 6338, 53rd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty moved in 45 point range today.This week's range is 96 points till today and there should be range expansion of 50-100 points in next 2 days.Upside looks stalled here as Nifty has not attempted 5700 again in 3 days since it crossed 5700.Failure at 5700 again would be a strong signal of Nifty moving down.

Jul5 Update

Nifty traded in narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.0 breadth.
2.98th day since the lows of 5177,165th day since the highs of 6338,52nd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty has got into narrow range movement after friday's pullback.Nifty has not yet attempted a go at 5700 again.I expect Nifty to reattempt 5700 again and the strength around those levels will decide whether Nifty would remain in this upmove for more or 5700 would prove to be a turning point.

Jul4 Update

Nifty was rangebound today with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 2.0 breadth.
2.98th day since the lows of 5177,164th day since the highs of 6338,51st day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty moved in a narrow range of 46 points today.Today was 10th day since the swing lows of 5195.Short term trend is up but I see this upmove as sideways move within a medium term downtrend.Nifty made an impulsive move of 9 days from 5906 -5443.Since then I see Nifty's move as sideways with -ve bias.So I expect Nifty to make an impulsive downswing before it enters into medium term up.

Jul1 Update

Nifty jumped above 5700 at open but slide back and closed in the red with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.5 breadth.
2.97th day since the lows of 5177,163rd day since the highs of 6338,50th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5600 for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty pulled back back from 5700+ levels indicating some resistance at the level.Since last weeks saw a sharp upmove of 5% on weekly basis,so Nifty can go into sideways move with narrow range for next 1/2 weeks before it moves higher.Short term trend is up,medium term trend is down.

Jun30 Update

Nifty continued with its upmove and crossed 5650 levels with high volumes(expiry) and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.2 breadth.
2.96th day since the lows of 5177,162nd day since the highs of 6338,49th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty was up for the 8th consecutive day and 2nd day above 5600.Nifty is likely to do 2nd consecutive +ve weekly closing tomorrow.Upside look limited from here,So Nifty may either attempt to reverse from here or it may enter into narrow range movement with upward bias for next few weeks.

Jun29 update

Nifty moved above 5600 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.85 breadth.
2.95th day since the lows of 5177,161st day since the highs of 6338,48th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed just above 5600 levels for the first time after falling below it.Today was 7th day of upmove.Next two days of the week would be interesting to see How Nifty closed on monthly/weekly basis.Any further upmove and close above 5650 will give renewed momentum to the upmove but failure could lead to sudden downfall.

Jun28 Update

Nifty moved in a narrow range with moderate volumes. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.2 breadth.
2.94th day since the lows of 5177,160th day since the highs of 6338,47th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty was up for the 6th consecutive day.This is very fast retracement of the fall from daily high of 5592(13 days to 5257).This makes me doubt the character of this upmove being a bounce before a impulsive move.Next 1.5 weeks are going to be critical as Nifty is likely to take a swing either way in coming days.

Jun27 Update

Nifty continued with its upsurge and closed above 5500 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.4 breadth.
2.93rd day since the lows of 5177,159th day since the highs of 6338,46th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty was up for the 5th consecutive day.Nifty has done faster retracement of the 4 day fall from 5500+ to 5195.Medium term trend of Nifty remains down.So I expect this upmove to be followed by new lows.

Jun24 Update

Nifty had a big upmove with moderately high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.9% with 3.7 breadth.
2.92nd day since the lows of 5177,158th day since the highs of 6338,45th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5450 on weekly closing.Nifty dropped by about 375 points from 5570 and has bounced back about 300 points in 4 days.If Nifty starts retracing again next week then Nifty would likely break 5177 levels by about 3-5%.But if Nifty remains above 5400 all of next week,then Nifty may have entered into a short term upmove for next few days/weeks.

Jun23 Update

Nifty bounced up moderately and closed above 5300 levels with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.75 breadth.
2.91st day since the lows of 5177,157th day since the highs of 6338,44th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5300 today and expanded its day range to 78 points after getting compressed to 48 points yesterday.Upside from here is limited, so Nifty could fall down from here now.Medium term bottom for Nifty should be near both in terms of days as well as Price.

Jun22 Update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 0.47 breadth.
2.90th day since the lows of 5177,156th day since the highs of 6338,43rd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty's range has compressed to less than 50 today amid very low volumes.Nifty is likely just taking a breather here before starting to move down.So any close below 5250 should be restart of downside impulsive move.Today's range compression is quite high being 48 points only,so Nifty could try to reverse tomorrow .

Jun21 Update

Nifty was quite today after yesterday's big move with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.35% with 0.65 breadth.
2.89th day since the lows of 5177,155th day since the highs of 6338,42nd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty moved in 65 point range.Nifty may move in 5200-5350 range for some days here OR it may drop down to around 5000 levels by the end of this week.Nifty is not gaining momentum after sharp drop , this to me indicates that downside is limited and Nifty may try to capitulate here by dropping sharply but moderately in price action.

Jun20 Update

Nifty cracked down today with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.14 breadth.
2.88th day since the lows of 5177,154th day since the highs of 6338,41st day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5300 today with increased volumes and wide range.Nifty has started its impulsive downmove.Today's range was quite high of 182 points.Today was 4th consecutive down day.I would expect Nifty to drift down to lows/near lows within next few days before it goes into sideways move again.The coming days of this week are likely to see increased volatility.

Jun17 Update

Nifty continued its slow descent with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for the day.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.35 breadth.
2.87th day since the lows of 5177,153rd day since the highs of 6338,40th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5400 for the 2nd day.Nifty can crack down from here if this is an impulsive move or still Nifty may keep sliding down and then pick up momentum in an impulsive manner.Beacuse of the time taken till now since the swing highs of 5906, I don't expect a Major cut in Nifty ie not below 4700-4800.My expectations are for Nifty to drop down below 5000 levels and create capitulation.

Jun16 Update

Nifty slid below 5400 levels today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.45 breadth.
2.86th day since the lows of 5177, 152nd day since the highs of 6338,39th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5400 levels.The slide from 5500+ to below 5400 level has been moderate.In terms of time ,market is well positioned for an impulsive move.If that is the case I expect Nifty to break down by next week.The monthly range till today is 215 points.

Jun15 Update

Nifty slid down and closed below 5450 with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with .52 breadth.
2.85th day since the lows of 5177,151st day since the highs of 6338,38th day since the
swing highs of 5906.

Nifty came down today but would need another day to confirm downmove.Nifty's move in this week has been 84 points till today and 168 points on monthly range.If impulsive downmove begins,I expect a big slide to around 5000-5100 in st line.

Jun14 Update

Nifty was again in narrow sideways move of only 36 point with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.35% with 1.2 breadth.
2.84th day since the lows of 5177,150th day since the highs of 6338,37th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty continues with its sideways action within narrow range.I expect Nifty should breakout above 5600 (marginally) to setup for a impulsive move in the down direction.That would be a capitulation of the sideways action since first week of may.Monthly range till now is 168 points,so coming days should see Nifty expanding its monthly range also.

Jun13 Update

Nifty moved down today but recovered later on to close just below 5500 with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% with1.0 breadth.
2.83rd day since the lows of 5177,149th day since the highs of 6338,36th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty traded in the red but closed towards upper end of trading range.Volumes are very low in the sideways movement of Nifty since last few days.Since last week was big compression week with range of 113 points, so can expect start of impulsive move this week.

Jun10 Update

Nifty slid below 5500 amid narrow range sideways fashion with low volumes. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.55 breadth.
2.82nd day since the lows of 5177,148th day since the highs of 6338,35th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5500 and is down by 0.5% on weekly basis.I expect a move of about 500 points in next 2-3 weeks timeframe.Let us see which way Nifty is going to break the range! Since 6000 looks less likely, so I am more inclined towards a downside.

Jun9 Update

Nifty stays in a tight range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.8 breadth.
2.81st day since the lows of 5177,147th day since the highs of 6338,34th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty's range for this week till today is 91 points.I expect some range expansion to happen tomorrow.If Nifty closes out tomorrow with range of ~100 points,I would expect that next week will likely see a volatile move by Nifty.So Nifty is approaching its range break soon.Also monthly range for June is 125 points till today which also is likely to expand in next 3 weeks.

Jun8 Update

Nifty continued with its narrow range sideways move with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.8 breadth.
2.80th day since the lows of 5177,146th day since the highs of 6338,33rd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty moved in a range of 42 points today.The sideways movement of Nifty continues and was 24th day today after 9days of down move.16 days to go in June expiry/monthly,so range breakout is expected in the month of June,as continuing this sideways move for another 16 days will stretch things a lot.

Jun7 Update

Nifty continued with its sideways movement with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up 0.45% with 1.4 breadth.
2.79th day since the lows of 5177,145th day since the highs of 6338,32nd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5550 today but the sideways narrow range movement continues.Timewise Nifty is at critical juncture.My view remains on bearish side ie I expect an impulsive downmove after the sideways correction is over.

Jun6 Update

Nifty dipped below 5500 but closed above it with very low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 0.8 breadth.
2.78th day since the lows of 5177,139th day since the highs of 6338,31st day since the siwng highs of 5906.

Nifty stays in sideways range within range of 5328-5605.Break of this range could result in a momentum move.Since the previous impulsive move was down , so I expect that the next impulse would be down , since the sideways movement doesnot exhibit that Nifty is bottoming out around 5300 zone.

Jun3 Update

Nifty moved in about 50 point range and closed below 5550 with low volumes and -ve breadth.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% .
2.77th day since the lows of 5177,143rd day since the highs of 6338,30th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty ended the week with a gain of 0.8%.This was first +ve weekly closing after 5 consecutive -ve closings.Nifty could likely now see its Leg2 of downturn.My targets for Nifty remain 4800-5000 levels in next few weeks.

Jun2 Update

Nifty dipped in the morning but recovered later with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.5 breadth.
2.76th day since the lows of 5177,142nd day since the highs of 6338,29th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty managed to close just above 5550 after dropping at the open.Nifty reversed all of yesterday's move.if Nifty does not close above 5592 in next 2 days then Nifty may have ended its move that started from 5328.Timewise, Nifty's move may well be over.

Jun1 Update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range of 38 points with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.8 breadth.
2.75th day since the lows of 5177,141st day since the highs of 6338,28th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty has a very narrow range today and this indicates that Nifty is near a inflection point.Nifty has been in sideways movement after 9 days of impulsive downmove.So next move shud likely be a downside move lasting 5-9 days of impulse.

May31 Update

Nifty moved up above 5550 with high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 2.5 breadth.
2.74th day since the lows of 5177,140th day since the highs of 6338,27th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5550 and today was the 4th day of the upmove that started from 5328.Nifty's breadth was good today indicating that Nifty has more scope to move upwards.This week is Likely to be up week but may just be a bounce in a multi week decline of Nifty.

May30 Update

Nifty moved in a narrow range and closed flat with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 1.6 breadth.
2.73rd day since the lows of 5177,139th day since the highs of 6338,26th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty was flat today and moved in a very narrow range of 51 points.There could be few more days of narrow range movement before Nifty breaks probably on the downside.Close below 5400 will open the downside risk.
Monthly range for May is 451 points,and for this Quarter is 616 points till now.So another 300-400 point range expansion for this Quarter can be expected to happen in the month of June.That could lead to sub 5000 levels on the Nifty.

May27 Update

Nifty continued with its upmove and closed above 5450 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 2.1 breadth.
2.72nd day since the lows of 5177,138th day since the highs of 6338, 25th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty's upmove confirmed yesterday's move that Nifty remains in sideways since touching an impulsive down target of 5443 in 1st week of May.This sideways move has taken 16 days till now after 9 days of impulsive down.I expect that 2nd impulsive down should be closer to starting

May26 Update

Nifty bounced up on expiry day with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.2 breadth.
2.71st day since the lows of 5177,137th day since the highs of 6338,24th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5400 erasing 2 days of losses.Today's move indicates that Nifty remains in sideways trend since the last impulsive downmove of 9 days till 5443.Another impulsive downmove should happen before Nifty makes a medium term bottom.This is the 5th week of downside of Nifty.

May25 Update

Nifty drifted down moderately today with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.6 breadth.
2.70th day since the lows of 5177,136th day since the highs of 6338.
3.23rd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5350 today.Nifty has closed below the previous week low on all 3 days of this week.A bigger cut is likely in the next 2 days.I expect Nifty to drop below 5200 by friday.But the pace of the fall till now lacks the momentum,so any momentum fall now ,will likely be a capitulating fall.

May24 Update

Nifty moved sideways after yesterdays fall with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by .15% with 0.9 breadth.
2.69th day since the lows of 5177,135th day since the highs of 6338,22nd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5400 for the 2nd consecutive day.After making a big move yesterday, Nifty paused today.Nifty remains in downtrend and would likely begin its descent soon.On the downside I see breach of 5000 as the 1st target and 4700-4800 as strong support zone.

May20 Update

Nifty bounced above 5500 today with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.4 breadth.
2.67th day since the lows of 5177,133rd day since the highs of 6338.
3.20th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5450 after staying below it for 3 days.Unless Nifty moves above 5650 and closes above it in next 1-3 days ,this is Just a dead cat bounce to be followed by a fall towards the earlier lows of 5177 or below.This was 4th consecutive down week of Nifty.Nifty remains in medium term downtrend.

May19 Update

Nifty was sideways in very narrow range of 41 points with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 0.55 breadth.
2.66th day since the lows of 5177, 132nd day since the highs of 6338.
3.19th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty was in very narrow range ie a compression day.So I can expect expansion to happen now(probably on the downside).Nifty's monthly range has been 374 points as of now.Any momentum move now could take Nifty to/around final bottom.

May18 Update

Nifty was sideways with -ve bias with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.45 breadth.
2.65th day since the lows of 5177, 131st day since the highs of 6338.
3.18th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed in the red for the 3rd consecutive day.Nifty has closed below the lows of previous day for 2 days in a row now.Nifty is showing weakness and may cut down sharply from here to around/sub 5000 levels in coming days.I dont expect though Nifty to go below support of 4700-4800 levels.

May17 Update

Nifty slid further down but with lower volumes and -ve breadth to close below 5450. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.42 breadth.
2.64th day since the lows of 5177, 130th day since the highs of 6338.
3.17th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below the low of 9 day downmove,ie 5443. Since Nifty was is sideways since last 6-7 days , this may point to start of new impulsive downwave.For confirmation of this downmove, Nifty should move down and pick up momentum.But if Nifty bounces from here , then Nifty's sideways movement continues.
Timewise, Nifty is close to important Fibonacci number, so I would expect Nifty to make a sustainable bottom here in coming days.

May16 Update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range and closed just below 5500 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.44 breadth.
2.63rd day since the lows of 5177, 129th day since the highs of 6338.
3.16th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty moved in 54 point range and closed towards the lower end of the range.Volumes were very low and breadth was weak.Today was 7th day of the sideways move between 5443-5605 after 9 days of fall.I see another downfall after this sideways move is over.Sideways move ,I think should not last more than 9-10 days.Only A daily and weekly close above 5650/5700 would negate the downside scenario and confirm a bull trend.

May13 Update

Nifty bounced strongly and went above 5600 but gave up some gains later to close below 5550 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.62nd day since the lows of 5177,128th day since the highs of 6338.
3.15th day since the swing high of 5906.

Nifty is in sideways mode for 6 days now after falling to 5440 levels in a steep decline of 9 days.I expect Nifty to retest 5200-5400 region in coming days.Only After that ,I expect Nifty could begin a sustainable uptrend.The downtrend that started from November 1st week, is already 6 months/27 weeks old.From time perspective also,Nifty should be bottoming out on medium term basis soon.

May12 Update

Nifty went down today with low volumes and -ve breadth to close below 5500. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.41 breadth.
2.61st day since the lows of 5177, 127th day since the highs of 6338.
3.14th day since the swing high of 5906.

Nifty after remaining in 100 point range for 3 days closed below the range.If there is follow up down move tomorrow, then Nifty would likely be targetting 5200 or lower levels.But if Nifty again moves up ,I would expect Nifty to attempt 5700 levels then.

May11 Update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range of 49 points with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.60th day since the lows of 5177,126th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed in the green today but volumes were very low and breadth modest.Since today was 4th day of sideways move and big compression day after a 9 day fall,I expect the main trend to start now ,ie downtrend in 1-2 days.Since 5400-5200 are established support zones,so only a momentum move(unexpected event ) can trigger a bigger fall of sub 5200 levels.Any gradual move is likely to be resisted in the strong support zone of 5200-5400.

May10 Update

Nifty was in sideways movement with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.9 breadth.
2.59th day since the lows of 5177,125th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed down today after moving in 5500-5600 range.Nifty has moved 90 points in 2 days of this week.So the remaining days in the week should likely see either 5700 or 5400 levels.Medium term trend remains down and Nifty should likely drift towards 5200 or lower in coming days.

May9 Update

Nifty moved sideways with flat closing with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 0.7 breadth.
2.58th day since the lows of 5177,124th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed flat today.Today being the 11th day since the swing high of 5900+.Nifty may attempt to take support at 5300-5200 in next few days, failing which there could be sub 5000 levels also.

May6 Update

Nifty bounced back sharply to close above 5550 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.65 breadth.
2.57th day since the lows of 5177,123rd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced back after 9 consecutive down days.Though volumes were moderate but breadth was not impressive,indicating that the bounce could be short lived.PCR is below 1.0 so market is in weak state and there is a chance of bigger falls in coming days.4700-4800 should be strong support zone incase Nifty breaches 5200 with momentum.

May5 Update

Nifty cracked down below 5500 and closed below it with lower volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.3 breadth.
2.56th day since the lows of 5177,122nd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed down below 5500.Today was the 9th consecutive down day of Nifty.In the last 2 days,Nifty's momentum has slowed down,so I expect that Nifty could pause/bounce from here.Any pause/bounce from here is likely to be temporary and down trend should resume after that.But if Nifty pauses for few days (ie no bounce)and starts going down again, then there could be a big crack.
For Nifty to break important support level of 5200, there has to be a trigger point in next few days else I don't see 5200 breaking down(if at all it happens) by any meaningful margin.

May4 Update

Nifty moved closer to 5500 at open but moved above that all day with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.52 breadth.
2.55th day since the lows of 5177,121st day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed below 5550,today being the 8th consecutive down day of Nifty.5200-5400 is the support zone of Nifty.But if Nifty pauses here at around 5500 and goes down with momentum into the support zone,then there could be sub 5200 levels to be seen soon.

May3 Update

Nifty cracked below 5600 today with high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.4% with 0.2 breadth.
2.54th day since the lows of 5177, 120th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed below important support of 5600 today.Downside momentum is good and Nifty is likely to go to next support of 5350-5400 OR 5200.Today was 7th consecutive down day.So Nifty should likely bottom out in this fall in next 2-3 days.Nifty is now in medium term downtrend ie the main trend, so the momentum is expected to be good in this fall being in the direction of main trend.

May2 Update

Nifty again dropped below 5700 but closed just above it with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.46 breadth.
2.53rd day since the lows of 5177,119th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty is at the lower end of it range at 5700.Today was 6th consecutive down day.I expect a drop to around 5600 before a bounce could happen incase of bull scenario.But if Nifty does not bounce in the next few days to close above 5800, then this could be the medium term reversal headed much lower.

Apr29 Update

Nifty opened flat and drifted down thereafter to close below 5750 with higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.65% with 0.4 breadth.
2.52nd day since the lows of 5177,118th day since the highs of 6338.


Nifty continues to be in the range of 5700-5950.Today was 5th consecutive down day of Nifty.For the bull scenario,Nifty may bounce from here to make a new high above 5950 (I expect only marginal new high)and then reverse OR Nifty may have already reversed and may cut down to 5400-5600 levels by next week itself.Today's monthly closing was -ve and that to me confirms that the Medium term trend remains down and Nifty has or will soon reverse to make new lows.

Apr28 Update

Nifty traded down today and closed below 5800 with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.5 breadth.
2.51st day since the lows of 5177, 117th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty continued with its correction/consolidation/range movement.Any further weakness will point to deeper downsides and reversal of Nifty.But on the bullish side,Nifty may have completed the consolidation around 5750 points , then impulsive upmove of 200-300 points may also happen in next week.

Apr27 Update

Nifty moved in a range of 70 points with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.7 breadth.
2.50th day since the lows of 5177,116th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty continues to be in a small trading range of 5700-5950 .This week's closing is also monthly closing so that will be important.If Nifty closes above 5900/5950 this friday, that could well be the tipping point for a reversal next week.Today was 13th day of consolidation of Nifty since the highs of 5944.

Apr26 Update

Nifty dropped down below 5800 but recovered later on to close flat with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.7 breadth.
2.49th day since the lows of 5177,115th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty continues to confound everybody with its consolidation phase.For an upmove to happen from here ,Nifty could drop down below 5800(closing basis) before making a move above 5950.OR this could be the start of the downslide all bears are waiting for!.Wellmore signals are needed to confirm that.So Nifty continues with its range bound trade

Apr25 Update

Nifty was sideways today in narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.nifty down by 0.15% with 0.8 breadth.
2.48th day since the lows of 5177,114th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed marginally in red after 3 consecutive +ve closing.Today's move was narrow range of 49 points,low volumes and neutral breadth.So Whether Nifty is still in consolidation or is trying to reverse from resistance will clear up in next few days.My bull/bear scenarios remain the same as mentioned in previous post.

Apr21 Update

Nifty moved up above 5900 but closed below it with higher volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.8 breadth.
2.47th day since the lows of 5177,113th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was positive but in a very narrow range of 48 points.Breadth too was -ve. Today was 3rd consecutive day of upmove indicating that the current move since 5693 is likely an impulsive move(though it may be impulse in a corrective wave also).Close beyond 5950 should confirm the move as impulsive move.I expect a medium term reversal when the impulsive move ends.On the downside 5600-5650 will be deciding zone and if Nifty breaks down from there , that would likely confirm a medium term reversal.

Apr20 Update

Nifty gapped up and continued to rise to close above 5850 levels with higher volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.0% with 2.7 breadth.
2.46th day since the lows of 5177,112th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced today and closed above 5850.The upmove has materialized and is likely to cross 5950-6000 band.Since medium term trend is down till Nifty takes out 6181 levels , so any reversal between 6000-6181 will be bearish and can result in sharp fall/selloff in coming days.Also May is the month of high volatility.

Apr19 Update

Nifty opened down but moved in a 70 point range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.9 breadth.
2.45th day since the lows of 5177,111th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty is halting/taking support at 5700 levels.If Nifty bounces from here then it could attempt/cross earlier highs of 5944 in next few days.If that happens ,I would see it as capitulating move on the upside.

Apr18 Update

Nifty continued with its slide and closed below 5750 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.7% with 0.41 breadth.
2.44th day since the lows of 5177,110th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was down for the 2nd consecutive day and closed below the previous swing low of 5735.I think Nifty has opened itself up for further fall upto 5450-5600 levels in next few days.Short term Nifty has turned down and medium term trend is also down.
Timewise Nifty is approaching at an important Juncture in the next 2-3weeks and I expect that Nifty could make a durable medium term bottom in this downfall.

Apr15 Update

Nifty dropped down with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.3 breadth.
2.43rd day since the lows of 5177,109th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed the week with a marginally -ve close.Nifty has been moving in a range of 5735-5944 for the last 11 days.So Nifty close above/below the range extremes will give the direction to Nifty for the further move.Previuos short term trend of Nifty was up, so if this is consolidation then Nifty should move up But if Nifty has topped out in this short term upmove, then Nifty's break of 5735(closing) could well be the beginning of medium term downside reversal.April Range till now is 209 points and I see atleast 250-300 more points to this range.So either 5944+250(6200+) OR 5735-250(5500-) could be on its way in April Expiry.

Apr13 Update

Nifty opened gapped down and bounced big to close above 5900 with moderatly high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.2% with 2.75 breadth.
2.42nd day since the lows of 5177,108th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced back after breaking 5778 levels.Today was a big upmove and is likely to continue for another 2-3 days atleast.The level to which this upmove goes will give some indication about the further direction.I expect this upmove to be ~50-100 points above the previous high of 5944 and possible reversal from there.

Apr11 Update

Nifty drifted down today and closed below 5800 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.47 breadth.
2.41st day since the lows of 5177,107th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was down today for the 4th consecutive day.Downside momentum is not there in price action or breadth.So this downmove could also be followed by upmove above 5944.But for more downsides in Nifty I expect to see accelerated down momentum in Nifty as confirmation.April range till now is 167 points.

Apr8 Update

Nifty dropped down today and closed below 5850 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.33 breadth.
2.40th day since the lows of 5177,106th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was down for the 3rd consecutive day.Though Nifty has drifted only 1.2% from the closing high of 5910 but it has taken resistance from falling trendline at 5950 and fallen for 3 consecutive days.The Number of days pointer indicates that this could well be downside reversal of Nifty for new lows.Next week should clear up the Picture.Nifty can bounce up from here but I don't expect to see more than 50-100 points higher from existing highs of 5944.