Nifty moved in a big range today but retraced all of the gains of 1st session towards the end.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.3 breadth.
2.12th day since the lows of 5177,78th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved up after the budget speech but could not hold onto gains and tanked to near 5300 levels towards end.Breadth of Nifty since last 2 days has been neutral indicating Nifty is likely in sideways move and another down move could follow.Since Nifty came down by more than 150 points intraday,I expect Nifty to go down from tomorrow if Nifty's downleg is pending,else Nifty should start inching up(indicating downside move completed at 5232).
Monday, February 28, 2011
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Feb25 Update
Nifty was sideways to +ve with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.IMportant points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.8 breadth.
2.11th day since the lows of 5177,77th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved sideways within a range of 106 points and closed above 5300 levels.Since yesterdays move was a big momentum move,so if the down impulse continues then Nifty should cut down on the downside and not remain in sideways.
But If Nifty moves sideways to up for next 2 days then Nifty likely made a double bottom at 5200 and is headed up possibly towards 5600-5700 levels.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.8 breadth.
2.11th day since the lows of 5177,77th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved sideways within a range of 106 points and closed above 5300 levels.Since yesterdays move was a big momentum move,so if the down impulse continues then Nifty should cut down on the downside and not remain in sideways.
But If Nifty moves sideways to up for next 2 days then Nifty likely made a double bottom at 5200 and is headed up possibly towards 5600-5700 levels.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Feb24 Update
Nifty gapped down and fell strongly all through the day to close below 5300 levels with high volumes(though expiry day) and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 3.25% with 0.165 breadth.
2.10th day since the lows of 5177,76th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty had a big down day.Todays range was 181 points.So Nifty heading down towards previous low of 5177 and below are possible in 1-3 days.I don't expect 5000 levels to give away in this down momentum move though.Todays range was very big and that indicates either this was capitulation move of the last 5 days of sideways/choppy correction OR this is retest of the lows of 5177(possible break or no break).
1.Nifty down by 3.25% with 0.165 breadth.
2.10th day since the lows of 5177,76th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty had a big down day.Todays range was 181 points.So Nifty heading down towards previous low of 5177 and below are possible in 1-3 days.I don't expect 5000 levels to give away in this down momentum move though.Todays range was very big and that indicates either this was capitulation move of the last 5 days of sideways/choppy correction OR this is retest of the lows of 5177(possible break or no break).
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Feb23 Update
Nifty was sideways within a narrow range with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.58 breadth.
2.9th day since the lows of 5177,75th day since highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a narrow range of 68 points.Nifty remains in sideways move within 5400-5600 after the upmove from 5177-5600.I expect Nifty to go up when this sideways move is completed.Today was 4th day of choppy action.The upmove to 5600 was of 5 days, so the sideways action likely should be max 10-12 days.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.58 breadth.
2.9th day since the lows of 5177,75th day since highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a narrow range of 68 points.Nifty remains in sideways move within 5400-5600 after the upmove from 5177-5600.I expect Nifty to go up when this sideways move is completed.Today was 4th day of choppy action.The upmove to 5600 was of 5 days, so the sideways action likely should be max 10-12 days.
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Feb22 Update
Nifty retraced most of yesterdays gain with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.52 breadth.
2.8th day since the lows of 5177,74th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty retraced yesterdays gain and closed well below 5500.If Nifty does not break below 5400 levels in 1-2 days ,I would expect this range bound movement to resolve itself on breakout above 5600 levels.Budget day would be critical for any breakout to happen though Nifty could also take an Opposite move before going in the direction of the upmove.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.52 breadth.
2.8th day since the lows of 5177,74th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty retraced yesterdays gain and closed well below 5500.If Nifty does not break below 5400 levels in 1-2 days ,I would expect this range bound movement to resolve itself on breakout above 5600 levels.Budget day would be critical for any breakout to happen though Nifty could also take an Opposite move before going in the direction of the upmove.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Feb21 Update
Nifty went down to near 5400 levels but bounced back to close above 5500 levels with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.9 breadth.
2.34th day since 6181,73rd day since 6338,7th day since 5177.
Nifty closed above 5500 after bouncing from 5400 levels.Fridays fall got support at 5400 levels though stocks cracked down in the morning around 5400 levels.So Nifty likely to remain in the range of 5400-5600 with sideways/choppy move till around budget.Budget should likely give some direction to Nifty from this range ie either break down to 5100 OR break above next resistance of 5650-5700.
Medium term trend of Nifty remains down.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.9 breadth.
2.34th day since 6181,73rd day since 6338,7th day since 5177.
Nifty closed above 5500 after bouncing from 5400 levels.Fridays fall got support at 5400 levels though stocks cracked down in the morning around 5400 levels.So Nifty likely to remain in the range of 5400-5600 with sideways/choppy move till around budget.Budget should likely give some direction to Nifty from this range ie either break down to 5100 OR break above next resistance of 5650-5700.
Medium term trend of Nifty remains down.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Feb18 Update
Nifty gapped up to near 5600 levels but sold off after that and closed well below 5500 levels with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.26 breadth.
2.33rd day since 6181,72nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty sold off from the resistance at 5550-5600 levels.The lower supports are at 5300/5200.Since Nifty has retraced yesterdays rise completely,so the selloff may have more legs and could possibly take the lower supports.The rise from 5177 was of 5 days so if the fall is impulsive in nature than Nifty should break 5177 in less than 5 days.I expect only a marginal break of 5177(max upto ~5000) if Nifty makes a new low.
1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.26 breadth.
2.33rd day since 6181,72nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty sold off from the resistance at 5550-5600 levels.The lower supports are at 5300/5200.Since Nifty has retraced yesterdays rise completely,so the selloff may have more legs and could possibly take the lower supports.The rise from 5177 was of 5 days so if the fall is impulsive in nature than Nifty should break 5177 in less than 5 days.I expect only a marginal break of 5177(max upto ~5000) if Nifty makes a new low.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Feb17 Update
Nifty moved up after a pause of 2 days with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.7 breadth.
2.5th days since the lows of 5177,32nd day since 6181,71st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5500 levels ,5 days after the lows of 5177, thus retracing the complete fall from 5556-5177(5 days) in same/lesser time.
As earlier expected by me,Nifty's reversal to 5200 may not happen till around budget as Nifty is not yet showing signs of topping for this short term upmove. Nifty is now bumping into the resistance of 5550-5600 and there could be milder correction to 5450-5500 now before Nifty attempts to cross this resistance zone.
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.7 breadth.
2.5th days since the lows of 5177,32nd day since 6181,71st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5500 levels ,5 days after the lows of 5177, thus retracing the complete fall from 5556-5177(5 days) in same/lesser time.
As earlier expected by me,Nifty's reversal to 5200 may not happen till around budget as Nifty is not yet showing signs of topping for this short term upmove. Nifty is now bumping into the resistance of 5550-5600 and there could be milder correction to 5450-5500 now before Nifty attempts to cross this resistance zone.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Feb16 Update
Nifty was sideways in a very narrow range with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today
1.Nifty flat with 1.6 breadth.
2.31st day since 6181,70th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty ended flat with a range of only 44 points.Todays range was extreme compression and I expect Nifty to turn volatile from tomorrow onwards.Nifty may not have capitulated for this 4 day move till now but 5550-5600 is the next resistance zone and any selloff from there could be reversal.
1.Nifty flat with 1.6 breadth.
2.31st day since 6181,70th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty ended flat with a range of only 44 points.Todays range was extreme compression and I expect Nifty to turn volatile from tomorrow onwards.Nifty may not have capitulated for this 4 day move till now but 5550-5600 is the next resistance zone and any selloff from there could be reversal.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Feb15 Update
Nifty continued with the up move and went above 5500 but closed below it with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.1 breadth.
2.30th day since 6181,69th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty went above 5500 Intraday.Nifty likely would be targetting next resistance at 5550+ now.Nifty is hovering near an inflection point and there could be a reversal from here in 1-2 days also.Since the downturn from 6181-5177 was of 27 days, so I expect that reversal from here is likely and Nifty would likely build base around 5100 levels inorder to begin a sustainable rally from thereon.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.1 breadth.
2.30th day since 6181,69th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty went above 5500 Intraday.Nifty likely would be targetting next resistance at 5550+ now.Nifty is hovering near an inflection point and there could be a reversal from here in 1-2 days also.Since the downturn from 6181-5177 was of 27 days, so I expect that reversal from here is likely and Nifty would likely build base around 5100 levels inorder to begin a sustainable rally from thereon.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Feb14 Update
Nifty surged strongly to close above 5450 levels with moderate volumes and very +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 2.75% with 9.0 breadth.
2.29th day since 6181,68th day since highs of 6338.
Nifty was up for 2nd consecutive day with very strong +ve breadth.Todays breadth indicates to me that Nifty is likely to turn down again and make new lows as part of Intermediate bottom formation.But incase this is a sharp rally then Nifty may just take a pause and will move ahead.Nifty is likely to take some pause here for next few days before deciding on the next course of action.
1.Nifty up by 2.75% with 9.0 breadth.
2.29th day since 6181,68th day since highs of 6338.
Nifty was up for 2nd consecutive day with very strong +ve breadth.Todays breadth indicates to me that Nifty is likely to turn down again and make new lows as part of Intermediate bottom formation.But incase this is a sharp rally then Nifty may just take a pause and will move ahead.Nifty is likely to take some pause here for next few days before deciding on the next course of action.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Feb11 Update
Nifty slid below 5200 levels but bounced back to close above 5300 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 4.4 breadth.
2.28th day since 6181,67th day since the lows of 6338.
Nifty bounced from below 5200 levels to close above 5300 levels.Nifty has likely formed a short term bottom just below 5200 levels.After today's breadth,Nifty is likely to rally further for atleast 2-3 days.Next resistances for Nifty should be at 5400-5450=>5550-5600=>5650-5750 levels.Reversal from above resistances should take Nifty back to around 5100-5200 levels.If Nifty reverses from 1st resistance around 5400 levels next week,then Nifty may likely break today's low of 5177.The medium term trend remains down for Nifty and I expect that after the corrective rally gets over ,Nifty will resume its downtrend.So any longs should be bought for short term trading only.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 4.4 breadth.
2.28th day since 6181,67th day since the lows of 6338.
Nifty bounced from below 5200 levels to close above 5300 levels.Nifty has likely formed a short term bottom just below 5200 levels.After today's breadth,Nifty is likely to rally further for atleast 2-3 days.Next resistances for Nifty should be at 5400-5450=>5550-5600=>5650-5750 levels.Reversal from above resistances should take Nifty back to around 5100-5200 levels.If Nifty reverses from 1st resistance around 5400 levels next week,then Nifty may likely break today's low of 5177.The medium term trend remains down for Nifty and I expect that after the corrective rally gets over ,Nifty will resume its downtrend.So any longs should be bought for short term trading only.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Feb10 Update
Nifty moved in a narrow range and ended down with moderate volumes and slightly -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.65 breadth.
2.27th day since 6181,66th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5200 after dipping below 5200 briefly.Today's range was 75 points and breadth was marginally -ve.In the last 5 days Nifty is going down but with decreasing price action indicating divergence.Also 5150-5200 is a major support level.I expect to see ~5100 levels on Nifty either before Nifty bounce or after the bounce.End Of February to middle of march is seasonally weak period of Nifty ,so any bounce from here could last around end feb.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.65 breadth.
2.27th day since 6181,66th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5200 after dipping below 5200 briefly.Today's range was 75 points and breadth was marginally -ve.In the last 5 days Nifty is going down but with decreasing price action indicating divergence.Also 5150-5200 is a major support level.I expect to see ~5100 levels on Nifty either before Nifty bounce or after the bounce.End Of February to middle of march is seasonally weak period of Nifty ,so any bounce from here could last around end feb.
Feb9 Update
Nifty dropped below 5250 with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.16 breadth.
2.26th day since 6181,65th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty continued its slide and closed just above 5250.Nifty is going down but the price momentum is waning with the fall.Nifty is nearing important support levels of 5150-5200 levels.Nifty should likely capitulate in next few days.If a bounce happens from 5200 ,Nifty could again go down to 5100 levels after the bounce.But If Nifty drops down to 5100 levels now, then I expect an Intermediate bottom formation that could last for few weeks.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.16 breadth.
2.26th day since 6181,65th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty continued its slide and closed just above 5250.Nifty is going down but the price momentum is waning with the fall.Nifty is nearing important support levels of 5150-5200 levels.Nifty should likely capitulate in next few days.If a bounce happens from 5200 ,Nifty could again go down to 5100 levels after the bounce.But If Nifty drops down to 5100 levels now, then I expect an Intermediate bottom formation that could last for few weeks.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Feb8 Update
Nifty opened above 5400 but slipped thereafter to 5300 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.17 breadth.
2.25th day since 6181,64th day since highs of 6338.
Nifty closed just above 5300.The downside move since friday is not a sideways move but a down impulsive move.This move may be capitulating move also which we may know in next few days.I would expect Nifty to keep sliding down if this is the capitulating move of the Nifty.
1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.17 breadth.
2.25th day since 6181,64th day since highs of 6338.
Nifty closed just above 5300.The downside move since friday is not a sideways move but a down impulsive move.This move may be capitulating move also which we may know in next few days.I would expect Nifty to keep sliding down if this is the capitulating move of the Nifty.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Feb7 Update
Nifty moved in a narrow range of 65 points with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 0.55 breadth.
2.24th day since 6181,63rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty hovered around 5400 levels and closed at the same level.Breadth was marginally -ve but the volumes were quite low.Today's move indicate that the fall of Friday is not likely a capitulating move and an impulsive move on downside is likely in next few days.This move from Friday then is likely a sideways move of Nifty and could take another 2-3 days in the range of 5350-5500.Nifty's close above 5450 is likely to be a inflection point where if Nifty powers up above 5500/5550, then Nifty is turning up OR it may reverse from there on the downside.
1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 0.55 breadth.
2.24th day since 6181,63rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty hovered around 5400 levels and closed at the same level.Breadth was marginally -ve but the volumes were quite low.Today's move indicate that the fall of Friday is not likely a capitulating move and an impulsive move on downside is likely in next few days.This move from Friday then is likely a sideways move of Nifty and could take another 2-3 days in the range of 5350-5500.Nifty's close above 5450 is likely to be a inflection point where if Nifty powers up above 5500/5550, then Nifty is turning up OR it may reverse from there on the downside.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Feb4 Update
Nifty resisted at 5550 levels and sold off below 5400 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 2.4% with 0.33 breadth.
2.23rd day since 6181,62nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed down below 5400 levels, thus breaking the previous medium term weekly Low of 5408(August27,2010).I was expecting this move to be capitulating move but that may or may not be true.I expect Either Nifty will not go further below 5300 and consolidate/bounce upto 5600 levels now OR Nifty may slide down to 5100-5200 levels next week also inorder to capitulate and then turn up.
1.Nifty down by 2.4% with 0.33 breadth.
2.23rd day since 6181,62nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed down below 5400 levels, thus breaking the previous medium term weekly Low of 5408(August27,2010).I was expecting this move to be capitulating move but that may or may not be true.I expect Either Nifty will not go further below 5300 and consolidate/bounce upto 5600 levels now OR Nifty may slide down to 5100-5200 levels next week also inorder to capitulate and then turn up.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Feb3 Update
Nifty moved up after taking support at 5400 for 2-3 days and closed above 5500 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 2.3 breadth.
2.22nd day since 6181,61st since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved up strongly and closed above 5500 levels but below the 2 days high of 5539.Nifty is in 137 point range(5402-5539) till now in this week.Tomorrow will be very important day as Nifty could reverse to downside from 5550-5600 range Or if Nifty manages to counter the resistance and closes above 5550-5600 then Nifty likely has bottomed out on intermediate term at 5400 levels.
1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 2.3 breadth.
2.22nd day since 6181,61st since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved up strongly and closed above 5500 levels but below the 2 days high of 5539.Nifty is in 137 point range(5402-5539) till now in this week.Tomorrow will be very important day as Nifty could reverse to downside from 5550-5600 range Or if Nifty manages to counter the resistance and closes above 5550-5600 then Nifty likely has bottomed out on intermediate term at 5400 levels.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Feb2 Update
Nifty opened gap up but moved in a 75 point range all day with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.0 breadth.
2.21st day since 6181,60th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty gave up its gain of first half towards close but closed in the green.Nifty is due for a bounce now and I expect a bounce till about 5550-5600 atleast.Close above 5600 will indicate Nifty may have bottomed out at 5400.But If Nifty reverses from 5550-5600 then Nifty would likely go down to 5100-5200 levels.For the downside I expect the move to come in next 2-4 days.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.0 breadth.
2.21st day since 6181,60th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty gave up its gain of first half towards close but closed in the green.Nifty is due for a bounce now and I expect a bounce till about 5550-5600 atleast.Close above 5600 will indicate Nifty may have bottomed out at 5400.But If Nifty reverses from 5550-5600 then Nifty would likely go down to 5100-5200 levels.For the downside I expect the move to come in next 2-4 days.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Feb1 Update
Nifty opened in the green but drifted down all day to close just above 5400 with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.35 breadth.
2.20th day since 6181,59th day since highs of 6338.
3.5th consecutive down day of Nifty.
Nifty tested 5400 levels again and closed just above it.The downside momentum has slowed down.Nifty may bottom around 5400 in 1-2 days or it may go sideways and then slide down towards 5200 levels.Since today was 20th day of the downmove from 6181,and the downside momentum doesn't look very strong,timewise I dont expect more than 3-5 days for this move and pricewise 5100-5200 should be maximum probable target.
1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.35 breadth.
2.20th day since 6181,59th day since highs of 6338.
3.5th consecutive down day of Nifty.
Nifty tested 5400 levels again and closed just above it.The downside momentum has slowed down.Nifty may bottom around 5400 in 1-2 days or it may go sideways and then slide down towards 5200 levels.Since today was 20th day of the downmove from 6181,and the downside momentum doesn't look very strong,timewise I dont expect more than 3-5 days for this move and pricewise 5100-5200 should be maximum probable target.
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