Nifty closed above 5800 today with high volumes(being expiry day) but neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.9% with 1.0 breadth.
2.34th day since the lows of 5177,100th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty has closed above 5800 and today was the 8th consecutive up day.This rally is the longest daily upmove without a single pause/correction in 8 days since the bull market from Mar09.I see this upmove as part of sideways/corrective movement from 5177,so i assume this move should likely be capitulating move before an impulsive downmove begins.Since this upmove is turning out to be really stretched,so if down impulse starts after this,it too should be very fast.Nifty price action is not giving any signal of exhaustion of this rally but breadth is indicating of approaching exhaustion.The previous rally from 4786 lasted for 117 days,so for medium term correction(going since Nov'10) I expect that the final downleg should be over within next 20-25 days(ie 120-125 days).
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Mar30 Update
Nifty moved past 5800 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.9% with 3.4 breadth.
2.33rd day since the lows of 5177,99th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty is continuing with its upmove for the 7th consecutive day.Breadth today increased significantly compared to the last 6 days indicating increasing bullish sentiment.Nifty may continue with its upmove but I expect on end of this move, Nifty to approach lower support zone of 5200-5400.Also my reading is that Nifty is in sideways corrective zone since 5177, to be followed by an impulsive move on the downside.
1.Nifty up by 0.9% with 3.4 breadth.
2.33rd day since the lows of 5177,99th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty is continuing with its upmove for the 7th consecutive day.Breadth today increased significantly compared to the last 6 days indicating increasing bullish sentiment.Nifty may continue with its upmove but I expect on end of this move, Nifty to approach lower support zone of 5200-5400.Also my reading is that Nifty is in sideways corrective zone since 5177, to be followed by an impulsive move on the downside.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Mar29 Update
Nifty pushed past 5750 but closed below it with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.6 breadth.
2.32nd day since the lows of 5177, 98th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closing above 5700 is near an inflection point.Short term correction is due and it will throw light on the bull/bear path Nifty is likely to follow ahead in coming weeks.5550-5600 is the previous top/resistance,so drop till there should happen on short term correction.But if Nifty starts its impulsive downmove here then short term correction will be part of medium term correction.
Nifty closing above 5700, points to a medium term capitulation,so any reversal from here will be critical.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.6 breadth.
2.32nd day since the lows of 5177, 98th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closing above 5700 is near an inflection point.Short term correction is due and it will throw light on the bull/bear path Nifty is likely to follow ahead in coming weeks.5550-5600 is the previous top/resistance,so drop till there should happen on short term correction.But if Nifty starts its impulsive downmove here then short term correction will be part of medium term correction.
Nifty closing above 5700, points to a medium term capitulation,so any reversal from here will be critical.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Mar28 Update
Nifty moved past 5700 today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.9 breadth.
2.31st day since the lows of 5177,97th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty crossed 5700 levels after many weeks but closed below it.The short term upmove since 5348 may be nearing its end since Nifty is in strong resistance zone of 5650-5750.Today's range was 66 points.Since Nifty is 5 days into this upmove ,I don't expect Nifty can cross the resistance zone in this attempt.Short term correction is due for Nifty.But if the medium term correction since 5177 is complete then Nifty may begin its impulsive downleg also, inwhich case 5200 levels will be taken out on the first downfall.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.9 breadth.
2.31st day since the lows of 5177,97th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty crossed 5700 levels after many weeks but closed below it.The short term upmove since 5348 may be nearing its end since Nifty is in strong resistance zone of 5650-5750.Today's range was 66 points.Since Nifty is 5 days into this upmove ,I don't expect Nifty can cross the resistance zone in this attempt.Short term correction is due for Nifty.But if the medium term correction since 5177 is complete then Nifty may begin its impulsive downleg also, inwhich case 5200 levels will be taken out on the first downfall.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Mar25 Update
Nifty surged above 5600 today with moderately high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 2.4% with 1.9 breadth.
2.30th day since the lows of 5177,96th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5600 today.Volumes were good and breadth improved from previous 3 days.Today was 4th consecutive up day.Nifty is heading into resistance zone of 5650-5750 and is likely to correct from here upto about 5500-5550 levels.Short term Nifty stays in uptrend and Medium term trend is down.This upmove is 5th leg of the corrective pattern started from lows of 5177.So there could be a reversal in Nifty in coming days!
1.Nifty up by 2.4% with 1.9 breadth.
2.30th day since the lows of 5177,96th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5600 today.Volumes were good and breadth improved from previous 3 days.Today was 4th consecutive up day.Nifty is heading into resistance zone of 5650-5750 and is likely to correct from here upto about 5500-5550 levels.Short term Nifty stays in uptrend and Medium term trend is down.This upmove is 5th leg of the corrective pattern started from lows of 5177.So there could be a reversal in Nifty in coming days!
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Mar24 Update
Nifty closed above 5500 but moved in very narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.4 breadth.
2.29th day since the lows of 5177,95th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a range of 33 points today.The upmove from last 3 days is showing divergence in breadth.Today was gap up opening and Nifty moved in a very narrow range.Such kind of divergent behaviour(moderate price action + narrow range + +ve breadth) is indicative of reversal ahead.I would look for signs of topping of this upmove as a first sign.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.4 breadth.
2.29th day since the lows of 5177,95th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a range of 33 points today.The upmove from last 3 days is showing divergence in breadth.Today was gap up opening and Nifty moved in a very narrow range.Such kind of divergent behaviour(moderate price action + narrow range + +ve breadth) is indicative of reversal ahead.I would look for signs of topping of this upmove as a first sign.
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Mar23 Update
Nifty moved up today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.28th day since the lows of 5177,94th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved up above 5450 today.Nifty is showing divergence in price action and breadth indicating that this upmove of Nifty that started yesterday may be the last one before the impulsive downmove begins.I am not convinced about this upmove crossing 5600 but I expect range of Nifty in March is 260 points only till today(5348-5608) which is too low,and some expansion in range should be there in the next 6 days(could be either side!).
1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.28th day since the lows of 5177,94th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved up above 5450 today.Nifty is showing divergence in price action and breadth indicating that this upmove of Nifty that started yesterday may be the last one before the impulsive downmove begins.I am not convinced about this upmove crossing 5600 but I expect range of Nifty in March is 260 points only till today(5348-5608) which is too low,and some expansion in range should be there in the next 6 days(could be either side!).
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Mar22 Update
Nifty was sideways within very narrow range with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.9% with 1.65 breadth.
2.27th day since the lows of 5177,93rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5400 after 2 days.Volumes were again very low and breadth was marginally +ve.Nifty after breaching 5400 level has not followed up with more downside.To me,Either the range bound scenario still continues or Nifty will cut down to 5200 towards end of this week.
1.Nifty up by 0.9% with 1.65 breadth.
2.27th day since the lows of 5177,93rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5400 after 2 days.Volumes were again very low and breadth was marginally +ve.Nifty after breaching 5400 level has not followed up with more downside.To me,Either the range bound scenario still continues or Nifty will cut down to 5200 towards end of this week.
Monday, March 21, 2011
Mar21 Update
Nifty was sideways today in a narrow range with very low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.65 breadth.
2.26th day since the lows of 5177,92nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5400 for 2nd consecutive today.The volumes today were very low and range was only 65 points.Since the range breakout(below 5400) looks decisive, having closed below 5400 for 2 days,the move on the downside should happen now.But if there is a gap down and bounce tomorrow then Nifty may move in short term uptrend.
Medium term trend to me remains down.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.65 breadth.
2.26th day since the lows of 5177,92nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5400 for 2nd consecutive today.The volumes today were very low and range was only 65 points.Since the range breakout(below 5400) looks decisive, having closed below 5400 for 2 days,the move on the downside should happen now.But if there is a gap down and bounce tomorrow then Nifty may move in short term uptrend.
Medium term trend to me remains down.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Mar18 Update
Nifty dropped down below 5400 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.47 breadth.
2.25th day since the lows of 5177,91st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5400 levels today.Today was 2nd consecutive -ve weekly closing.Nifty has broken the range of 5400-5600 today on the downside but the downward momentum was not there today.If there is a follow up downside move on Monday then Nifty would likely move to around 5000 levels.Else If Nifty moves up from here, then today's move is capitulation move of the sideways action of 10 days and the upside will begin with possible targets of 5700-5800.
1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.47 breadth.
2.25th day since the lows of 5177,91st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5400 levels today.Today was 2nd consecutive -ve weekly closing.Nifty has broken the range of 5400-5600 today on the downside but the downward momentum was not there today.If there is a follow up downside move on Monday then Nifty would likely move to around 5000 levels.Else If Nifty moves up from here, then today's move is capitulation move of the sideways action of 10 days and the upside will begin with possible targets of 5700-5800.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Mar17 Update
Nifty was sideways at open but drifted down later with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.67 breadth.
2.24th day since the lows of 5177,90th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty traded in narrow range again and closed below 5450.Nifty is in sideways range of 5400-5600 for 9 days now.Range breakout should happen soon.On the downside if 5400 is broken,next leg of downside should begin with initial target of 5000 level.But if 5600 is taken out,momentum of Nifty in negotiating 5700 level will decide how far Nifty can move up.Medium term trend remains down for Nifty,So even on breakout above 5600 I expect to see lower levels(sub 5000) later.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.67 breadth.
2.24th day since the lows of 5177,90th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty traded in narrow range again and closed below 5450.Nifty is in sideways range of 5400-5600 for 9 days now.Range breakout should happen soon.On the downside if 5400 is broken,next leg of downside should begin with initial target of 5000 level.But if 5600 is taken out,momentum of Nifty in negotiating 5700 level will decide how far Nifty can move up.Medium term trend remains down for Nifty,So even on breakout above 5600 I expect to see lower levels(sub 5000) later.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Mar16 Update
Nifty opened gap up and traded sideways within a narrow range with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 2.1 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 5177,89th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty traded in a very narrow range after being in 90-100 point range for last two days.Tomorrow being Monetary Policy,I expect Nifty to make a big swing decisively.I am biased towards the upside,since Nifty has been in sideways mode of 5370-5600 for last 8 days.Breach of 5600 on upside will throw open two possibilities-i)Larger upside upto 6000 if Nifty shows good strength above 5600 OR ii) False breakout leading to suckers rally followed by drop down to sub 5000 levels.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 2.1 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 5177,89th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty traded in a very narrow range after being in 90-100 point range for last two days.Tomorrow being Monetary Policy,I expect Nifty to make a big swing decisively.I am biased towards the upside,since Nifty has been in sideways mode of 5370-5600 for last 8 days.Breach of 5600 on upside will throw open two possibilities-i)Larger upside upto 6000 if Nifty shows good strength above 5600 OR ii) False breakout leading to suckers rally followed by drop down to sub 5000 levels.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Mar15 Update
Nifty opened gapped down below 5400 levels but bounced from thereon to close above 5400 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.25 breadth.
2.22nd day since the lows of 5177,88th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty broke the previous swing low of 5408 but bounced from lower levels.Today was the 7th day of sideways movement after 5 days of upmove.Since Nifty has bounced from lower levels after breaching the previous low,Nifty may move up now if it closed above 5400 tomorrow also.I expect that 5600 + may be seen by friday.But this upmove may well be the last move before Nifty turns down.
1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.25 breadth.
2.22nd day since the lows of 5177,88th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty broke the previous swing low of 5408 but bounced from lower levels.Today was the 7th day of sideways movement after 5 days of upmove.Since Nifty has bounced from lower levels after breaching the previous low,Nifty may move up now if it closed above 5400 tomorrow also.I expect that 5600 + may be seen by friday.But this upmove may well be the last move before Nifty turns down.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Mar14 Update
Nifty moved up today though with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 0.9 breadth.
2.21st day since the lows of 5177,87th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5500 but breadth was marginally -ve and very low volumes.If Nifty is headed up then 5600 level should be taken out in next 1-2 days.The breadth and momentum above 5600 should give indication of sustainability above 5600.But If Nifty reverses from tomorrow then lower levels should open up provided 5400 is breached decisively on closing basis.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 0.9 breadth.
2.21st day since the lows of 5177,87th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5500 but breadth was marginally -ve and very low volumes.If Nifty is headed up then 5600 level should be taken out in next 1-2 days.The breadth and momentum above 5600 should give indication of sustainability above 5600.But If Nifty reverses from tomorrow then lower levels should open up provided 5400 is breached decisively on closing basis.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Mar11 Update
Nifty opened down and moved down with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.35 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 5177,86th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5450 today.Today was 5th day of sideways/corrective movement of Nifty after 5 days of rally(from 5232).Either Nifty may again go down to 5200 levels or Nifty may bounce up from here.5380 is 60% retracement of the 376 point rise(5232-5608),so if Nifty Nifty closed below this, then nifty may likely go down to around 5200.Else Nifty should reverse from here.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.35 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 5177,86th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed below 5450 today.Today was 5th day of sideways/corrective movement of Nifty after 5 days of rally(from 5232).Either Nifty may again go down to 5200 levels or Nifty may bounce up from here.5380 is 60% retracement of the 376 point rise(5232-5608),so if Nifty Nifty closed below this, then nifty may likely go down to around 5200.Else Nifty should reverse from here.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Mar10 Update
Nifty was sideways in very narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.67 breadth.
2.19th day since the lows of 5177,85th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in very narrow range of 48 points.I expect Nifty's range expansion to happen now from tomorrow and Nifty could breakout of this 200 points range by early next week(probably on upside).Also Nifty is approaching important Fib number of 89 from high of 6338,so the top of this rally may be there in next few days .
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.67 breadth.
2.19th day since the lows of 5177,85th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in very narrow range of 48 points.I expect Nifty's range expansion to happen now from tomorrow and Nifty could breakout of this 200 points range by early next week(probably on upside).Also Nifty is approaching important Fib number of 89 from high of 6338,so the top of this rally may be there in next few days .
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Mar9 Update
Nifty moved up above 5550 at open but moved sideways to down after that with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.18th day since the lows of 5177,84th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty remains stuck in range of 5400-5550/5600.If Nifty does not move beyond 5600 tomorrow,Nifty would likely do flat weekly closing(~5500-5540) and make an upmove next week.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.18th day since the lows of 5177,84th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty remains stuck in range of 5400-5550/5600.If Nifty does not move beyond 5600 tomorrow,Nifty would likely do flat weekly closing(~5500-5540) and make an upmove next week.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Mar8 Update
Nifty edged up today with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.9 breadth.
2.17th day since the lows of 5177,83rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5500 but with very low volumes.Nifty moved in a very narrow range of 66 points today.I expect Nifty may move between this 150-200 range for another few days before moving above 5600.But any momentum move above 5600 in 1-2 days may setup for bigger upmove for Nifty.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.9 breadth.
2.17th day since the lows of 5177,83rd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed above 5500 but with very low volumes.Nifty moved in a very narrow range of 66 points today.I expect Nifty may move between this 150-200 range for another few days before moving above 5600.But any momentum move above 5600 in 1-2 days may setup for bigger upmove for Nifty.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Mar7 Update
Nifty gapped down but recovered later with very low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.33 breadth.
2.16th day since the lows of 5177,82nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed in the red after 5 consecutive up days.Nifty has corrected 200 points from the 5608 top(~53% of the rise from 5232-5608).Todays fall is likely a mild correction and Nifty may consolidate around 5400-5600 levels before moving up.
1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.33 breadth.
2.16th day since the lows of 5177,82nd day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty closed in the red after 5 consecutive up days.Nifty has corrected 200 points from the 5608 top(~53% of the rise from 5232-5608).Todays fall is likely a mild correction and Nifty may consolidate around 5400-5600 levels before moving up.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Mar4 Update
Nifty paused today with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty flat with 0.9 breadth.
2.15th day since the lows of 5177,81st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a range of 84 points and closed flat.Short term Nifty is in uptrend.
Nifty can undergo some correction before moving up or it can move beyond 5600 before undergoing correction.From the number of days I expect Atleast 5-8 days more of this uptrend before the main downtrend resumes.
1.Nifty flat with 0.9 breadth.
2.15th day since the lows of 5177,81st day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty moved in a range of 84 points and closed flat.Short term Nifty is in uptrend.
Nifty can undergo some correction before moving up or it can move beyond 5600 before undergoing correction.From the number of days I expect Atleast 5-8 days more of this uptrend before the main downtrend resumes.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Mar3 Update
Nifty moved sideways with positive bias and closed slightly up with high volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.25% with 0.85 breadth.
2.14th day since the lows of 5177,80th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty consolidated the gains of previous day and moved in 100 point range.Nifty has formed a double bottom at 5200 and is likely headed towards the resistance of 5650-5750.Pullback in Nifty is expected from around 5700 levels by next week.Since 5700 is considerable resistance, so Nifty is unlikely to cross it decisively in the first attempt in absence of major +ve trigger.
1.Nifty up by 0.25% with 0.85 breadth.
2.14th day since the lows of 5177,80th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty consolidated the gains of previous day and moved in 100 point range.Nifty has formed a double bottom at 5200 and is likely headed towards the resistance of 5650-5750.Pullback in Nifty is expected from around 5700 levels by next week.Since 5700 is considerable resistance, so Nifty is unlikely to cross it decisively in the first attempt in absence of major +ve trigger.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Mar1 Update
Nifty made a big rebound with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 3.6% with 5.2 breadth.
2.13th day since the lows of 5177,79th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty surged and closed above 5500.Nifty has retraced the fall from 5526-5232 in 3 days time.That implies Nifty has strong support at 5200,since Nifty has done faster retracement of the fall to 5200 twice now.But the rise of today is lot steeper than a normal bull trend would have been.So if todays rise has no follow up in coming 1-2 days then Nifty can probably again go down to 5200(or may be lower to 5100 also) and then bounce thereafter.I see Nifty hovering in 5000-5700 range for the month of March.
1.Nifty up by 3.6% with 5.2 breadth.
2.13th day since the lows of 5177,79th day since the highs of 6338.
Nifty surged and closed above 5500.Nifty has retraced the fall from 5526-5232 in 3 days time.That implies Nifty has strong support at 5200,since Nifty has done faster retracement of the fall to 5200 twice now.But the rise of today is lot steeper than a normal bull trend would have been.So if todays rise has no follow up in coming 1-2 days then Nifty can probably again go down to 5200(or may be lower to 5100 also) and then bounce thereafter.I see Nifty hovering in 5000-5700 range for the month of March.
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