Apr29 Update

Nifty opened flat and drifted down thereafter to close below 5750 with higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.65% with 0.4 breadth.
2.52nd day since the lows of 5177,118th day since the highs of 6338.


Nifty continues to be in the range of 5700-5950.Today was 5th consecutive down day of Nifty.For the bull scenario,Nifty may bounce from here to make a new high above 5950 (I expect only marginal new high)and then reverse OR Nifty may have already reversed and may cut down to 5400-5600 levels by next week itself.Today's monthly closing was -ve and that to me confirms that the Medium term trend remains down and Nifty has or will soon reverse to make new lows.

Apr28 Update

Nifty traded down today and closed below 5800 with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.5 breadth.
2.51st day since the lows of 5177, 117th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty continued with its correction/consolidation/range movement.Any further weakness will point to deeper downsides and reversal of Nifty.But on the bullish side,Nifty may have completed the consolidation around 5750 points , then impulsive upmove of 200-300 points may also happen in next week.

Apr27 Update

Nifty moved in a range of 70 points with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.7 breadth.
2.50th day since the lows of 5177,116th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty continues to be in a small trading range of 5700-5950 .This week's closing is also monthly closing so that will be important.If Nifty closes above 5900/5950 this friday, that could well be the tipping point for a reversal next week.Today was 13th day of consolidation of Nifty since the highs of 5944.

Apr26 Update

Nifty dropped down below 5800 but recovered later on to close flat with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.7 breadth.
2.49th day since the lows of 5177,115th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty continues to confound everybody with its consolidation phase.For an upmove to happen from here ,Nifty could drop down below 5800(closing basis) before making a move above 5950.OR this could be the start of the downslide all bears are waiting for!.Wellmore signals are needed to confirm that.So Nifty continues with its range bound trade

Apr25 Update

Nifty was sideways today in narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.nifty down by 0.15% with 0.8 breadth.
2.48th day since the lows of 5177,114th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed marginally in red after 3 consecutive +ve closing.Today's move was narrow range of 49 points,low volumes and neutral breadth.So Whether Nifty is still in consolidation or is trying to reverse from resistance will clear up in next few days.My bull/bear scenarios remain the same as mentioned in previous post.

Apr21 Update

Nifty moved up above 5900 but closed below it with higher volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.8 breadth.
2.47th day since the lows of 5177,113th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was positive but in a very narrow range of 48 points.Breadth too was -ve. Today was 3rd consecutive day of upmove indicating that the current move since 5693 is likely an impulsive move(though it may be impulse in a corrective wave also).Close beyond 5950 should confirm the move as impulsive move.I expect a medium term reversal when the impulsive move ends.On the downside 5600-5650 will be deciding zone and if Nifty breaks down from there , that would likely confirm a medium term reversal.

Apr20 Update

Nifty gapped up and continued to rise to close above 5850 levels with higher volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.0% with 2.7 breadth.
2.46th day since the lows of 5177,112th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced today and closed above 5850.The upmove has materialized and is likely to cross 5950-6000 band.Since medium term trend is down till Nifty takes out 6181 levels , so any reversal between 6000-6181 will be bearish and can result in sharp fall/selloff in coming days.Also May is the month of high volatility.

Apr19 Update

Nifty opened down but moved in a 70 point range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.9 breadth.
2.45th day since the lows of 5177,111th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty is halting/taking support at 5700 levels.If Nifty bounces from here then it could attempt/cross earlier highs of 5944 in next few days.If that happens ,I would see it as capitulating move on the upside.

Apr18 Update

Nifty continued with its slide and closed below 5750 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.7% with 0.41 breadth.
2.44th day since the lows of 5177,110th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was down for the 2nd consecutive day and closed below the previous swing low of 5735.I think Nifty has opened itself up for further fall upto 5450-5600 levels in next few days.Short term Nifty has turned down and medium term trend is also down.
Timewise Nifty is approaching at an important Juncture in the next 2-3weeks and I expect that Nifty could make a durable medium term bottom in this downfall.

Apr15 Update

Nifty dropped down with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.3 breadth.
2.43rd day since the lows of 5177,109th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed the week with a marginally -ve close.Nifty has been moving in a range of 5735-5944 for the last 11 days.So Nifty close above/below the range extremes will give the direction to Nifty for the further move.Previuos short term trend of Nifty was up, so if this is consolidation then Nifty should move up But if Nifty has topped out in this short term upmove, then Nifty's break of 5735(closing) could well be the beginning of medium term downside reversal.April Range till now is 209 points and I see atleast 250-300 more points to this range.So either 5944+250(6200+) OR 5735-250(5500-) could be on its way in April Expiry.

Apr13 Update

Nifty opened gapped down and bounced big to close above 5900 with moderatly high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.2% with 2.75 breadth.
2.42nd day since the lows of 5177,108th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced back after breaking 5778 levels.Today was a big upmove and is likely to continue for another 2-3 days atleast.The level to which this upmove goes will give some indication about the further direction.I expect this upmove to be ~50-100 points above the previous high of 5944 and possible reversal from there.

Apr11 Update

Nifty drifted down today and closed below 5800 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.47 breadth.
2.41st day since the lows of 5177,107th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was down today for the 4th consecutive day.Downside momentum is not there in price action or breadth.So this downmove could also be followed by upmove above 5944.But for more downsides in Nifty I expect to see accelerated down momentum in Nifty as confirmation.April range till now is 167 points.

Apr8 Update

Nifty dropped down today and closed below 5850 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.33 breadth.
2.40th day since the lows of 5177,106th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was down for the 3rd consecutive day.Though Nifty has drifted only 1.2% from the closing high of 5910 but it has taken resistance from falling trendline at 5950 and fallen for 3 consecutive days.The Number of days pointer indicates that this could well be downside reversal of Nifty for new lows.Next week should clear up the Picture.Nifty can bounce up from here but I don't expect to see more than 50-100 points higher from existing highs of 5944.

Apr7 Update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.9 breadth.
2.39th day since the lows of 5177,105th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed in the red after moving in a 40 point range.Today was the 2nd consecutive -ve closing.If Nifty closes below 5833 level,then Nifty's short term reversal will be confirmed.On the bullish side my view says that Nifty may have 1 more upside upto about 6000 yet to come.On bearish side,Nifty may have reversed from 5950 level and it may slide upto 5400/5600 level first.

Apr6 Update

Nifty opened above 5900 but moved sideways later with high volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.4 breadth.
2.38th day since the lows of 5177,104th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed down marginally for the first day after 11 days.Nifty seems to be topping out, very short term ,around 5900-5950.There could be a pullback upto 5750 level before Nifty makes its next move.
But if Nifty does not undergo any daily correction and maintains its upmove,I would expect that Nifty will reverse for downside leg after topping out.

Apr5 Update

nifty moved in 75 points range with higher volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 2.1 breadth.
2.37th day since the lows of 5177,103rd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 5900 for 2nd consecutive day.Nifty's 11 day rally is showing signs of exhaustion but Nifty could do a retrace/bounce before falling down.There are no definite signs of reversal(only signs of rally slowing down),so short term trend remains UP.Medium term trend remains down,unless Nifty takes out 6181 levels.
My view remains the same that this is bear rally after falling to 5177 and new lows will follow after this rally gets over.

Apr4 Update

Nifty surged above 5900 today with moderate volumes and very +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 6.0 breadth.
2.36th day since the lows of 5177,102nd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 5900 today.Breadth was highly +ve but price action was only moderately +ve, indicating bullish sentiment and divergence in price action.This only points Nifty is approaching a high level Top.
My weather pointer tells me that Nifty may make a major cut anytime from now to end of May(within next 8 weeks).4800 is the minimum I expect to see if and When Nifty cuts down.

Apr1 Update

Nifty moved sideways in a narrow range with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 3.9 breadth.
2.35th day since the lows of 5177,101st day since the highs of 6338.
3.2nd consecutive up weekly closing.

Nifty moved in a range of 50 points and closed above 5800 on weekly closing.Today was the first -ve close after 8 days of upmove.Next 2-3 days of move should give clues about the road ahead for the month of April.If this turns out to be a suckers rally then Nifty could go down in an equally severe fashion.My observation is that Nifty will reverse somewhere from here and will make a final low in next 4-6 weeks.