May30 Update

Nifty moved in a narrow range and closed flat with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 1.6 breadth.
2.73rd day since the lows of 5177,139th day since the highs of 6338,26th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty was flat today and moved in a very narrow range of 51 points.There could be few more days of narrow range movement before Nifty breaks probably on the downside.Close below 5400 will open the downside risk.
Monthly range for May is 451 points,and for this Quarter is 616 points till now.So another 300-400 point range expansion for this Quarter can be expected to happen in the month of June.That could lead to sub 5000 levels on the Nifty.

May27 Update

Nifty continued with its upmove and closed above 5450 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 2.1 breadth.
2.72nd day since the lows of 5177,138th day since the highs of 6338, 25th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty's upmove confirmed yesterday's move that Nifty remains in sideways since touching an impulsive down target of 5443 in 1st week of May.This sideways move has taken 16 days till now after 9 days of impulsive down.I expect that 2nd impulsive down should be closer to starting

May26 Update

Nifty bounced up on expiry day with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.2 breadth.
2.71st day since the lows of 5177,137th day since the highs of 6338,24th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5400 erasing 2 days of losses.Today's move indicates that Nifty remains in sideways trend since the last impulsive downmove of 9 days till 5443.Another impulsive downmove should happen before Nifty makes a medium term bottom.This is the 5th week of downside of Nifty.

May25 Update

Nifty drifted down moderately today with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.6 breadth.
2.70th day since the lows of 5177,136th day since the highs of 6338.
3.23rd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5350 today.Nifty has closed below the previous week low on all 3 days of this week.A bigger cut is likely in the next 2 days.I expect Nifty to drop below 5200 by friday.But the pace of the fall till now lacks the momentum,so any momentum fall now ,will likely be a capitulating fall.

May24 Update

Nifty moved sideways after yesterdays fall with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by .15% with 0.9 breadth.
2.69th day since the lows of 5177,135th day since the highs of 6338,22nd day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below 5400 for the 2nd consecutive day.After making a big move yesterday, Nifty paused today.Nifty remains in downtrend and would likely begin its descent soon.On the downside I see breach of 5000 as the 1st target and 4700-4800 as strong support zone.

May20 Update

Nifty bounced above 5500 today with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.4 breadth.
2.67th day since the lows of 5177,133rd day since the highs of 6338.
3.20th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed above 5450 after staying below it for 3 days.Unless Nifty moves above 5650 and closes above it in next 1-3 days ,this is Just a dead cat bounce to be followed by a fall towards the earlier lows of 5177 or below.This was 4th consecutive down week of Nifty.Nifty remains in medium term downtrend.

May19 Update

Nifty was sideways in very narrow range of 41 points with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 0.55 breadth.
2.66th day since the lows of 5177, 132nd day since the highs of 6338.
3.19th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty was in very narrow range ie a compression day.So I can expect expansion to happen now(probably on the downside).Nifty's monthly range has been 374 points as of now.Any momentum move now could take Nifty to/around final bottom.

May18 Update

Nifty was sideways with -ve bias with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.45 breadth.
2.65th day since the lows of 5177, 131st day since the highs of 6338.
3.18th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed in the red for the 3rd consecutive day.Nifty has closed below the lows of previous day for 2 days in a row now.Nifty is showing weakness and may cut down sharply from here to around/sub 5000 levels in coming days.I dont expect though Nifty to go below support of 4700-4800 levels.

May17 Update

Nifty slid further down but with lower volumes and -ve breadth to close below 5450. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.42 breadth.
2.64th day since the lows of 5177, 130th day since the highs of 6338.
3.17th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty closed below the low of 9 day downmove,ie 5443. Since Nifty was is sideways since last 6-7 days , this may point to start of new impulsive downwave.For confirmation of this downmove, Nifty should move down and pick up momentum.But if Nifty bounces from here , then Nifty's sideways movement continues.
Timewise, Nifty is close to important Fibonacci number, so I would expect Nifty to make a sustainable bottom here in coming days.

May16 Update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range and closed just below 5500 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.44 breadth.
2.63rd day since the lows of 5177, 129th day since the highs of 6338.
3.16th day since the swing highs of 5906.

Nifty moved in 54 point range and closed towards the lower end of the range.Volumes were very low and breadth was weak.Today was 7th day of the sideways move between 5443-5605 after 9 days of fall.I see another downfall after this sideways move is over.Sideways move ,I think should not last more than 9-10 days.Only A daily and weekly close above 5650/5700 would negate the downside scenario and confirm a bull trend.

May13 Update

Nifty bounced strongly and went above 5600 but gave up some gains later to close below 5550 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.62nd day since the lows of 5177,128th day since the highs of 6338.
3.15th day since the swing high of 5906.

Nifty is in sideways mode for 6 days now after falling to 5440 levels in a steep decline of 9 days.I expect Nifty to retest 5200-5400 region in coming days.Only After that ,I expect Nifty could begin a sustainable uptrend.The downtrend that started from November 1st week, is already 6 months/27 weeks old.From time perspective also,Nifty should be bottoming out on medium term basis soon.

May12 Update

Nifty went down today with low volumes and -ve breadth to close below 5500. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.41 breadth.
2.61st day since the lows of 5177, 127th day since the highs of 6338.
3.14th day since the swing high of 5906.

Nifty after remaining in 100 point range for 3 days closed below the range.If there is follow up down move tomorrow, then Nifty would likely be targetting 5200 or lower levels.But if Nifty again moves up ,I would expect Nifty to attempt 5700 levels then.

May11 Update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range of 49 points with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.60th day since the lows of 5177,126th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed in the green today but volumes were very low and breadth modest.Since today was 4th day of sideways move and big compression day after a 9 day fall,I expect the main trend to start now ,ie downtrend in 1-2 days.Since 5400-5200 are established support zones,so only a momentum move(unexpected event ) can trigger a bigger fall of sub 5200 levels.Any gradual move is likely to be resisted in the strong support zone of 5200-5400.

May10 Update

Nifty was in sideways movement with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.9 breadth.
2.59th day since the lows of 5177,125th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed down today after moving in 5500-5600 range.Nifty has moved 90 points in 2 days of this week.So the remaining days in the week should likely see either 5700 or 5400 levels.Medium term trend remains down and Nifty should likely drift towards 5200 or lower in coming days.

May9 Update

Nifty moved sideways with flat closing with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 0.7 breadth.
2.58th day since the lows of 5177,124th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed flat today.Today being the 11th day since the swing high of 5900+.Nifty may attempt to take support at 5300-5200 in next few days, failing which there could be sub 5000 levels also.

May6 Update

Nifty bounced back sharply to close above 5550 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.65 breadth.
2.57th day since the lows of 5177,123rd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced back after 9 consecutive down days.Though volumes were moderate but breadth was not impressive,indicating that the bounce could be short lived.PCR is below 1.0 so market is in weak state and there is a chance of bigger falls in coming days.4700-4800 should be strong support zone incase Nifty breaches 5200 with momentum.

May5 Update

Nifty cracked down below 5500 and closed below it with lower volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.3 breadth.
2.56th day since the lows of 5177,122nd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed down below 5500.Today was the 9th consecutive down day of Nifty.In the last 2 days,Nifty's momentum has slowed down,so I expect that Nifty could pause/bounce from here.Any pause/bounce from here is likely to be temporary and down trend should resume after that.But if Nifty pauses for few days (ie no bounce)and starts going down again, then there could be a big crack.
For Nifty to break important support level of 5200, there has to be a trigger point in next few days else I don't see 5200 breaking down(if at all it happens) by any meaningful margin.

May4 Update

Nifty moved closer to 5500 at open but moved above that all day with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.52 breadth.
2.55th day since the lows of 5177,121st day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed below 5550,today being the 8th consecutive down day of Nifty.5200-5400 is the support zone of Nifty.But if Nifty pauses here at around 5500 and goes down with momentum into the support zone,then there could be sub 5200 levels to be seen soon.

May3 Update

Nifty cracked below 5600 today with high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.4% with 0.2 breadth.
2.54th day since the lows of 5177, 120th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed below important support of 5600 today.Downside momentum is good and Nifty is likely to go to next support of 5350-5400 OR 5200.Today was 7th consecutive down day.So Nifty should likely bottom out in this fall in next 2-3 days.Nifty is now in medium term downtrend ie the main trend, so the momentum is expected to be good in this fall being in the direction of main trend.

May2 Update

Nifty again dropped below 5700 but closed just above it with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.46 breadth.
2.53rd day since the lows of 5177,119th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty is at the lower end of it range at 5700.Today was 6th consecutive down day.I expect a drop to around 5600 before a bounce could happen incase of bull scenario.But if Nifty does not bounce in the next few days to close above 5800, then this could be the medium term reversal headed much lower.