Sep30 Update

Nifty gave up yesterday's gain and closed below 4950 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.53 breadth.
2.223rd day since the highs 6338,23rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty stays within 4900-5150 range.4900 on the lower side is providing support to Nifty.I expect that if Nifty tests upper end of range of 5150-5200 , this time it will break above it since Nifty is not breaking 4800-4900 zone.Monthly range for September is 411 points after 831 points in August.So September has been a compression month after big expansion in August.October is a month of high volatility and after 50% compression in September,there is a good chance that October monthly range to be between 550-600 points.I expect +ve bias of Nifty in October.

Sep29 Update

Nifty bounced later in the day to close above 5000 levels. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.222nd day since the highs of 6338,22nd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5000 today.Nifty may dip to 4850-4900 levels tomorrow/once again before starting its ascent.If Nifty closes around 4900 tomorrow, then Nifty may stay within 4900-5150 next week.But if Nifty closes strongly tomorrow, then Nifty may have started its ascent.

Sep28 Update

Nifty opened above 5000 but moved sideways later on and closed in the red. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.44 breadth.
2.221st day since the highs of 6338,21st day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty entered into its rangebound range of 4900-5200 again.I expect Nifty's sideways move to be finally resolved into upside push.Timewise, Nifty has spent 21 days since the lows of 4720.

Sep27 Update

Nifty bounced strongly and closed above 4950 with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.8% with 3.3 breadth.
2.220th day since the highs of 6338,20th day since the lows of 4720.


Nifty has bounced from around 4750 levels without breaching earlier lows.This rally should find resistance now in 5100-5200 zone.

Sep26 Update

Nifty went down closer to 4750 but recovered later on to close above 4800 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.3 breadth.
2.219th day since the highs of 6338,19th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty tested the lows of 4720 and bounced.I would look for Nifty's behaviour for next 2-3 days.If Nifty firms up here, then it may head back to 5200 levels.Since Nifty is testing 4700 lows after 19 days,I expect it is unlikely to be broken.

Sep23 Update

Nifty continued with its downslide with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.44 breadth.
2.218th day since the highs of 6338,18th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has retraced about 75% of the rise from 4720-5170.If Nifty does not breach(likely) 4720 next week, then this slide is capitulating move of wave2 and should be followed by Wave3 on upside.The range for the month till now is 340 points.

Sep22 Update

Nifty sold off heavily and closed just above 4900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 4.1% with 0.12 breadth.
2.217th day since the highs of 6338,17th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty's sell off brings Nifty to the lower end of the range.I read today's move as part of sideways move of Nifty going on since last 8-10 days.The velocity of downmove indicates that this may well be the capitulating move of the sideways movement.BUT I may change my view if Nifty sustains this momentum and goes down in next 2-3 days.If Nifty shows +ve bias from here,Nifty may be starting its 3rd Wave UP.

Sep21 Update

Nifty was confined in a narrow range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.15% with 1.3 breadth.
2.216th day since the highs of 6338,16th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty after making strong upmove yesterday ,paused near the resistance zone of 5200.Downside of Nifty is 4950-5000 levels.Nifty is likely to make its breakout move above 5200 now.Though it may also spend another few days around 5000-5200 also.

Sep20 Update

Nifty bounced strongly with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 2.2% with 2.1 breadth.
2.215th day since the highs of 6338,15th day since the lows of lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5100 today.Today's momentum was good and if Nifty stays above 5100 for another 1-2 days then higher levels of 5400+ should be possible by month end.Nifty was moving in 270 point range in its sideways move since last few days,so range expansion of 270 should be possible.

Sep19 Update

Nifty moved in a narrow range of 49 points with -ve bias with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.9 breadth.
2.214th day since the highs of 6338,14th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed below 5050 after moving in a very narrow range.Low volumes indicate that Nifty's sideways movement should be ending now and the upside should resume anytime now.Monthly range till today is 260 points with 9 days to go.

Sep16 Update

Nifty again got resisted at 5150 levels and closed below 5100 with high volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.83 breadth.
2.213th day since the highs of 6338, 13th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty move up for 3rd consecutive week.Nifty is undergoing sideways movement between 4900-5200 zone.Short term Nifty remains in uptrend.So the next move after the sideways move should be on the upside.

Sep15 Update

Nifty made a 125 point swing today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.25% with 1.4 breadth.
2.212th day since the highs of 6338,12th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5050 today.Range of 4950-5150 continues.I expect Nifty to breakout above 5200 soon.

Sep14 Update

Nifty moved in 100 point range and closed above 5000 levels with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 1.45 breadth.
2.211th day since the highs of 6338,11th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is moving in 4900-5050 range this week.Any +ve cues should likely push Nifty beyond 5050-5150 range in next few days.Beyond 5200, I see 5500 as next resistance level for Nifty. Nifty's range is 260 points in this month till today.
I assume the bear market of Nifty started from Nov2010 highs.So I note the days since the highs of 6338.The next Fib no's are 234-378-612. So around these days ,can expect important highs/lows.

Sep13 Update

Nifty opened in the green and filled yesterday's gap but came down later to close below 4950 with low volumes and neutral breadth.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.0 breadth.
2.210th day since the highs of 6338,10th day since the lows of 5177.

Nifty gave up its early morning gains but the weakness was limited to 4900 levels.Volumes have remained subdued in last 2-3 days.This indicates to me that Nifty's retest of 4720 lows may be limited to around 4900 levels.September being a volatile month ,I see a possibility of Nifty breaking out in next few days to 5500+ levels.

Sep12 Update

Nifty came down heavily to around 4900 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.25% with 0.28 breadth.
2.209th day since the highs of 6338,9th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed below 4950, 2nd consecutive down day.Volumes were low today.If Nifty goes for a retest @4700 levels(looks less likely to me) than Nifty may well remain in 4700-5200 zone till expiry.But If Nifty recovers from around these levels in next 1-2 days, then Nifty may be headed up for higher levels.

Sep9 Update

Nifty sold off from 5150+ with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.85% with 0.53 breadth.
2.208th day since the highs of 6338,8th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty made a flat weekly closing, up just 0.4% weekly basis.This is likely just a pause and Nifty may resume its leg up sometime next week.I expect there may be some more weakness in Nifty(upto ~4950) before Nifty turns around.

Sep8 Update

Nifty was sideways with upward bias with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.5 breadth.
2.207th day since the highs of 6338,7th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is pushing up with slowing pace.I expect around 100 point correction on closing basis now.But if Nifty does not correct here then Nifty may go to about 5500 before correcting/pausing.

Sep7 Update

Nifty moved further up with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 3.0 breadth.
2.206th day since the highs of 6338,6th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5100 levels.Today's breadth indicate that Nifty has more upside left.5200 -5300 zone will act as resistance and Nifty can break thru this zone only with a thrust.There could be a mild correction/pause around 5200 levels.

Sep6 Update

Nifty gapped down but recovered later to close in green with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.95% with 1.6 breadth.
2.205th day since the highs of 6338,5th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty made a swing of 125 points intraday closing at the highs of the day.Till Nifty closes above 5113,last week's high,it remains in sideways move.Nifty is in short term Uptrend so I expect the sideways move to resolve itself on upside and confirm Nifty's medium term uptrend also.Range for this month till today is 171 points.

Sep5 Update

Nifty was sideways with -ve bias with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 1.15 breadth.
2.204th day since the highs of 6338,4th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty looks like pausing here.It may retest the bottom formed at 4720( I don't expect Nifty may go near bottom levels in this retest) OR Nifty may remain in sideways for few days before pushing higher.This month's range is 147 points till today.

Sep2 Update

Nifty moved around 5000 levels with moderately high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.6 breadth.
2.203rd day since the highs of 6338,3rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty was up for the 3rd consecutive day.The medium term bottom is in place.On longer term,Nifty to me remains in bear market since Nov'10 Top of 6338.And the bottom of this bear market will be long drawn one.If I consider the move from 6338-4720 as Wave.A then Wave.B may have started now and could last till feb-Apr timeframe.There may be other possible inferences also,but this one looks one of the likely possibilities to me.But on a shorter timeframe,I see Nifty may remain in upside for next 4-8 weeks.