Oct28 Update

Nifty gapped up and closed above 5350 levels with high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.2% with 2.0 breadth.
2.241st day sine the highs of 6338,41st day since the lows of 4720,51 weeks since the 6338 highs.

Nifty did a strong +ve close above the gap area.This was 9th week since the lows of 4747(4720).Retest of 4700 on weekly basis is still on the cards in next 4-6 weeks timeframe(~55 weeks) if Nifty stalls around 5500 or below levels.But if Nifty goes beyond 5600 levels, then I would say Nifty is undergoing ABC corrective of the 42 week fall from 6338-4720. So above 5600 levels ,I would expect Nifty to come down to ~5000 levels for B wave then.Nifty's range for this month/quarter is 671 points till now.

Oct25 Update

Nifty moved past the resistance levels of 5170 and closed above it. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 0.9 breadth.
2.239th day since the highs of 6338, 39th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has finally broken out of 5170 on upside.I would look for momentum in Nifty now above 5170 to see how long this breakout can last.Nifty has broken 450 point sideways range(4720-5170), so next logical target comes out to ~5600 levels.But this breakout can also be the last upmove and Nifty may be topping out here and could move towards 4700 level in slow motion manner in 2 months.

Oct24 Update

Nifty moved up today with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 0.75 breadth.
2.238th day since the highs of 6338, 38th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty remains stuck in around 150 point range not finding enough momentum to go beyond 5200.Given the time Nifty has taken since the lows of 4720,there shud be a capitulation upmove for Nifty to reverse in downward direction.So I expect a mild break above 5200 may happen in next few days.

Oct21 Update

Nifty slide down with very low volumes and slightly -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.6 breadth.
2.237th day since the highs of 6338, 37th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty's volume is drying up on downside.This indicates that Nifty should make atleast one more upmove above 5200.I am skeptical about upside now given the time Nifty has taken, but if Nifty goes beyond 5200 with good volumes (12k+), then Nifty could stay above 5200 for sometime.Next is Diwali week and Diwali is a turning point for our markets.

Oct20 Update

Nifty gave up the gains of yesterday with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.54 breadth.
2.236th day since the highs of 6338,36th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is hovering around 5100 levels for 7 days now.Any breakout above 5150-5200 is likely to be a fakeout now.Nifty's last downturn was of 35 days and this upmove /consolidation is on since 36 days.I expect to see Nifty reversing down by next week.

Oct19 Update

Nifty bounced back strongly with lower volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.0% with 1.85 breadth.
2.235th day since the highs of 6338,35th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has bounced after 2 days of losses.I expect 5200+ weekly closing this week.Strength of Nifty above 5200 will indicate whether this move is capitulation upmove or Nifty may move further high towards 5500.If Nifty is about to reverse in next 5-10 days then Nifty may touch 4500-4700 levels in 4-6 weeks.

Oct18 Update

Nifty moved down and stayed in a very narrow range with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.4% breadth.
2.234th day since the highs of 6338,34th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty came down amid very low volumes.If Nifty stays around 5050-5100 in next 2 days , the I expect Nifty to do weekly close above 5200.Nifty is here at critical juncture,and a close above 5200 is either the top of the upmove from 4728 or it may be continuation of the upmove.This is the 8th week since the weekly low of 4747,so Nifty is approaching a intermediate top in next 8-10 days.

hot autumn

Since middle of June,weather cooled off and there were moderate rains at regular intervals with heavy rainfall toward late August to early September.The weather after September is overall hot(ie not cool) till middle of October.This indicates turbulence till around january 2012 in the market, if the correlation is correct.

Oct17 Update

Nifty again stumbled above 5150 with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.9 breadth.
2.233rd day since the highs of 6338,33rd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is bumping into 5200 resistance zone after taking support at 4700 for 2 times. Nifty has lost some of its mojo in 7 days.I don't expect Nifty to retest lows of 4700 again, so Nifty should likely pause here between 5000-5200 for few days before breaking upwards.

Oct14 Update

Nifty moved in about 85 point range with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.15 breadth.
2.232nd day since the highs of 6338,32nd day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty closed above 5100 today.Nifty is in uptrend since last 6 days.Nifty is facing resistance in 5100-5150 zone since last 3 days.If Nifty fails to cross 5200 next week, then I expect a -ve weekly closing and breach of 5200 in diwali week or after that.But if Nifty crosses 5200 next week then it may hover around 5350-5400 for next 2 weeks before moving further high.

Oct12 Update

Nifty powered up with above average volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.4% with 2.4 breadth.
2.230th day since the highs of 6338,30th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty seems to be in impulsive upmove.In 4 days Nifty is up by about 400 points from the lows.Breadth and volumes are good and indicate that Nifty may cross 5200 before going for a pause/halt.Nifty's range for this month till now is 381 points.

Oct12 Update

Nifty got resisted at ~5050 levels and came down below 5000 levels with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.35 breadth.
2.229th day since the highs of 6338,29th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty faced resistance at 5050 after 2 days of strong rally.Nifty should attempt this level again in next 1-2 days.If Nifty decides to pause at 5000 level this week, then I see a good chance of breakout above 5200 next week.

Oct10 Update

Nifty rose further and closed near 5000 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 2.0 breadth.
2.228th day since the highs of 6338,28th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has bounced about 250 points in 2 days after getting support at 4700 for the 3rd time.I expect Nifty to face first resistance at 5150-5200.Pause/halt at 5200 should likely result in Nifty going further upto 5400 levels.

Oct7 Update

Nifty bounced big today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.0% with 2.5 breadth.
2.227th day since the highs of 6338,27th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty has bounced from around 4700 levels for 3rd time now.If the upside bias remains for another 1-2 days then Nifty may test 5200 levels by next week.On downside another test of 4700(less likely),would likely breach it by 100-200 points.I expect Nifty to be in upward bias now for next few weeks inching upto 5500 over next 4-6 weeks.Nifty's range for this week/month remains at 192 points till today.

Oct5 Update

Nifty moved in a 90 point range and closed just above 4750 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.45 breadth.
2.226th day since the highs of 6338,26th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is hovering around the lows of 4720 since 2 days.I see Nifty gaining ground from here in next few days.Since this is 3rd time Nifty is testing the levels of 4700, so a bounce from here could be strong.

Oct4 Update

Nifty fell further below 4800 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.2 breadth.
2.225th day since the highs of 6338,25th day since the lows of 4720.

Nifty is near the lows of 4720 .Weakness is there in Nifty but I don't see crash of Nifty below 4700 from here in near term.Nifty has taken 25 days to retest the lows, so the probability of durable bounce from here looks more likely to me,though now there could be minor breach of 4720 also.

Oct 3 Update

Nifty slid down below 4900 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.9% with 0.33 breadth.
2.224th day since the highs of 6338,24th day since the lows of 4720.

Though Nifty fell sharply today but the volumes were very low.This indicates to me that Nifty likely may not breach 4720 lows and should start rising again from here.Retest of 5200 looks to be coming in next few days.