Dec30 Update

Nifty moved in about 70 point range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 1.0 breadth.
2.283rd day since the highs of 6338,8th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty ended the week about 2% down.Nifty made a new weekly closing low.Nifty closing indicates signs of breakdown.Next week ,I expect Nifty to drop down big if this week's closing is real breakdown, But if Nifty just hovers around 4500-4700 levels then this is capitulation of Nifty and Nifty is likely to bounce big in coming weeks.Range for this year comes out to 1660.Previous year range was 1663.

Dec 27 Update

Nifty moved in about 80 point range with very low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.7 breadth.
2.280th day since the highs of 6338,5th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty is in 100 point range since last 4 days.This week has very low volumes , so it is likely to be narrow range week between 4700-4900, as I think Nifty is slightly bullish at this point.Only if Nifty takes strong momentum on downside , do I see risk of Nifty going down to 4300 and below in short term.

Dec26 Update

Nifty moved in 69 point range around 4750 with very low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 1.85 breadth.
2.279th day since the highs of 6338, 38th day since the swing highs of 5399,4th day since the swing lows of 4531.

Nifty moved further up and closed above 4750.Nifty started this week with +ve bias with very low holiday week volumes.I expect Nifty to trade with +ve bias all of this week.Attempt at 4900 is likely in this week.

Dec23 Update

Nifty paused today moving in a narrow range with very low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.3 breadth.
2.278th day since the highs of 6338,37th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty closed the week with gain of 1.4%. Its 3 days now since the lows of 4531.Nifty is likely to attempt higher levels of 4850-4900 next week.If Nifty has formed medium term bottom @4531(likely) , then 5100-5200 levels are likely by 1st week of January before Nifty shows some correction or Pause.Last week of december is +ve for Nifty, and I expect a +ve closing bias for next week.The ranges for this year and quarter are likely to end at 1660 for 2011 and 868 for Q4.

Dec22 Update

Nifty extended its gain with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.4 breadth.
2. 277th day since the highs of 6338, 36th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty closed above 4700 today.Nifty has bounced about 4.0% from the lowest closing.If Nifty sustains this bounce for another 2-3 days, then this is a sustainable bottom, since this was 4th attempt at 4700 and Nifty only breached that by 3-4%.Monthly and quarterly range now stand at 568 and 868 points.

Dec21 Update

Nifty bounced strongly with low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 3.3% with 1.9 breadth.
2.276th day since the highs of 6338,35th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty's strong bounce indicates that bottom is likely made @4531 levels for short term atleast.Any further extension of the bounce to 4900+ will indicate that it's a medium term bottom and Nifty in that case shud remain in Upside move/bias for next few weeks ie 8-10 weeks.

Dec20 Update

Nifty extended its losses and closed below 4600 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.39 breadth.
2.275th day since the highs of 6338, 34th day since the swing highs of 5399.


Today was 9th day since the swing highs of 5099 of Nifty.Nifty has closed below 4700 for 3rd consecutive day but the volumes are stagnant/decreasing with declines alongwith increasing breadth. This indicates to me that Nifty is likely to bounce from around here.The kind of bounce will determine about the character of bottom at 4500.December range till today is now 568 points.

Dec19 Update

Nifty tanked further below 4600 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.25 breadth.
2. 274th day since the highs of 6338, 33rd day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty breached 4600 levels today but recovered to close above it.Today was 8th day from the swing highs of 5099.Nifty has reached inflection point here, since Nifty has breached 4700 levels convincingly now but has not cracked big below it. If Nifty stays @4500 levels for lows in this week, then that could very well be the Medium term lows of Nifty.December range is 544 points,quarterly range is 844 points and yearly range is 1626 points till today.

Dec16 Update

Nifty cracked down today to close below 4700 with moderately high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 273rd day since the highs of 6338, 32nd day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty did weekly close below 4700 today.So this is either capitulation or Nifty could make a big drop from here.Next week will decide that but I expect Nifty shud be capitulating here with downside limited to ~4500+. Nifty formed a new low today, expanding ranges of all timeframes.

Dec15 Update

Nifty broke 4700 today but closed above it with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.4 breadth.
2. 272nd day since the highs of 6338, 31st day since the swing highs of 5399, 15th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty is retesting the earlier swing lows of 4639.Nifty is retesting 4700 levels for 4th time and till now is lacking momentum for a big leg down. I see the chances of sustainable medium term upmove from here if Nifty does not break 4600-4700 zone significantly in next 1 week or so.December range till today is 426 points.

Dec14 Update

Nifty traded in 100 point band with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.5 breadth.
2. 271st day since the highs of 6338, 30th day since the swing highs of 5399, 14th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty is hovering around the support zone of 4800.Next 2 days are going to be important for Nifty.Any high volume momentum breach of 4700, though unlikely in this expiry but if it happens then could see much lower levels.If Nifty remains in this 4600-4900 zone in december, then that could be medium term bottom formation of Nifty.

Dec13 Update

Nifty found some bounce from lower 4700 and closed at 4800 with low volumes and neutral breadth.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.7 breadth.
2. 270th day since the highs of 6338, 29th day since the swing highs of 5399, 13th day since the swing lows of 4639.

Nifty is revisiting 4700 level for the 4th time.Till Nifty remains and closes below 4950 , Nifty's bounce is not reliable.This week's closing is important as it shud clear intermediate term view.This month's range till now is 371 points.I don't expect this month's range to go beyond 500 levels , so any attempt at 4600 levels shud be seen cautiously.

Dec12 Update

Nifty went further down towards 4750 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 2.2% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 269th day since the highs of 6338, 28th day since the swing highs of 5339,12th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty has now retraced almost 80% of its upmove from 4639-5099 in 3 days.Nifty is testing 4700 zone for the 4th time since August.Last time 4700 was breached marginally.Nifty may further breach 4700-4600 zone marginally and hover around here for sometime for capitulation if it does not crack down big from here.December range till now is 344 points.

Dec9 Update

Nifty slid sharply below 4900 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.44 breadth.
2. 268th day since the highs of 6338,27th day since the swing highs of 5399,11th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty has retraced sharply in the last 2 days nearly 60% of the advance from 4639-5099.If the downside momentum sustains then Nifty could again retest/breach 4639 next week.Overall I expect Nifty to remain in sideways consolidation for 3 weeks in december.

Dec7 Update

Nifty extended upto 5100 levels but gave up the gains with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.5% with 0.15 breadth.
2. 266th day since the highs of 6338, 25th day since the swing highs of 5399,9th day since the lows of 4639.

Nifty is hovering around 5050 levels since last 3 days.There is likely some more steam left in this short term term rally.If Nifty crosses 5200 on weekly basis this week or next week, then the correction that follows would be buy on dips.But if Nifty stays around this zone for next few weeks , then a new low may be likely by first half of january.December range till today is 183 points.

Dec5 Update

Nifty moved in a narrow range with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.9 breadth.
2. 265th day since the highs of 6338, 24th day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty range and volumes were very low today.Today was 8th day of the bounce from 4639 lows.Next 2 days of move should throw some light whether Nifty may go down to 4700 in December or there would be 5200+ levels by end of this month.

Dec2 Update

Nifty moved further up with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.3% with 2.3 breadth.
2.264th day since the highs of 6338,23rd day since the swing highs of 5399.

Nifty has bounced strongly from sub 4700 levels in last 7 days.Nifty is in good short term momentum and is heading into resistance zone of 5100+. Next week is likely to see Nifty Pullback.A new low by next week looks less likely so I expect Nifty to make a higher low in the pullback and reattempt the highs of this upmove after pullback.New low looks more probable now in first half of January.

Dec1 Update

Nifty continued with its upside with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 0.15 breadth.
2.263rd day since the highs of 6338, 22nd day since the swing highs of 5399,6 days since the lows of 4639/4706.

Nifty gapped up but gave away the gains by closing.There was big divergence in breadth/price today indicating pofit booking at higher levels and skepticism about the upmove.Nifty's intraday reversal points that there could be range bound move between 4800-5000 for few days before Nifty moves up towards 5100-5200 levels.Today's range was 95 points.