Nifty bounced strongly to close just below 5300 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 2.3% with 3.1 breadth.
2. 344th day since the highs of 6338,70th day since the lows of 4531, 27th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty had a strong bounce.Till Nifty stays within 5100-5500 zone, the up/down moves will be corrective sideways movement.Nifty has ended this month with a range of 364 points and 1st quarter has a range of 1041 points.I see a good chance of Nifty making a final low of the bear market from Nov'2010 in the next quarter.But if Nifty surpasses 5500 levels on daily/weekly basis, then bear case will be wrong.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Mar29 Update
Nifty was sideways to -ve and traded below 5200 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.3 breadth.
2. 343rd day since the highs of 6338, 69th day since the lows of 4531,26th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty has likely taken out the support zone of 5200 as it has breached this level in last few days.This to me opens the gate to earlier lows of 4500-4700 levels as next stop.Nifty could retrace down to these levels if it has started its downside move. Since the downmove is already 6 weeks old, so chances of drop is high in next 2-3 weeks.Nifty expanded its monthly range and is now 364 points.
1. Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.3 breadth.
2. 343rd day since the highs of 6338, 69th day since the lows of 4531,26th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty has likely taken out the support zone of 5200 as it has breached this level in last few days.This to me opens the gate to earlier lows of 4500-4700 levels as next stop.Nifty could retrace down to these levels if it has started its downside move. Since the downmove is already 6 weeks old, so chances of drop is high in next 2-3 weeks.Nifty expanded its monthly range and is now 364 points.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Mar28 Update
Nifty was sideways with -ve bias with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.35 breadth.
2. 342nd day since the highs of 6338, 68th day since the lows of 4531, 25th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty is hovering around 5200 support levels for few days now and has taken support at 5150+ levels. Short term bounce to 5300-5400 is due now.But if the bounce falters in the resistance zone, then Nifty may head to new lows below 4500 in a sharp move.Only move above 5400 should make a bull case for Nifty going further up.
1. Nifty down by 1.0% with 0.35 breadth.
2. 342nd day since the highs of 6338, 68th day since the lows of 4531, 25th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty is hovering around 5200 support levels for few days now and has taken support at 5150+ levels. Short term bounce to 5300-5400 is due now.But if the bounce falters in the resistance zone, then Nifty may head to new lows below 4500 in a sharp move.Only move above 5400 should make a bull case for Nifty going further up.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Mar27 Update
Nifty bounced above 5200 today with moderately high volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.7 breadth.
2. 341st day since the highs of 6338, 67th day since the lows of 4531, 24th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty has likely taken short term support at 5150-5200 levels.Only if Nifty manages to show strength with 5400+ closing, I think is a chance of Nifty moving above 5600.Else this may just be sideways move till Nifty opens up its new down impulsive move.With today's bounce Nifty's monthly range looks to end at 328 points.
1. Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.7 breadth.
2. 341st day since the highs of 6338, 67th day since the lows of 4531, 24th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty has likely taken short term support at 5150-5200 levels.Only if Nifty manages to show strength with 5400+ closing, I think is a chance of Nifty moving above 5600.Else this may just be sideways move till Nifty opens up its new down impulsive move.With today's bounce Nifty's monthly range looks to end at 328 points.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Mar26 Update
Nifty slide down below 5200 today with lower volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 1.9% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 340th day since the highs of 6338, 66th day since the lows of 4531,23rd day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed below 5200 levels today.Volumes were low today indicating declining downside momentum.Nifty is likely to show some bounce till expiry.A decisive move in either could be expected after this month's expiry.Monthly range stands at 328 points till today.
1. Nifty down by 1.9% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 340th day since the highs of 6338, 66th day since the lows of 4531,23rd day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed below 5200 levels today.Volumes were low today indicating declining downside momentum.Nifty is likely to show some bounce till expiry.A decisive move in either could be expected after this month's expiry.Monthly range stands at 328 points till today.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Mar23 Update
Nifty had a mild bounce today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.15 breadth.
2. 339th day since the highs of 6338, 65th day since the lows of 4531, 22nd day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed up today but was down on weekly basis by about 0.75%. This was 5th consecutive weekly down closing of Nifty.Nifty is taking support @5200 zone.Next week is the last week of this month and the quarter. Quarterly range of 1041 is likely to remain same till next week.Monthly range till this week stands at 28 points.Nifty's upside to above 5600 looks less likely to me as of now.So next few weeks would be very important for a decisive move in either direction by Nifty.
1. Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.15 breadth.
2. 339th day since the highs of 6338, 65th day since the lows of 4531, 22nd day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed up today but was down on weekly basis by about 0.75%. This was 5th consecutive weekly down closing of Nifty.Nifty is taking support @5200 zone.Next week is the last week of this month and the quarter. Quarterly range of 1041 is likely to remain same till next week.Monthly range till this week stands at 28 points.Nifty's upside to above 5600 looks less likely to me as of now.So next few weeks would be very important for a decisive move in either direction by Nifty.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Mar22 Update
Nifty moved in a big range today with broad selloff amid higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 2.5% with 0.4 breadth.
2. 338th day since the highs of 6338, 64th day since the lows of 4531, 21st day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty dropped down below 5250 levels today.Tomorrow's weekly closing looks like is going to be 5th consecutive down close.That would point to broad weakness in Nifty on weekly scale.Any bounce from here looks unlikely to go past 5600+ levels.And lower levels look more likely in the weeks to come.
1. Nifty down by 2.5% with 0.4 breadth.
2. 338th day since the highs of 6338, 64th day since the lows of 4531, 21st day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty dropped down below 5250 levels today.Tomorrow's weekly closing looks like is going to be 5th consecutive down close.That would point to broad weakness in Nifty on weekly scale.Any bounce from here looks unlikely to go past 5600+ levels.And lower levels look more likely in the weeks to come.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Mar21 Update
Nifty bounced strongly with higher volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.25 breadth.
2. 337th day since the highs of 6338, 63rd day since the lows of 4531, 20th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed above 5350 today.Nifty it seems has turned up in the very short term. Nifty may attempt to regain 5500 levels again now. But if this is just a broad correction of the fall from 5629-5171, then Nifty may top out in this correction around 5500 levels.
1. Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.25 breadth.
2. 337th day since the highs of 6338, 63rd day since the lows of 4531, 20th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed above 5350 today.Nifty it seems has turned up in the very short term. Nifty may attempt to regain 5500 levels again now. But if this is just a broad correction of the fall from 5629-5171, then Nifty may top out in this correction around 5500 levels.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Mar20 Update
Nifty moved in a narrow range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.05 breadth.
2. 336th day since the highs of 6338, 62nd day since the lows of 4531,19th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed mildly in the green today.Nifty may have bottomed out short term or may do so in next 2-3 days.I expect move above 5400 after that.Nifty is staying within its monthly and quarterly range.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.05 breadth.
2. 336th day since the highs of 6338, 62nd day since the lows of 4531,19th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty closed mildly in the green today.Nifty may have bottomed out short term or may do so in next 2-3 days.I expect move above 5400 after that.Nifty is staying within its monthly and quarterly range.
Mar19 Update
Nifty slide down below 5300 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.45 breadth.
2. 335th day since the highs of 6338,61st day since the lows of 4531,18th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty remained under pressure and closed below 5300.Nifty's slide since last 3 days is seeing decreasing volume.So it's likely that Nifty may get support around previous support levels of ~5150 +- 100 points.There is likelihood of Nifty having reversed downwards medium term.Month end closing is likely to confirm the medium term trend of Nifty.Monthly and quarterly range as of today stand at 328 and 1041 points.
1. Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.45 breadth.
2. 335th day since the highs of 6338,61st day since the lows of 4531,18th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty remained under pressure and closed below 5300.Nifty's slide since last 3 days is seeing decreasing volume.So it's likely that Nifty may get support around previous support levels of ~5150 +- 100 points.There is likelihood of Nifty having reversed downwards medium term.Month end closing is likely to confirm the medium term trend of Nifty.Monthly and quarterly range as of today stand at 328 and 1041 points.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Mar16 Update
Nifty moved in a broad range today but closed in the red with high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.44 breadth.
2. 334th day since the highs of 6338, 60th day since the lows of 4531, 17th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty ended the 4th consecutive week down.Nifty has slipped about 4.7% in last 4 weeks on closing basis.The sentiment in the market inspite of 4 down weeks is quite bullish.This is a clear divergence to me and is an indicator of things to come in near future. Today's weekly closing though -ve but has closed above 5300.So -ve scenario that I expect is not totally clear as of now.Nifty should make an attempt to go high from here.Quarterly range looks sealed to me at 1041 points.This is highest in last 10 quarters.In next 1 or 2 quarters I think Nifty will make a big range move in either direction.
1. Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.44 breadth.
2. 334th day since the highs of 6338, 60th day since the lows of 4531, 17th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty ended the 4th consecutive week down.Nifty has slipped about 4.7% in last 4 weeks on closing basis.The sentiment in the market inspite of 4 down weeks is quite bullish.This is a clear divergence to me and is an indicator of things to come in near future. Today's weekly closing though -ve but has closed above 5300.So -ve scenario that I expect is not totally clear as of now.Nifty should make an attempt to go high from here.Quarterly range looks sealed to me at 1041 points.This is highest in last 10 quarters.In next 1 or 2 quarters I think Nifty will make a big range move in either direction.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Mar15 Update
Nifty slide down today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.4 breadth.
2. 333rd day since the highs of 6338, 59th day since the lows of 4531, 16th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty not able to sustain at 5400+ levels and closed below it. tomorrow is budget day and if Nifty closes down below 5300, then that would be 4th consecutive down week and would be confirmation to me that Nifty has topped out at 5629 and headed for new lows below 4500 in next 1-2 months. Only if Nifty closes above 5400 tomorrow on weekly closing, I would consider that there is bullish scenario possible in Nifty in coming 1-3 months.Monthly range remains at 328 points.
1. Nifty down by 1.6% with 0.4 breadth.
2. 333rd day since the highs of 6338, 59th day since the lows of 4531, 16th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty not able to sustain at 5400+ levels and closed below it. tomorrow is budget day and if Nifty closes down below 5300, then that would be 4th consecutive down week and would be confirmation to me that Nifty has topped out at 5629 and headed for new lows below 4500 in next 1-2 months. Only if Nifty closes above 5400 tomorrow on weekly closing, I would consider that there is bullish scenario possible in Nifty in coming 1-3 months.Monthly range remains at 328 points.
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
Mar14 Update
Nifty moved further up but gave away the gains with higher volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.83 breadth.
2.332nd day since the highs of 6338, 58th day since the lows of 4531, 15th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty moved towards 5500 today but not able to go and close above it.Next 2-3 days are critical, since Nifty is likely to move in the direction where it gains momentum. So 5600+/5200- may be seen in next 3-4 days.Monthly range till today stands at 328 points.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.83 breadth.
2.332nd day since the highs of 6338, 58th day since the lows of 4531, 15th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty moved towards 5500 today but not able to go and close above it.Next 2-3 days are critical, since Nifty is likely to move in the direction where it gains momentum. So 5600+/5200- may be seen in next 3-4 days.Monthly range till today stands at 328 points.
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Mar13 Update
Nifty closed above 5400 today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 1.3% with 1.9 breadth.
2. 331st day since the highs of 6338, 57th day since the lows of 4531, 14th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty managed to close well above 5400 today.Today was 3rd consecutive up day from lows of 5171.I see two possibilities in near term,first is that Nifty has formed a short term low and now likely make a lower high ie below 5629. Second is that Nifty may again go down below 5200 levels (not going above 5500) and then recover slowly towards 5500 levels towards month end.Monthly range till today stands at 257 points.Range indicator is pointing to 100-150 point move below 5171 or above 5450 levels in next 2 weeks.
1. Nifty up by 1.3% with 1.9 breadth.
2. 331st day since the highs of 6338, 57th day since the lows of 4531, 14th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty managed to close well above 5400 today.Today was 3rd consecutive up day from lows of 5171.I see two possibilities in near term,first is that Nifty has formed a short term low and now likely make a lower high ie below 5629. Second is that Nifty may again go down below 5200 levels (not going above 5500) and then recover slowly towards 5500 levels towards month end.Monthly range till today stands at 257 points.Range indicator is pointing to 100-150 point move below 5171 or above 5450 levels in next 2 weeks.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Mar12 Update
Nifty attempted 5400+ at open but closed below it with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2. 330th day since the highs of 6338, 56th day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty moved in a 93 point range but closed near 5350 levels.Nifty is attempting to recover here and short term bottom looks to be in. But if Nifty sells off on budget/RBI policy day, I think Nifty may not go deep down below 5171 level and just form a double bottom and rise from there on. Monthly range was extended today and stands at 250 points till today.
1. Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2. 330th day since the highs of 6338, 56th day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty moved in a 93 point range but closed near 5350 levels.Nifty is attempting to recover here and short term bottom looks to be in. But if Nifty sells off on budget/RBI policy day, I think Nifty may not go deep down below 5171 level and just form a double bottom and rise from there on. Monthly range was extended today and stands at 250 points till today.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Mar9 Update
Nifty ended the day with big +ve close with higher volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 2.2% with 2.7 breadth.
2. 329th day since the highs of 6338, 55th day since the lows of 4531.
Even after Nifty's big bounce today, it has done 3rd consecutive weekly close in the red.Nifty is likely to attempt sub 5200 levels again before it goes past 5450 levels. But if Nifty surges past 5450-5500 levels next week, then new highs above 5630 may be possible(though less likely). Nifty may remain bearish for next week also but after that Nifty should turn up till the end of month.This month's range remains at 221 points.
1. Nifty up by 2.2% with 2.7 breadth.
2. 329th day since the highs of 6338, 55th day since the lows of 4531.
Even after Nifty's big bounce today, it has done 3rd consecutive weekly close in the red.Nifty is likely to attempt sub 5200 levels again before it goes past 5450 levels. But if Nifty surges past 5450-5500 levels next week, then new highs above 5630 may be possible(though less likely). Nifty may remain bearish for next week also but after that Nifty should turn up till the end of month.This month's range remains at 221 points.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Mar7 Update
Nifty was flat with -ve bias and moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty flat with 0.55 breadth.
2. 328th day since the highs of 6338, 54th day since the lows of 4531,11th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty dipped below 5200 early in the trade but recovered later on to close flat.Nifty is hovering around support area now.Since Nifty is in clear downtrend for 11 days now, so further deep downside should be possible with fresh momentum only ans for that Nifty may need a pause now.Nifty may either enter daily or weekly pause mode here OR (less likely) Nifty may form a bottom around here and attempt new highs above 5629 levels.Monthly range stands at 221 points till today
1. Nifty flat with 0.55 breadth.
2. 328th day since the highs of 6338, 54th day since the lows of 4531,11th day since the swing highs of 5629.
Nifty dipped below 5200 early in the trade but recovered later on to close flat.Nifty is hovering around support area now.Since Nifty is in clear downtrend for 11 days now, so further deep downside should be possible with fresh momentum only ans for that Nifty may need a pause now.Nifty may either enter daily or weekly pause mode here OR (less likely) Nifty may form a bottom around here and attempt new highs above 5629 levels.Monthly range stands at 221 points till today
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Mar6 Update
Nifty dropped down after popping up initially with higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.43 breadth.
2. 327th day since the highs of 6338, 53rd day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty came down closer to 5200 levels.Support of 5200 levels is likely to be tested thorougly now over next few days.Nifty is in downturn for the 10th day since the highs of 5600.5100-5200 is good support zone of Nifty so it is likely to find support in this zone. Nifty's range in this month stands at 186 points till today.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.43 breadth.
2. 327th day since the highs of 6338, 53rd day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty came down closer to 5200 levels.Support of 5200 levels is likely to be tested thorougly now over next few days.Nifty is in downturn for the 10th day since the highs of 5600.5100-5200 is good support zone of Nifty so it is likely to find support in this zone. Nifty's range in this month stands at 186 points till today.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Mar5 Update
Nifty drifted down below 5300 levels with lower volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.43 breadth.
2. 326th day since the highs of 6338, 52nd day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty closed below 5300 today.Today was 9th day since start of the downturn from 5600+ levels.Nifty's correction does not look like has ended and gradual/sharp slide below 5200 may be capitulation of the short term correction in Nifty.After next week , chances of Nifty making a high above recent highs of 5600+ would likely reduce.
1. Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.43 breadth.
2. 326th day since the highs of 6338, 52nd day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty closed below 5300 today.Today was 9th day since start of the downturn from 5600+ levels.Nifty's correction does not look like has ended and gradual/sharp slide below 5200 may be capitulation of the short term correction in Nifty.After next week , chances of Nifty making a high above recent highs of 5600+ would likely reduce.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Mar2 Update
Nifty moved flat with moderately high volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.1 breadth.
2. 325th day since the highs of 6338, 51st day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty finished the week closing down 1.5%. This was 2nd consecutive down week, with Nifty having corrected about 4% on weekly basis in 2 weeks.If Nifty corrects further next week ,closing down on weekly basis, then this would be the first sign that Nifty has topped out at 5630 levels in late february.
1. Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.1 breadth.
2. 325th day since the highs of 6338, 51st day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty finished the week closing down 1.5%. This was 2nd consecutive down week, with Nifty having corrected about 4% on weekly basis in 2 weeks.If Nifty corrects further next week ,closing down on weekly basis, then this would be the first sign that Nifty has topped out at 5630 levels in late february.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Mar1 Update
Nifty moved in about 75 point range ending in the middle of range with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1. Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.65 breadth.
2. 324th day since the highs of 6338, 50th day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty's correction may or may not be done. If Nifty closes down around 5300 or below tomorrow on weekly close, then there is a good chance that Nifty may have formed a weekly medium term Top though daily top may cross the recent high of 5629 over next few days/week. Nifty's quarterly range stands at 1041 till today.
1. Nifty down by 0.85% with 0.65 breadth.
2. 324th day since the highs of 6338, 50th day since the lows of 4531.
Nifty's correction may or may not be done. If Nifty closes down around 5300 or below tomorrow on weekly close, then there is a good chance that Nifty may have formed a weekly medium term Top though daily top may cross the recent high of 5629 over next few days/week. Nifty's quarterly range stands at 1041 till today.
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