Jul31 Update

Nifty had a mid day sell off but recovered to close above 5200 levels with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.15 breadth.
2. 428th day since the highs of 6338, 154th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty closed in the green for the 3rd consecutive day.Nifty has risen sharply from the lows of 5032 it made on expiry day.Volumes in this rally is good though breadth is lacking.Short term Nifty remains in firm uptrend and only a close below 5100 will indicate that this sharp upmove was just a retracement of the fall from 5350 levels.July month ended with the range of 316 points.Sharp upmove indicates that Nifty is likely to enter more volatile period now.

Jul27 Update

Nifty bounced strongly with moderate volumes but -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.55 breadth.
2. 426th day since the highs of 6338, 152nd day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty tested 5150 levels today but gave up some gains to close just a tad below 5100.Today was 3rd consecutive -ve weekly closing. Nifty this week has closed below lows of last week on all days.On Daily timeframe, Nifty has capitulated and the bounce should continue for few days.On Weekly basis Nifty may/may not have capitulated and there may be more downside left. Monthly range stands at 316 points till today with 2 days to go.

Jul26 Update

Nifty broke down today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth on expiry day. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.3 breadth.
2. 425th day since the highs of 6338, 151st day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty broke below 5050 today and closed below it.Nifty has to sustain the downward momentum in next few days for it to fall further.Else Nifty may be due for short term bounce to 5300+ now.Monthly range now stands at 318 points.

Jul25 Update

Nifty was rangebound in 45 points with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.5 breadth.
2. 424th day since the highs of 6338, 150th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty has closed below 5150 for 3 consecutive days of this week.Today was 11th day since the swing highs of 5348.Nifty should see short term low in next 3-4 days.4800-5000 should find lot of support for Nifty and the momentum of this correction is mute with weak volumes.Downsides look limited from here for Nifty and further moves will clear up the way of the future path.July range till today stands at 272 points.

Jul24 Update

Nifty moved below 5150 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.2% .
2. 423rd day since the highs of 6338, 149th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty after yesterday's slide seems to have paused around 5100 levels.Only a close above 5200 would reverse the short term trend to +ve ,else Nifty may see further lows in the coming days.I expect a sharp/panic low to happen by next week.If Nifty's level around mid August is around 5000, then levels of 6000+ are possible by around Diwali.

Jul23 Update

Nifty broke 5150 levels though with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 1.75% with 0.35 breadth.
2. 422nd day since the highs of 6338, 148th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty broke last week's low on first day of the week.Nifty has closed below important support levels and if Nifty fails to cross 5150 in next 1-2 days then further downsides are possible.Monthly/Quarterly range stands now at 240 points.Nifty looks like expanding on the downside here.Since the volumes are low , so Nifty may pause here around 5100 levels before going further down.

Jul20 Update

Nifty was listless today also with low volumes and -ve bias.Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.6 breadth.
2. 421st day since the highs of 6338, 147th day since the lows of 4531, 104th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty closed in the red for the 2nd consecutive week.Range in this week was only 88 points.July is turning to be low range month.But Nifty is undergoing significant range compression since last few weeks.Retest of the earlier lows look possible, but if Nifty expands upwards and stays up for few days, then it may head towards 6000+ levels in coming weeks/months.

Jul19 Update

Nifty trade in very narrow range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.55% with 1.2 breadth.
2. 420th day since the highs of 6338, 146th day since the lows of 4531.

Nifty is again trading in its trading band between 5200-5350.Nifty may or may not have completed the upmove from 4770. Trading range on monthly/quarterly remains quite narrow being less than 200 in about 3 weeks. So look for volatility to begin in coming days in the direction of the next move.

Jul18 Update

Nifty slid further but recovered to close above 5200 levels with lower volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.0 breadth.
2. 419th day since the highs of 6338, 145th day since the lows of 4531, 102nd day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty closed +ve after 5 consecutive down days.Nifty has taken support at 5150 levels and now should try to move higher. 5350+ should open up further upsides while close below 5150 should open further downsides. Between these two levels Nifty may be preparing for its next move.Monthly range till today stands at 179 points, while weekly range is 77 points. This is 3rd week of this month/quarter and Nifty remains in a narrow range.There are 2 possibilities I see as of today. 1. If nifty stays in 300-400 point range till around August end, that would be bullish sign for september onwards.2.If Nifty expands its range to 500+ in next 2-3 weeks, then Nifty may move in the direction of range expansion for some time.

Jul17 Update

Nifty again moved around 5200 levels amid low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.45 breadth.
2. 418th day since the highs of 6338, 144th day since the lows of 4531, 101st day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty again closed below 5200 levels but the volumes were quite low. Nifty is finding support in the gap region of 5160-5190. Nifty looks more likely to move up in short term from here though it may remain in consolidation band of 5150-5350 zone.Monthly range till today stands at 167 points with 10 days to go.Till expiry Nifty may wait before making a breakout/breakdown move.

Jul16 Update

Nifty continued its slide to close below 5200 with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.55 breadth.
2. 417th day since the highs of 6338, 143rd day since the lows of 4531, 100th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty ended below 5200 but breadth and volumes are indicating downside exhaustion.Nifty may move up from here towards 5350+. But Nifty has not shown any good momentum after breaking above 5200, so even if upmove begins real strength is only going to come after a close above 5400 levels.Nifty faltering at ~5400 levels may result in swift reversal to sub 5000 levels. July's range stands at 158 points till today.

Jul13 Update

Nifty hovered  around 5200-5270 levels with low volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.15% with 0.8 breadth.
2. 416th day since the highs of 6338, 142nd day since the lows of 4531, 99th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty traded flat today with low volumes and closed mildly in the red. Today's weekly closing was down by 1.8%.Nifty has entered into a short term correction that may last for some time but in very near term, could see a bounce to 5300+. Level of ~5160 remains a crtical point and close below that only would point to a deeper correction to 4600-4800 levels.In 2 weeks of this month, Nifty's range is 132 points. This month is turning out to be a low range month.If that holds true then August could see greater range expansion

Jul12 Update

Nifty slid below 5250 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.5 breadth.
2. 415th day since the highs of 6338, 141st day since the lows of 4531, 98th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty closed below 5250 levels.With today's slide Nifty's weekly and monthly range stands at 131 points. Nifty is likely to test 5150 levels now.Nifty may break down from that level or if it finds support there then consolidation and further upmove may be possible.

Jul11 Update

Nifty shed yesterday's gain with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.55 breadth.
2. 414th day since the highs of 6338, 140th day since the lows of 4531, 97th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty traded in a range of 36 points. This week's range till today is 91points.Nifty's bias is +ve but momentum is missing.To get the momentum, there should be a volatile move in the opposite direction. So I expect Nifty to move up sharply(100+ points) if the upmove from 4770 is ending or vice versa. Monthly range too remains at 91 points after 1.5 weeks.

Jul10 Update

Nifty powered up today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth to close near 5350. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 1.3% with 1.9 breadth.
2. 413th day since the highs of 6338, 139th day since the lows of 4531, 96th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty has come out of its sideways range of 100 points today.The +ve momentum should continue in near term.Range for this month/quarter stands at 91 points till today.Today was 27 days since 4770 levels.Nifty remains in uptrend so further upmove should be possible though momentum seems lacking.

Jul9 Update

Nifty slid below 5300 with lower volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.44 breadth.
2. 412th day since the highs of 6338, 138th day since the lows of 4531, 95th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty closed below 5300 today amid narrow range. This week Nifty is likely to test the gap of 5160-5190 levels. Any drop below these levels will open further downsides below 5000 levels. Nifty's range expansion may be beginning but evidence is needed to confirm.If Nifty's 5 week upmove is complete , then Nifty's retrace may be starting here for first target of 4770.

Jul6 Update

Nifty ended above 5300 on weekly closing with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.67 breadth.
2. 411st day since the highs of 6338, 137th day since the lows of 4531, 94th day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty finished this week with a range of just 70 points, This is the lowest weekly range of Nifty in many years.First week of July has generated only 70 points.Nifty is moving very slowly after breakout above 5200, so lookout for capitulation in Nifty with a sharp 100+ point upmove in next few days.This is setting up a very volatile move in next few weeks.This week Nifty has completed 87 weeks since the highs of 6338,

Jul4 Update

Nifty was again confined in a narrow range with moderate volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.9 breadth.
2. 410th day since the highs of 6338, 136th day since the lows of 4531, 93rd day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty closed above 5300 today though range was only 44 points. Nifty has moved in 54 point range in 3 days of this week.This kind of compression generally signals that the end of  move may be nearing.It is possible that Nifty may head higher in next few days amid narrow range and then start reversal sharply.

Jul3 Update

Nifty was sideways with moderate volume and +ve bias. Important points for today.

1. Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.5 breadth.
2. 409th day since the highs of 6338, 135th day since the lows of 4531, 92nd day since the swing highs of 5629.

Nifty has moved in a narrow range of 55 points in 2 days of this week after big breakout on Friday.If Nifty moves like this for next 2-3 days then this may be a mild breakout instead of big breakout implying that Nifty's breakout above 5200 is likely a capitulating move.July has started on a slow pace with 55 points only in 2 days of trading.

Jul2 Update

Nifty Moved in 39 point range with moderately low volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1. Nifty flat with 1.9 breadth.
2. 408th day since the highs of 6338, 134th day since the lows of 4531, 91st day since the swing highs of 5629.

Today was 5th day of Nifty's upmove.The first upmove from 4770-5144 lasted for 8 days.How Nifty carries this move further will decide whether this is capitulation of the move from 4770 or Nifty may remain in uptrend for longer.Chances of expansion in this quarter are high since last quarter was only 608 points and lowest in 4-5 years.Timewise also Nifty is in 87th week since the highs of 6338(Nov'10).Revisit to lows of 4531/new lows may be possible in next weeks.