Dec31 Update

Nifty edged up towards 6150 with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.55% with 2.4 breadth.
2.24th day since the lows of 5690,38th day since the highs of 6338.


Nifty is in an upmove and moved up for 3rd consecutive day.Price,volumes,breadth in the upmove are not indicating any strength or impulsive behaviour.Nifty may be forming a Top here if there is a reversal from here and Nifty closes below 6000 levels.

Dec30 Update

Nifty edged upwards of 6100 levels with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.3 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 5690,37th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 6100 levels.Price action like yesterday was moderate and breadth and volumes were also neutral to moderate.This does not look like an impulsive thrust after few days of consolidation around 5700-6000 levels.Though Nifty can edge up towards 6150-6200 levels in next few days,I would be cautious on the longs here.

Dec29 Update

Nifty bounced up today but with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.22nd day since the lows of 5690,36th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty resolved itself on the upside after few days of consolidation around 6000 levels.But the breakout is modest in price and low on volumes and breadth indicating weak momentum.strength of todays breakout in next few days will decide whether it is an impulsive breakout or final surge to complete the correction of the 3 week fall in November.

Dec28 Update

Nifty was sideways in a very narrow range of 28 points with very low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat with 1.0 breadth.
2.21st day since the lows of 5690,35th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty moved in a very narrow range and closed below 6000 levels.6000-6050 is giving considerable resistance to Nifty,so any breakout above should see sharp move of 100-150 points.I think there is a possibility of such a move this week.I am not expecting breakdown from this consolidation around 6000 levels.

Dec27 Update

Nifty edged up at open but moved sideways later with very low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 5690,34th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was sideways in a 50 point range and closed below 6000.Since last 4 days,Nifty is moving sideways/consolidating around 6000 levels.I expect next move of Nifty will likely be up in next few days.Breach of 5850 on downside from here will indicate bearish implications to me.

Dec24 Update

Nifty opened gapped down but recovered later to close above 6000 with very low volumes and +ve breadth.

1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2.19th day since the lows of 5690,33rd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 6000 on weekly closing but with very low volumes.Short term trend is up with important resistance at 6050 and 6150-6200.Since Nifty's retracement of the fall from 6338-5690 is slower then the fall,so this short term upmove is likely corrective in nature.I expect the likely target of this upmove to be 6150-6200 but it can also make new highs above 6350 but not much higher than 6338.A drop down is expected to happen in Nifty inorder to complete the first fall from 6338-5690.

Dec23 Update

Nifty was sideways today in a narrow range with very low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.8 breadth.
2.18th day since the lows of 5690 and 32nd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty moved in a very narrow range of about 40 points today.I expect the range compression to be resolved in up/down move of Nifty shortly.Since the short term trend is up,so Nifty is likely to resolve itself on the upside.

Dec22 Update

Nifty gave up some of the gains registered in last 2 days with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 1.15 breadth.
2.17th day since the lows of 5690,31st day since the highs of 6338

Nifty is fluttering at 6000 levels.I expect nifty to clear this hurdle and target 6150 levels in next few days.But Incase Nifty slides down from here,downside should be limited to ~5800 levels.Any weakness at/above 6150 could result in a major fall in Nifty.Next 2-4 weeks could be crucial for Nifty.

Dec16 Update

Nifty drifted towards 5850 but bounced back strongly to above 5950 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.3 breadth.
2.14th day since the lows of 5690,28th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced strongly towards closing from around 5850 levels.I expect Nifty to move to 6100+ levels now to complete the corrective rally from 5690.Since Nifty may be moving in a range of 200-300 points (5800/5900-6200),so up/down moves of Nifty may be confusing for the next few days.I expect Nifty to complete the corrective rally around month end.But incase Nifty crosses above 6200 with volumes and momentum,then Nifty could make new highs above 6300.

Dec15 Update

Nifty drifted down below 5900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.35 breadth.
2.13th day since the lows of 5690,27th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed below 5900 .The move since 5690 is corrective in nature.If Nifty is starting its new leg down, then it should move with momentum below 5690 else if Nifty moves down for 1-2 days to around 5700 & then bounces then Nifty will likely head towards 6100+.On the downside,I consider strong support at 5200 though 5350-5550 also act as support areas.

Dec14 Update

Nifty was ranged in 5900-5950 today and closed near 5950 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 2.8 breadth.
2.12th day since the lows of 5690 and 26th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty moved up for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty should likely take out the previous swing highs of 6069 before giving any pause in this rally.I expect the move upto/above 6069 in next few days.Time taken since the highs/lows indicate that this upmove is likely a corrective move.I don't expect a deeper cut in december but I would remain cautious if the rally shows signs of weakening around 6100+.

Dec13 Update

Nifty moved up above 5900 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 3.3 breadth.
2.11days since the lows of 5690,25 days since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 5900 levels and above 5ema.It appears Nifty is in 5800-6100 range now.I see the move of last 11 days ie since 5690 as corrective move of the downfall from 6338-5690.If true then Nifty should topout at ~6100-6200 levels and then fall again below 5690.
Any momentum fall below 5690 will likely be 2nd leg of the downfall.
On the bullish side,Nifty may have formed a double bottom or may form a double bottom around/Just below 5690.If such a move happens that does not go much below 5690,only then I would consider that as double bottom.

Dec10 Update

Nifty dipped at open and bounced back to close above 5850 with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 3.0 breadth.
2.10th day since the lows of 5690,24th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty bounced today to close above 5850.Nifty may have reversed on upside for short term here.If true then Nifty would likely go above 6069/6100 levels in next few days.
Nifty is undergoing medium term correction and I don't see it has been completed.
I expect another leg on downside.So this upside may just be part of corrective move of Nifty since 5690 .Once this corrective move is over,most likely above 6100/6150 ,Nifty may slide down sharply.

Dec9 Update

Nifty had a selloff today in the 2nd half with higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.3% with .07 breadth.
2.9th day since the lows of 5690 and 23rd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was sideways till noon but after that selloff started and Nifty closed below 5800 with very -ve breadth.2 days in a row Nifty has been down with very -ve breadth.Todays breadth is pointing to breadth capitulation but the price action does not tell so.Nearest support is at 5550 and major support at 5200.I expect Nifty to take rebound from support levels in next few days.If Nifty rebounds from ~5500 levels, I would keep the option of Nifty going back to 5200 levels open unless 6100-6150 is taken out.

Dec8 Update

Nifty gapped down and drifted below 5900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.15 breadth.
2.8th day since the lows of 5690 and 22nd day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty was down for 4th consecutive day with very -ve breadth.Nifty's closing below daily 5ema low,indicates that if this is correction of the 380 point rise from 5690, then it should be over Else if the fall continues then Nifty would likely make new low below 5690.On the downside 5200 is a major support for Nifty though 5350-5550 are also support zones.

Dec7 Update

Nifty drifted down today but recovered some ground later with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.37 breadth.
2.7th day since the lows of 5690,21st day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed in the red with -ve breadth for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty is in corrective mode in short term,and I expect Nifty to resolve on the upside from here.But if Nifty moves further down from hereon, then new lows below 5690 may be possible.Strength of Nifty on any upmove will determine Whether Nifty can make new highs or touch earlier highs of 6338.Nifty will face resistance in 6150-6200 zone on the upside.

Dec6 Update

Nifty gapped up and went above 6050 but later retraced below 6000 levels with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty flat closing with 0.7 breadth.
2.6th day since the low of 5690 and 20th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty retraced all the gains of morning and closed below 6000 levels.Nifty retraced from 60% level ie ~6080 indicating resistance at that point.I expect Nifty to attempt that level again and close above it for the capitulating move.If Nifty reverses from around 6100 level in next few days,I expect that the move on downside could be very sharp and 5690 may be taken out in 1-2 days.Weakness below 5950/5850 will be critical for further downsides.

Dec3 Update

Nifty was sideways today with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.24 breadth.
2.5th day since the lows of 5690 and 19th day since the highs of 6338.
3.Nifty up by 4.2% on weekly,reversing 1.5 bars of the 3 week fall in 1 week.

Nifty moved sideways and closed below 6000 levels.This was first pause of the Nifty and Nifty appears to be set for further gains early next week probably upto 6100 or so.This rally appears to me a corrective rally.Signs of further weakness in upmove will give indications of a reversal.

Dec2 Update

Nifty continued with its upmove and closed above 6000 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.9 breadth.
2.4th day since the lows if 5690,18th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 6000 levels but moved in a very narrow range of 49 points during the day.Till today Nifty has retraced about 53% of its fall.The scenarios that I have with me are:
Bullish: Nifty will undergo mild pullback upto 5850/5900 and then continue its upward journey.
Bearish:1)Nifty may reverse from here from around 6050 levels and make a deep cut below 5400 in next 6-8 days.2)Nifty reverses from around 6050 and makes a low just below 5690 level(with higher weekly closing though) and bounces back towards 6300 levels.
Which of the scenarios will play out is difficult to say(or may be some other scenario).I look for weakening of the upside strength here and then reversal first.

Dec1 Update

Nifty bounced up sharply with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 6.8 breadth.
2.3rd day since the lows of 5690,17th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 5950 levels,above the resistance zone of 5930.Todays move exhibited good strength,so if sustained for another few days could indicate that it is an impulsive move.But Nifty has not formed a double bottom for such a sharp slide of 3 weeks,so I would look for a Pullback/Pause of this rally to see till What levels will Nifty retrace.I expect the downleg to begin sometime next week.If that does not happen,Nifty could well make a new high in December and crack down in early January.

Nov30 Update

Nifty moved up from yesterdays level with high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 3.0 breadth.
2.16th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty's upmove today was big on volumes and breadth too was +ve but the price action was only modest.Given todays breadth,Nifty could move upwards of 5900 in next few days in this pullback.5930 would act as important resistance level for Nifty.My view remains the same that Nifty would turn down for one more leg of downside.

Nov29 Update

Nifty bounced above 5800 but with lower volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 1.15 breadth.
2.15 days since the highs of 6338.

Nifty has a bounce today after 4 days of fall.Nifty now faces resistance at 5850 -5930 .Nifty may rally for few days before falling back below 5700 again.I dont think Niifty has made a capitulating move for this 14 day fall,So I would look for another leg down probably a little lower than the previous low of 5690(1-3%) inorder to signal capitulation move of Nifty.Also if Nifty has already made a short term low,then Nifty should sustain above 5930-5950 levels for more upside moves.

Nov26 Update

Nifty broke below 5700 but later recovered some ground with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.15 breadth.
2.131st day since the medium term lows of 4786,14th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty slipped further and broke below 5700 levels but recovered somewhat later.Breadth is indicating a short term pullback in Nifty now though Nifty can very well fall around next support of 5500 levels before bouncing also.The strength of pullback will only determine whether Nifty Nifty's pullback is a reversal or another leg down will happen.

Nov25 Update

Nifty was flat to sideways till last 1 hr but came down below 5800 during last 1 hr with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.25 breadth.
2.130th day since the lows of 4786 and 13th day since the highs of 6388.

Nifty closed just below 5800.today was 3rd consecutive down day.Nifty in this week is going down but the momentum is moderate.Nifty is trading well below the critical level of 5900 so retracement upto 5500 is open path now.But the time Nifty has taken till now ie 13 days without a decent pullback makes me think that there should be a bounce here and only then should Nifty come to around 5500 levels if at all it is to go around those levels.My timeline for this to playout will be till around 10dec.

Nov24 Update

Nifty moved sideways till midday but slid after that and closed below 5900 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.57 breadth.
2.129th day since the previous medium term lows of 4786,12th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty slipped later in the day to close below 5900.Today was 12th day of the downside ,so Nifty may be nearing a decent pullback or a final bottom.A fall from here could be moderate only(~5400),since the timewise surprise is not there.

Nov23 Update

Nifty reversed yesterdays move breaking the fridays low of 5863 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.26 breadth.
2.128th day since the lows of 4786,11th day since the highs of 6338.

Niftys selloff today indicates that yesterdays move was a dead cat bounce and lower levels are ahead.Nifty may move in and around 5800-5900 for few days.I expect there should be one final push down with momentum that should result in capitulation.My expected levels are from 5400-5700.Though I am also ready for downside surpises.

Nov22 Update

Nifty bounced back today closing above 6000 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 2.1 breadth.
2.10 the day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty may have formed a short term bottom at 5863.With todays big bounce,I expect todays rally may be Wave B(A-B-C correction) or a new impulsive move.If todays upmove is just retracement of the 2 week fall then 6150-6200 is the upper target with intermediate resistance coming in at 6050 also.But if Nifty sustains above the resistance levels, then it may be headed to new highs above 6300.For ABC correction I expect the time frame to be upto 10dec( 3weeks more).

Nov19 Update

Nifty moved in range of 5950-6000 before breaking down below 5900 with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.8% with 0.2 breadth.
2.126th day since the lows of 4786,9th day since the highs of 6338.
3.2nd consecutive week down.Nifty down by 6.7% in 2 weeks.

Nifty closed below 5900 after 9 weeks.Since Nifty has closed below weekly low 5Ema today,So Monday should see Nifty bouncing back indicating short term bottom.
But If there is no bounce on Monday,then I see Nifty to crash down on Monday/Tuesday and make a panic low probably below 5400 levels.Though I expect a bounce from lower levels and a rally towards year end,I am cautious about whether a Top(for rally from Mar09) has been formed on the Nifty.(should get clear within few weeks time).

Nov18 Update

Nifty dropped below the previous swing lows of 5937 but bounced from just above 5900 levels with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.5 breadth.
2.125th day since the lows of 4786,8th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty's closing at/above day low 5ema indicates capitulation underway for the fall of 8 days after a bounce from ~5900 levels.If Nifty falls further from here with momentum below 5900 then deeper levels of 5500 and below may be there in next few days.Else Nifty may either consolidate here from 5900-6150/6200 range and then resume the downtrend or may continue moving up to make new highs above 6300.

Nov16 Update

Nifty had a selloff and closed below 6000 with higher volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.2% with 0.13 breadth.
2.124th day since the medium term lows of 4786,7 days since the highs of 6338.

Nifty sold off below 6000 levels with big volumes and very -ve breadth.This week is continuing with the momentum of last week,this to me implies that Nifty should have some capitulation and then a bounce before the end of this week.If this week turns out to be -ve closing(which looks likely) then the big move up of Diwali week was part of weekly correction that started from first week of October ie this is 7th week of correction.So the low formed this week should likely be the low(within 1% range) for the next 6-8 weeks.

Nov15 Update

Nifty edged up above 6100 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 0.67 breadth.
2.123rd day since the medium term lows of 4786,6 days since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed above 6100 with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Both bearish and bullish options are open for now.Though I expect a correction on monthly basis in November that would imply Nifty remaining in bear mode for next 8-10 days.But If Nifty is headed up from here then there could be a correction in 1/2nd week of december.

Nov12 Update

Nifty had a selloff and it went below 6100 and closed below it with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 2.0% with 0.18 breadth.
2.122nd day since the medium term lows of 4786,5th day since the highs of 6338,11 days since the lows of 5937.
3.Nifty retraced 80% of the weekly gains of previous week.(295up/241down).
4.Nifty closed well below 5ema on weekly basis since the start of this rally from 4786.

Nifty had a good selloff and closed well below 6100.Nifty is undergoing momentum selling.Since last week's rise has been retraced 80% on weekly basis,this to me implies Nifty is weak and should undergo further deeper correction in the coming days.There is likely to be bigger fall before expiry.

Nov11 Update

Nifty had a moderate selloff from 6300 with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.54 breadth.
2.121st day since the lows of 4786,10th day since the lows if 5937,4th day since the highs of 6338.

Nifty closed below 6200 and daily low 5Ema,indicating that daily capitulation is done/nearly done.Here Nifty may be at critical juncture,since tomorrow is a weekly closing and a close below 6200 may keep bearish options of a fall upto ~5500 open in November series.If Nifty bounces tomorrow and closes around 6250, then the correction may well be over and higher targets of 6400-6600 may be reached.But a weekly close ~6200 or below could keep me cautious for next week.If Nifty indeed cuts down to 5500 or below in next 1-2 weeks,I would expect a bounce upto 6000+ by year end but new highs on Nifty may be difficult to say.

Nov10 Update

Nifty moved sideways inside yesterdays range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.120th day since the medium term lows of 4786 and 9th day since the lows of 5937.

Nifty had an inside day indicating that the short term correction is not yet done.I expect sideways movement for next few days before Nifty breaks out decisively above 6350.However any sharp movement on downside below 6150 will open up new scenario on the downside.

Nov9 Update

Nifty drifted sideways to down with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.8th day since the short term lows of 5937 and 119th day since the medium term lows of 4786.

Nifty it seems is undergoing short term correction.Nifty could fall by 2-4% in next few days and then bounce up to make new highs.After a 4 week correction ,Nifty moved up by ~5% last week,so that points to an impulsive move on weekly basis.Thus Nifty's current impulsive move should continue till there is a crack of 2-3% on weekly basis.I expect here Nifty to move up atleast till expiry and then undergo some weekly correction in early december or so.

Nov8 Update

Nifty was sideways to -ve all day with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.65% with 0.83 breadth.
2.117th day since the lows of 4786.

Nifty moved in a range of 6266-6335 and closed below 6300.Nifty may well have entered a short term correction after a rally of 400 points in 6 days.If Nifty stays above 6150 this week then Nifty is likely undergoing short term correction of the impulsive move from 5930-6330,and Nifty could likely move to 6500-6600 after the correction.But if Nifty undergoes deeper cut below 6100 and sustains below that , then there could be deeper cut ahead.

Nov5 Update

Nifty closed at new highs above 6300 on Diwali day.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.5%.
2.116th day of rally since the lows of 4786,6th day of the rally from 5937.

Nifty closed at new highs though didnot take out the earlier peak of 6357.Weekly closing was very strong ,up by 5% indicating that the weekly correction is likely over and a new impulsive move may have started.Since this week was up by 5%, so next week could be consolidation with flat weekly closing.Any close below 6084(weekly low) would signal of a move developing on the downside.

Nov4 Update

Nifty bounced up above 6200 and closed well above 6250 with lower volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 1.3 breadth.
2.116 days of rally since the lows of 4786.(Since Nifty has taken out the earlier highs ,so the previous 15 days are just the correction).

Nifty bounced today and made a new yearly high.Though volumes and breadth were not strong indicating divergence.
I hold the view that since Nifty has not capitulated on weekly basis and bounced so another fall may happen for as part of the correction that started from 6284(Possibly irregular abc correction).The strong support level is 5550,so around that is the first possible target of Nifty.But if Nifty continues its uprun next week on strength and above 6350 then I may assume that correction may have ended and the upmove may continue for another 3-5 weeks without any correction.

Nov3 update

Nifty bounced above 6150 and moved again in a narrow range of 6150-6180 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.45 breadth.
2.15th day since the highs of 6284.

Nifty's move today though +ve but was weak on breadth and was in a very narrow range.Breakout/breakdown looks imminent from here.Nifty didnot exhibit any strength in the 6150+ price range,volumes and breadth too are not confirming a strong trend.I dont expect sideways move to continue here ahead.Since Nifty has moved upto 65-70% retracement,I would look for reversal of Nifty from here.
But any strong momentum move above 6200 only will invalidate my bear scenario,for possible upside targets of 6400-6600.

Nov2 Update

Nifty moved sideways in narrow range with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by .03% with 0.9 breadth.
2.14th day since the highs of 6284.

Nifty moved in narrow range of 6094-6138 and closed flat with neutral breadth.Nifty is halting at around 60% retracement of the fall from 6284.For the bear case,Nifty can move up till about 6200 also.Only a fast momentum fall from here could give clear signal about Nifty's downfall.Daily charts are showing weakness and I don't see capitulation having happened for the weakness presisting for the last 14 days.

Nov1 Update

Nifty bounced above 6100 and closed above it with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 2.0 breadth.
2.13th day since the highs of 6284.

Nifty continued with its bounce for the second day though with moderate volumes. Nifty's close above 6150 will bring more confidence about the strength of this rally.I would be doubtful about this bounce as just the correction until I see strength in Nifty in 6150-6200 zone for a Bull case scenario.
For the bear case I expect that the reversal from here could be sharp and swift and breach of 6000 levels would see sudden sharp fall.

Oct29 Update

Nifty dropped below yesterdays low and broke below 5950 but later bounced back above 6000 levels with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 0.37 breadth.
2.12th day since the highs of 6284.
3.4th weekly down close.

Nifty's 2nd downleg from 6150 completed today.Nifty may have entered a short term up now for 2-3 days,and the upside can stretch upto 6150.Both downlegs have lasted for 3-5 days.I expect the 3rd leg to be also of the same duration ie 3-5/6 days.But for bigger fall to happen and Nifty to breach 5950 level decisively ,momentum will be needed.Since Nifty has breached it today and done hourly close below 5950,I expect that this level has fallen now and its only a matter of time before Nifty tears apart this level.I would look for momentum in the next downleg of Nifty to determine what possible levels could Nifty target.With 4th weekly closing below the highest weekly closing,I see this as a weekly correction.Since the time taken for this correction is already 4 weeks,I expect the correction to not cross the 15-20% zone ie 5000 levels.

Oct28 Update

Nifty moved sideways but slid sharply in last 30min with high volumes(though expiry day also) and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.63 breadth.
2.11th day since the highs of 6284.


Nifty slid very sharply in last 30min closing 55 points below 3.00pm close.If this is the downward momentum,Nifty should continue with it tomorrow and broke and close below 5960 levels.If Nifty again goes into sideways then the possibility of a bounce will also increase in the coming days.This looks like a weekly correction and Nifty has not shown any signs of weekly capitulation,So I expect that Nifty will make some move in the coming days possibly in the downside direction.

Oct 27 Update

Nifty dropped lower below 6000 levels with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.15% with 0.6 breadth.
2.10th day since the highs of 6284.

Nifty broke below 6000 levels and weakness was persistent since open with high of today being lower than yesterdays low.This is a very bearish signal.50sma @5850-5900 can generate a bounce but I expect Nifty may undergo deeper correction now in next few days by Diwali.

Oct 26 Update

Nifty was sideways today with -ve bias with moderate volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.7 breadth.
2.9th day since the highs of 6284.

Nifty move in a narrow range and closed below 6100 today.Sideways move is difficult to infer about the next move though the bias is towards downside.I would look for the next 3 days of action of this week to get a good signal for a breakdown OR a further move up beyond 6300.

Oct25 Update

Nifty moved up with moderate volumes and +ve breadth with slow momentum.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.6 breadth.
2.8th day since the highs of 6284.
3.3rd day since the short term low of 5966.

Next 2-3 days will be important as Nifty should attempt to move above 6200-6250 levels ,failing which there could be bigger downside fall.I will remain highly cautious about Niftys move this week.

Oct22 Update

Nifty drifted down in sideways manner with moderate volumes and neutral breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 1.0 breadth.
2.7th day since the highs of 6284.
3.3rd weekly close below the highest weekly closing of 6143.

Nifty after yesterdays bounce drifted down.A short term bottom is in place for nifty in the range of 5960-5990.So if Nifty shows any strength next week, then only that bottom will be confirmed else Nifty's bounce may just be correction to the downside.Also it seems like Nifty is undergoing weekly correction, being down for 3 weeks(this week is almost flat),so capitulation on weekly is yet to be seen.My expectation is that Nifty in next 2 weeks (most probably) should probably make a medium term bottom.

Oct21 Update

Nifty bounced above 6100 level today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.0% with 2.25 breadth.
2.6th day since the highs of 6284.
3.Nifty closed above 5ema/20sma after 4 days.

Nifty's bounce today may either be a one day affair or it may be few days of correction to the downtrend or a new bullish wave.Nifty breadth was 48/2 indicating extreme.This to me indicates that Nifty can reverse all of the gain tomorrow and if that happens the chances of big fall will be high early next week.But if Nifty closes above 6100 levels but below 6143 then Nifty may well be undergoing correction to the downtrend for next few days.But if Nifty continues todays surge with a closing above 6150, then Nifty will likely make new highs in the coming days.Tomorrow being weekly closing, its going to be important.

Oct20 Update

Nifty was sideways with -ve bias with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.5 breadth.
2.5th day since the highs of 6284.
3.35th day since the previous swing low of 5350.
4.4th consecutive day below 5ema/20sma.


Nifty drifted below 6000 and closed below it.Nifty's fall after the bounce to 6127 is waning in momentum and thus I expect Nifty to turn up in short term with possible upside target of 6150-6200 by middle of next week.I think Nifty is undergoing ZigZag correction, and so another down leg should start unfolding from middle to later half of next week.

Oct19 Update

Nifty traded above 6100 in first half only to selloff in the last 2 hrs with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.9 breadth.
2.4th down day since the highs of 6284.
3.34th day since the previous swing low of 5350.
4.Nifty closed below 5ema/20sma for 3rd consecutive day.

Nifty faced resistance at 6100+ levels and sold off intensely during last 2hr and closed at the lows of the day.My probable bear scenarios as mentioned earlier say that either Nifty will bottom out for short term in 1-2 days around 5950 and then bounce back above 6100 by middle of next week before going down again OR Nifty will fall big in the next 2-3 days.5960 remains a critical Pivotal point and momentum breach of 5960 with hourly and daily closing below it should likely see Nifty crashing down.

Oct18 Update

Nifty dropped below 6000 and bounced back in the later half with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.63 breadth.
2.103rd day since the lows of 4786(3rd day since the highs of 6284).
3.33rd day since the previous swing low of 5350.

Nifty bounced back after dropping below 6000 at the open.Today was the 3rd day since the highs.In the bear scenario,Nifty may either be going ABC zigzag correction in which case first leg ie A may be done and nifty may now oscillate between 5950-6200 for next 4-6 days after which will be Wave C.OR Nifty may have Just paused in its downturn and may resume the downtrend by latter half of this week.But for both these scenarios the CRITICAL point will be an hourly/daily close below 5960, below which I expect there to be freefall to the ultimate target.
On the bullish side,If this was just the correction in the rally ,Nifty should close above 6200 levels before the end of this week.

Oct15 Update

Nifty continued with its selloff and closed below previous low with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.9% with 0.33 breadth.
2.102nd day since the lows of 4786.
3.32nd day since the previous swing low of 5350.
4.2nd consecutive weekly close in the red.


Nifty's sustained selloff of 2 days and the break of previous low opens the scenario of Nifty having entered medium term reversal ie correction of the rally from 4786. There are multiple wave count options even in bear scenario.My probable bear scenarios say that incase of medium term reversal,Nifty may keep going down towards 5200 probably by next week or early next-next week.Nifty may not bounce to give a shorting chance at this stage .A pause may be there inbetween till Nifty reaches its final target.Also 2 consecutive -ve weekly close increases the probability that Nifty will cut down sharply next week.Since Nifty has not made a new high,I would expect Nifty will bounce after completing the correction and make a new high above 6300.So Correction that may come should be a buying opportunity.

Oct14 Update

Nifty gapped up only to selloff at higher levels and closed below 6200.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.48 breadth.
2.101st day since the lows of 4786.
3.31st day since the lows of 5350.

Nifty could not sustain at higher levels and sold off at 6280+ levels.Yesterdays breakout appeared to be real and headed for new highs above 6300 but todays correction is somewhat more than what I would fit in a breakout scenario.I would expect that Nifty will resume its upward march in 1-2 days.But if Nifty continues to go down and closed below 6090 then Bearish scenario of medium term reversal will have to be looked on more closely.In the bull case scenario, todays selloff shows that volatility is increasing with higher levels indicating near to the top level.Tomorrow is weekly closing and would be interesting to see where Nifty will close.For the past 10 years October has seen atleast one selloff/pullback as last week of october has some seasonal effect.Since we are approaching a top ,a selloff/pullback is very much in the offing now.

Oct13 Update

Nifty bounced up after the 4 days of correction with high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points of today.

1.Nifty up by 2.35% with 2.2 breadth.
2.100th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.30th day since the previous swing low 5350.

Nifty bounced and made a new yearly high and closed above 6200 levels.The breadth was good but not very strong indicating Nifty will move further up with moderate price action for another few days.In 6300-6400 range,Nifty's rally from Mar09 will reach equivalence with the fall from Jan08-Oct08 on weekly and daily basis.I would look for a breach of the low of 6057 as the signal for medium term reversal now.I expect Nifty to have +ve weekly closing this week and next week at the least.Any weekly closing at the middle or lower end of the weekly range would be early signs of reversal for Nifty.

Oct12 Update

Nifty drifted down and broke the lows of previous two days with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.55 breadth.
2.99th day since the lows of 4786.
3.29th day since the previous swing low of 5350.

Nifty moved in 6050-6150 range today and closed in the middle of the range.Yesterdays move thus was small bounce after short term capitulation of two days fall.Today's fall may have one more down leg left, probably for a close below the lows of 6057.I expect a bounce from hereon after this correction.But if the fall is big trend reversal,price action should increase with subsequent fall in Nifty.

Oct11 Update

Nifty was sideways today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.9 breadth.
2.98th day since the lows of 4786.
3.28th day since the previous swing low of 5350.

Nifty moved in a narrow range of 6100-6150 broadly.Nifty has been facing resistance above 6000 and moving slowly.Todays move looks to be start of a new move upwards.Since the previous upmove lasted for 3 days ,I would expect around the same ie 3-5 number of days for this move also.The important point to note will be how much Nifty will be able to extend the previous high of 6223.A new high if,100-200 points higher only could well be the top of this move as well of the complete rally(from 4786).

Oct8 Update

Nifty remains in corrective mode with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.57 breadth.
2.97th day since the lows of 4786.
3.27th day from previous swing low of 5350.
4.1st weekly correction after 5 weeks.

Nifty continued its correction but recovered from the lows towards the end.For the short term correction,this is near capitulation now.So a Bounce should come for Nifty if this is a short term correction and go beyond 6200 closing basis.If not then the correction should continue with increased momentum inorder to signal medium term reversal.I expect Nifty may have atleast 1 more bounce in it before it undergoes medium term reversal in the last 2 weeks of october.

Oct7 Update

Nifty failed to cross 6200 levels and came down with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.52 breadth.
2.96th day since the lows of 4786.
3.26th day since the lows of 5350.

Nifty corrected moderately today.Todays closing was below the 5ema,so short term capitulation is over or nearly over(by tomorrow).So I expect Nifty to bounce from here towards 6300+ levels.But if this correction deepens and continues below 6000 then this could be the medium term reversal of the Nifty with confirmation on hourly and daily close below previous low of 5963.

Oct6 update

Nifty was in sideways move with upward bias with high volumes and +ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.65% with 1.6 breadth.
2.95th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.25th day of rally since 5350.

Nifty is extending its rally and not giving up easily, belying all expectations of correction.But Nifty's state is quite stretched and momentum is not so strong in the last few days.I would expect Nifty to exhaust itself while rallying and thus would appear signs of reversal.Since October last week has seen some of the bottoms for the Nifty correction,I would look for the signs of exhaustion in Nifty now.My most probable scenario for Nifty is for a cut to ~5200.

Oct5 Update

Nifty was sideways with -ve bias and high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 1.35 breadth.
2.94th day since the lows of 4786.
3.24th day since the swing low of 5350.

Nifty failed to go above 6200 levels today and closed in the red.If this is a consolidation/pause,Nifty will bounce up above 6200 in next 1-2 days else Nifty should go to previous swing low of 5950.On the down scenario , I expect Nifty to hang/bounce from around 5950 for 2-3 days before falling down towards 5500 levels.The move from 5950-5500 should be sharp and swift.Remaining 3 days of this week will clear up whether Nifty is positioning itself for the fall OR it wants to scale up further.

Oct4 Update

Nifty continued its upmove and moved beyond 6200 before pulling back below 6200 with high volumes and -ve breadth.

1.Nifty up by 0.25% with 0.8 breadth.
2.93rd day of rally from previous swing low of 4786.
3.23rd day of rally from 5350.

Nifty continued with its uptrend but the pullback after 6200 indicates selling pressure coming in at higher levels.If Nifty does not cross todays high in next 2-3 days then a bigger pullback may happen.Since the number of days for this leg of rally as well for the rally from May25 seems quite extended at this point,so a bigger pullback will likely be retracement of the rally from 4786.

Oct1 Update

Nifty surged above 6100 today with high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.9% with 2.7 breadth.
2.92 day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.22nd day of rally since 5350/5402.
4.5th consecutive up week for Nifty.

Nifty continues its march upward.Todays action was good momentum with +ve breadth and volumes unlike yesterday.Nifty's rally today has turned into +ve breadth from weak to -ve breadth since many days.Such a transition occuring on 22nd day of a mature rally points towards rally heading towards capitulation because Nifty has not yet undergone any significant(2 or more bars) daily correction.Though Nifty can run more and make a new high above 6357 from here,I would like to wait for a daily correction before initiating any short or long position.

Sep30 Update

Nifty drifted down but rebounded above 6000 with high volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.7 breadth.
2.91st day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.21st day of rally from 5350/5402.

Nifty rebounded from 5963 level but the rally was on -ve breadth.Today being the first up day after a correction, so -ve breadth indicates that this rally could be the last one.Number of days in this leg of rally are already 21, indicating a very mature rally.If this rally extends into next week,then later half of october is likely to be critical for a correction.

Sep29 Update

Nifty drifted down below 6000 today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.42 breadth.
2.2nd day since the highs of 6035/6073.
3.Nifty closed below 5ema after 20 days.

Nifty's closing below 5ema indicates start of short term correction.This correction can either be correction of the 700 point rally or of the entire rally from 4786 or of the bull market from Mar09 level of 2539.First important level to watch out for will be 5700 (50% of 700 pt rally).5350 is the next important level being the previous swing low.Below this 4700 is the major support with 4950& 5150 being other support levels besides 5000 as important psychological level.
So for the 88 day,1300 point rally ,minimum correction should be below 5350 ie probably around 5000-5100 levels.

Sep28 Update

Nifty was sideways with downside bias and moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.7 breadth.
2.89th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.19th day of rally from 5350/5402.

Nifty drifted down in sideways manner.Nifty has slowed down in last few days with -ve breadth, indicating Nifty needs a consolidation/correction now before the next move.Since the duration of the rally has stretched to 89 days,so the correction may also be the medium term correction.My indicators point to probable correction in 1st week and last week of October.But I am not expecting the big crash to sub 4500 levels in this correction.For that I suppose $index turning up and SPX going down below 900 will be needed which I don't see them running in that direction atleast in the coming weeks.

Sep27 Update

Nifty moved up in sideways manner making a new high but on moderately higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 0.9 breadth.
2.88th day of rally from lows of 4786.
3.18th day of rally from 5350/5402.

Nifty has reached the upper end of the rally in terms of days taken ie 18 days.Also momentum is waning with each rise, indicating Nifty is ready to undergo correction of this 700 point rally now from 5350.There are two three scenarios that I have for the correction, but the minimum retracement that I think is around 5700 levels before a bounce.Break of previous swing low of 5932 will confirm the onset of short term correction.

Sep24 Update

Nifty reversed the loss of last two days and closed above 6000 levels with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.9 breadth.
2.87th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.4th consecutive up week.11.5% rally in these 4 weeks.

Nifty made a weekly close above 6000.Since Nifty has rebounded ,so I expect it move higher for few days before reversing again.Swing low of 5932 will be a critical level and if broken will indicate Nifty's reversal now.But since Nifty's correction looks very likely now,so Nifty could correct partially(upto 5500-5600) and bounce back and make a new high before finally reversing for the complete reversal.Also Seasonally, Nifty has October last week as its Low week quite often,So 1-2 week before and after October last week is the likely Low for the Nifty.September closing will clear up some scenarios of the Nifty ahead.

Sep23 Update

Nifty was sideways today with downside bias with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.77 breadth.
2.2nd day since the highs of 6032.(84 days of rally).
3.1st time since the rally from 5350 that more than 1 bar has been reversed(in 2days).

Nifty drifted down today with sideways movement.The upside momentum has slowed/reversed.Since the rally from 5350 was a momentum rally so any slowdown/downside should probably indicate the end of rally.If true I expect retracement upto 20sma in next few days ie ~5700.Nifty could cut down big after pausing at 5700 around/after expiry.Any upward thrust above 6037 though will negate the downside scenario and indicate that the rally from 5350 still continues.

Sep22 Update

Nifty moved sideways with downside bias with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.47 breadth.
2.85th day since the lows of 4786.
3.15th day since the lows of 5350/5402.

Nifty broke yesterdays low and closed in the red, though within yesterdays bar.Another 1-2 days of -ve price action will be needed to confirm the reversal of Nifty in short term.The move from 5350 is parabolic in nature , so reversal can be expected to be sharp and swift.Since last pause/correction ,Nifty made a new high 136 points higher before taking another pause today.So the rally from 5350 is slowing down and is nearing its top.

Sep21 Update

Nifty broke above 6000 levels today with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 0.3 breadth.
2.84th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.14th day of rally since 5350/5402.

Nifty moved and closed above 6000 today.Breadth in this rally has been weak.I expect this rally to be the last rally of the bull market since Mar09.Nifty is not yet showing any signs of weakness except weak breadth.A rally in Nifty usually does not go beyond 18-21 days in the best of the rallies in the Past.So with 14 days already gone,the rally may be nearing its end.I expect this weekly closing to be +ve since last week was big +ve ,so this week it should slow down first before reversing.

Sep20 Update

Nifty continued its surge and moved just a tad below 6000 levels with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.7% with 1.5 breadth.
2.83rd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.13th day of rally from 5350/5402.

Nifty continues to bang higher 13th day on the trot.Today's Breadth on Nifty signals capitulation in Index and also broader market's breadth is also indicating capitulation.So top for this 13day rally should be around.The correction following the rally will mark whether it's a Short/Medium/Long term correction.My view is that the top of rally will likely be top of bull market from Mar09 and will be a start of Longer term correction with possible dip to 4700(Minimum) as 1st target OR 4500/below for deeper targets.Breach of Previous lows of 4786 should likely confirm that the correction is long term correction and is WaveC of the Bear market.

Sep17 Update

Nifty moved sideways between 5850-5900 with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 2.1 breadth.
2.82nd day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.12th day of rally from 5402/5348.

Nifty consolidated between 5850-5900 with +ve breadth.Breadth turned +ve today after minor correction of yesterday indicating that broader market is capitulating in this leg of rally.Breadth was neutral to -ve since last 3-4 days of the rally.This should be the end of Wave5.Though Nifty is likely to go above 5900 for 1-2 days.The correction for this entire leg of rally from 4786 should be as written earlier within 8-10 days of the Top.

Sep16 Update

Nifty surpassed 5900 in early today before pulling back with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.4 breadth.
2.1st down day after 80 days of rally from 4786.


Nifty pull back today though well within the Previous days bar.Nifty is due for short term correction,so may have started it today.In such a case I expect Nifty to pullback more probably upto ~5600.5350-5550 is the previous range that Nifty broke so that is a strong support zone.So If Nifty is entering into medium term reversal then this pullback should stop well above 5550 and then enter into the support zone with big momentum inorder to break below it.Nifty's behaviour of the next few days will tell the intentions where Nifty intend to go.

Sep15 Update

Nifty continued its upturn crossing 5850 with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 0.65 breadth.
2.80th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.10th day of rally from 5402/5350.

Nifty continued its upsurge but the breadth stayed -ve.This breakout rally is different in the sense that breadth is neutral to -ve on this breakout.Sustenance of this rally should be seen for 2-3 weeks before hoping onto this rally for bigger upmoves.The other scenario being that if this is the last freakout rally,then on reversal Nifty should slide down below previous short/medium term swing lows.I see the chances of Nifty breaking down from here high going into expiry and the week after that.My natural indicator observation is for a straight line fall to a new medium term bottom,that is below the previous medium term bottom range of 4500-4800.

Sep14 Update

Nifty continued its upsurge crossing 5800 levels with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 0.4 breadth.
2.79th day of rally since the lows of 4786.
3.9th day of the rally from 5402/5350.

Nifty continued its upward momentum but the breadth turned -ve today.This indicates that Nifty is due for a healthy correction in short term.Nifty could enter into short term correction and then make marginally new highs and then undergo Medium term correction OR the correction now will be a Medium term correction.My expectation of correction most likely before Oct15/Nov5(worst case) stands and I will review it only if Nifty goes well above 6000 levels.

Sep13 Update

Nifty extended its breakout on the 5th day above 5750 with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 2.1% with 1.1 breadth.
2.78th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty has shown good momentum on this breakout.But the breadth is not supportive of the momentum.Upside pattern potential is for a target of ~6000.Beyond that,I cannot come up with any possible pattern/scenario.Given the momentum Nifty is exhibiting,I expect Nifty to go to its maximum target probably in next 2-4 weeks.Also the breakout can be a shakeout for the bears before the downleg starts.Since the correction in a sharp upward momentum will also be sharp,so start of downleg will be difficult to know initially.Breach of previous swing low of 5350 will be critical point for the downswing.

Sep9 Update

Nifty moved upto about 5650 with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.0 breadth.
2.77th day of rally since the lows of 4786.

Nifty moved upto 5650,though the breadth has been neutral for last3 days indicating that Nifty is moving up in resistance and short term correction should set in soon.Nifty's move above 5600 has broken a channel drawn from Nov highs of 5181.The break above 5600 does not pose any further big resistance on the upside.I expect that this could act as sentiment breaker for the bears and thus for the Nifty to make a Top.Unless 5350 is broken,Nifty's reversal could not be confirmed.Though with todays Weekly closing Nifty has completed 5 wave impulse from 4786 on weekly basiswith Wave1~=Wave5 and Wave3 being extended.Though My expectation is for a slide to the lows by Oct15,but if proven wrong I would extend my time range to ~Nov5(44th week of year).Beyond that I don't think I can make out any other scenario for the Nifty to go down in this year.
My probable scenario is for Nifty to go down to first lows by Oct-Nov'10 and then rally and then make final lows by Feb-Mar'11 and to retest those lows by July-Sept'11.

Sep8 Update

Nifty moved sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.05% with 1.2 breadth.
2.76th day of upmove since the lows of 4786.

Nifty was ranged in yesterdays range.Nifty seems to be topping out here on short term given the price action and breadth of last 2 days.This could also be a Medium/Long term top,but it will only be known on subsequent move of Nifty.This weekly closing is likely to be now above 5600,so if Nifty undergoes weekly correction next week,then chances of Nifty having formed a medium/long term top this week will increase.

Sept7 update

Nifty extended its upmove by breaking above 5600 with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.15 breadth.
2.75th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty broke above 5600 and closed above it also.Breadth was weak today indicating not much upside in this move of rally now.On the weekly RSI chart,the wave structure appears to be extended Wave3 that is now followed by Wave5.Wave1 was about 310 points ,so Wave5 can be around that since Wave3 is longest and extended wave.Till now Wave5 is ~275 points.So this weekly closing could be above 5600,thus maintaining equality between Wave1 and Wave5.Break of 5350 only will confirm the reversal of Nifty.

Sept6 update

Nifty bounced up strongly making new highs with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 3.1 breadth.
2.74th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn.

Nifty made a strong comeback with +ve breadth.Given the breadth,Nifty is likely to be in a rally mode for another 2-3 days atleast before a short term correction/ consolidation.This rally now is the longest rally of the bull market from Mar09.
Since weekly retracement of the 1 week fall in Nifty was ~60%,So if the weekly closing this week is below the previous highest weekly close of 5530,then this rally could well be suckers rally before the fall,else Nifty will again make some topping Pattern.My expectation is that now to Oct15 is a very high probability zone of big fall in Nifty.6-10 days from the top is when Nifty may make a dip as Nifty stays in correction for 6-8 days before bouncing back.All eyes are waiting for Nifty to undergo correction,So 6-10 days is where i see Nifty could surprise even the bears.

Sep3 update

Nifty was in sideways range today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.5 breadth.
2.9th day since the highs of 5549.

Nifty moved in yesterdays range and closed in the red.Since All previous corrections in Wave5 have been surpassed in 7/8 days,so this bounce being just a retracement remains valid.Another 1-2 days 5549 is not crossed,then chances of a steeper correction will increase.Also this week,Nifty retraced 58% of last weeks fall.All previous corrections on weekly basis in Wave5 have been retraced completely/or more than 90% in the next week.These are indications that reversal may have happened in Nifty at 5549.Also 21 days from the highs is critical time to make a bottom or close to bottom.So with 9 days gone, next 12 days could see lot of action.

Sep2 update

Nifty extended its bounce while moving sideways with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.7 breadth.
2.8th day since the highs of 5549.

Nifty was in sideways range with upside bias.Yesterdays momentum was not there today since Nifty though within the 5550 range but was not comfortable crossing 5500 zone.Also breadth was moderately +ve only.Since the start of Wave5 from 5225,Nifty has closed above its short term correction in 7/8 days on 3 times.So if another 2-3 days Nifty is unable to move past 5550 then Nifty has most likely reversed from 5549 and will go further down.

Sep 1 update

Nifty bounced back today above 5450 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.4% with 4.4 breadth.
2.7th day since the highs of 5549.

Nifty bounced strongly and closed well above 5450.Breadth was 4.4 and was the highest since the rally started from 4786.This could indicate that the bounce from 5350 is just a retracement of the fall from 5549-5348.Since a mature rally does not exhibit such +ve breadth usually.If such is the case then Nifty should break 5350 in volatile manner in the coming days.But if Nifty continues with the uptrend then it could be heading for the new highs above 5550.Bothways,I see Volatility increasing in Nifty,so sharp moves on either side can be expected.Since Sept closing will also be a quarterly closing,so I expect that the chances of Nifty breaking down in Sept are quite high,since the rally from Mar09 has lasted 6 quarters after a fall in 4quarters(Mar08-Dec08).

Aug31 update

Nifty went down further breaking 5350 but recovered later on.Important points for the day .

1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.4 breadth.
2.6th day since the highs of 5549.

Nifty broke the previous swing low of 5350 intraday and bounced from there.In spite of the bounce,Nifty closed in the red.The bounce looks weak ,so if Nifty again goes below 5350 in next few days then further weakness is there in Nifty for deeper downside or else Nifty will have to go above 5450 inorder to confirm the strength of the bounce.

Aug30 update

Nifty moved sideways today with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 0.78 breadth.
2.5th day since the highs of 5549.

Nifty briefly went below 5400 but was mostly confined in 5400-5450 range for rest of the day.Volumes were low and its likely a pause in the downside.Nifty should cut below 5350 levels and take support at 5150-5200 levels in the next few days inorder to maintain the downside momentum.I don't expect Nifty to be in sideways range above 5350.So this week should likely be a bigger cut than last week.

Aug27 update

Nifty drifted down today below 5400 with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.3 breadth.
2.4th day since the highs of 5549.

Nifty broke the previous swing low of 5397 and closed below the previous low of 5414.This indicates that the medium term correction may have started.Further close below 5367 will confirm the medium term correction.Incase of medium term correction , Nifty should likely break the 5350 levels and go to 5200 levels in the next couple of days.5100-5200 is a good support area and I expect Nifty to take support in that area.Incase Nifty has started long term correction then there could be a big slide in the next 2weeks of the order of 20%+.

Aug26 update

Nifty was in sideways range today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 0.76 breadth.
2.3rd day since the highs of 5549.

Nifty moved within yesterday's range.The closing was positive but the breadth was -ve.Breadth in Nifty points to weakness.But Nifty has not yet broken the previous swing low of 5408/5416.Any break and close below these levels only will confirm the reversal of Nifty.Since these are critical levels, so break of these levels can see Nifty going down fast towards the next support levels at 5150-5200.Nifty's reversal if confirmed will make the coming 1-2 weeks very important since incase the reversal is also long term reversal then there could be a big fall also.

Aug25 update

Nifty drifted further down today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.25 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 64 days of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty went down for 2nd consecutive day with breadth of 0.25.If this short term correction Nifty should pause here and consolidate/bounce from here.If not and Nifty closes below 5400 , then Nifty has entered medium term correction with possible targets of 4900-5100.If Nifty breaches these levels also,then Nifty may be entering long term correction ie Bear phase.In Bear phase , I expect Nifty to come down to 4000-4500 levels in the first cut in about 15 days time from the highs ie Aug23.

Aug24 update

Nifty drifted down today with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.5 breadth.
2.1st down day after 64 days of rally from lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty broke the swing lows of last 3 days and closed below 5ema, indicating onset of short term correction.Break and close below 5400 will confirm the medium term correction of the rally from 4786.The rally was 763 points and 61% retracement of this rally is 471 points ie 5080.So Nifty could correct upto this level in short term.Any further weakness beyond 61% level with high momentum could result in markets crashing down.

Aug23 update

Nifty was sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.64th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty was in sideways range today.So since 3 days Nifty is in about 50 points range of 5500-5550.Breadth is neutral to marginally +ve.This indicates weak momentum of the upside rally.With today's closing there is a topping pattern in place.If nifty corrects below 5400 from here, than that would confirm the top being formed today.Number of days of rally also point to Nifty being at close to the top of this leg of rally,Which may or may not be the last leg also.

Aug20 update

Nifty consolidated its gain of last 2 days with moderately high volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.75 breadth.
2.63rd day of rally/1st day of downturn.
3.3rd consecutive weekly close above 5400.

Nifty was sideways today,consolidating the gains of previous 2 days.The volumes and breadth were weak,indicating weak momentum for the upside rally.3 Consecutive weekly close above 5400 indicates Nifty is at inflection point,so if next 2-3 weeks are down, then Nifty may be heading for the much awaited big downward spiral.Close below 5400/5350 is confirmation of start of medium/long term downtrend.If Nifty's top is in place,and big downtrend has started/about to start, then 2nd/3rd week from now could be a big down week ie Week of 3rdSept/10th Sept.

Aug19 update

Nifty bounced up above 5500 making new yearly highs with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.5 breadth.
2.62nd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty moved up strongly but the breadth was only slightly +ve.Today was second day of rally after the brief correction and todays closing was above the previous intraday highs.Since we have seen 4-6 days of upmove in a rally in the last 30 days,so I expect that this upmove should slow down now on its upward ascent.Counts will be considered once the Nifty shows signs of short term correction to 5ema.Break below 5400 should indicate onset of correction of the rally from 4786.Also from no of days,this rally should be near to completion.

Aug18 update

Nifty bounced up strongly with high volumes and marginally +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.4 breadth.
2.61st day of upmove since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty bounced up strongly indicating that the correction was short term and was Wave4 on the extended Wave5(from 5233).This is likely wave5 of extended wave5.According to the counts(that I am considering),Wave3 is less than Wave1 and is of 143 points.So Nifty's Wave5 should likely stay below 5550.There is a likelihood of Nifty making a bull market Top by next week.

Aug17 update

Nifty moved sideways today with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 1.0 breadth.
2.60/6th day since highs of 5492( after 33 days of downturn).

Nifty moved sideways staying within yesterdays range.Nifty didnot break yesterdays low today,so if tomorrow Nifty is +ve or flattish -ve, then Nifty could bounce up again for another go at 5500 with a new weekly high closing.Outside of short term ie beyond 1-2 weeks , I see Nifty reversal to begin.

Aug16 update

Nifty drifted down today with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.6 breadth.
2.59/5th day since the highs of 5492(After 33 days of downturn).

Nifty broke Fridays low and closed below it indicating bearishness.Breach of previous swing low of 5372 will likely take Nifty to ~5200 levels.I expect this to happen in next 1-3 days.Nifty can either bounce up from 5200 OR keep going low.The momentum in next 2-3 days will decide how is Nifty likely to react on/near 5200.

Aug13 update

Nifty moved past 5450 today with high volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.7% with 1.15 breadth.
2.58th day since 4786 lows OR 4th day since the highs of 5492.
3.11th week of rally since the lows of 4786.

Nifty moved in +ve territory but the close was in the middle of today's range.Also breadth was only marginally +ve indicating weak momentum.This move may either be retracement of the fall from 5492-5372 or this is rally after correction upto 5372.If Monday ,Tuesday are down days then I would consider today's move to be retracement of the fall of last 3 days.In such a case expiry week would be critical and Nifty could make a big fall in that week.Else I expect Nifty to make big fall upto the week of September10th.

Aug12 update

Nifty gapped down on open but recovered later on.Volumes were high and breadth -ve.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.8 breadth.
2.3rd consecutive down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty broke below 5400 today.On Intraday basis,the levels have been broken indicating that Nifty may have reversed from its rally.Closing basis confirmation though is still needed.If Nifty has started its downturn,then today was the 3rd day of the downturn and Nifty should target its potential or near potential target within ~20 days ie till about 3rd september.Tomorrow's Weekly closing will be important to see how Nifty closes.

Aug11 update

Nifty moved down today with high volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.75% with 0.55 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty came down for 2nd consecutive day and closed below 5ema and 20sma.Tomorrow's closing will be important,since Nifty must bounce back tomorrow if the rally from 4786 has some legs left else more weakness will push Nifty further down indicating the end of rally from 4786 and start of reversal.Even if Nifty bounces upward,I expect the upward push not to continue beyond middle of next week to be followed by reversal.

Event update- leh cloudburst

A unique event in the form of cloudburst happened on Aug6 in Leh,resulting in heavy flooding and widespread destruction.This was very high intensity rare event.Also the pattern of rains/monsoons this season has been erratic ie very heavy rains followed by spell of normal/humid weather.

Aug10 update

Nifty was sideways down today with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.1st down day after 54 days of rally from 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty drifted down while staying sideways.Now todays move is either part of short term correction going on since last 4 days ,and is to be followed by an upside rally OR Nifty has reversed from its upmove.Next few days of move will indicate.Breach of 5400/5350 should signal the onset of a correction for the rally.

Aug9 update

Nifty made new yearly highs and closed at new high with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty moved up by 0.9% with 2.3 breadth.
2.54th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty closed at new yearly highs.Nifty is inching upward without any momentum on the upside.Nifty is extending its 5th wave that started from 5233.The current wave may be Wave4/Wave5.Any close below 5400/5350 should signal the end of rally and start of reversal.Also Nifty usually makes a top of the rally in the first half,so next 4-5 days could potentially be a top of the Nifty since the number of days of rally is also approaching the maximum Nifty has rallied in last 17 months(66 days of rally).

Aug6 update

Nifty was in sideways with downward bias on moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.2nd down day after 51 days of rally from 4786.

Nifty closed the day below the lows of yesterday,confirming short term correction is on.Today's weekly closing nearly erased all the loss of previous week.If the short term correction stays above 5390 ,then I expect Nifty to make new high and new high weekly closing for next week.Then onwards Nifty could turn down OR If Nifty closed below 5367(last correction low)or breaches 5349(previous intraday low),then Nifty may have reversed from its rally from 4786.Including today,Nifty has done 53 days since the lows of 4786.Given the number of days that different rallies have lasted in the last 17 months,Nifty should be within 5-10 days from the top of this rally.

Aug5 update

Nifty moved sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.9 breadth.
2.1st down day after 51 days of rally from 4786.

Nifty after moving sideways,came down in last 1 hour and closed below 5450.Todays -ve closing signals onset of short term correction.If the correction stays above 5390 for next 3-4 days then Nifty may likely attempt new highs just above 5500.This rally should most likely be the last of the complete rally from 4786.But If Nifty has topped out at 5467,then I expect to see either a fast move down in next few days or some sideways days on the downside followed by a big slide.

Aug4 update

Nifty moved further up making new highs with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.0 breadth.
2.With Nifty crossing the previous highs,last 8 days are part of the rally from 4786,so its 51 days of rally from 4786.


Nifty made new highs but the breadth was neutral.In last 3 days of rally, breadth has been neutral to marginally +ve.This indicates lack of conviction and caution among the people.This is the 5th Wave of the rally from 4786 that seems to be extended wave.Nifty has tested 20sma 3 times now,so another test of 20sma should likely be a reversal in the trend.

Aug3 update

Nifty moved sideways today with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 1.0 breadth.
2.7th day since the highs of 5475.

Nifty was sideways today and closed marginally in +ve.Yesterday's upmove has not been confirmed by today's move,indicating that this may well be the retracement of the fall from 5475-5349.Though it is also possible that Nifty may just push past the earlier highs of 5475 and descend.The momentum in the rally is not there and any significant upside is therefore difficult.Next 3 days of the week will throw more light on the character of this rally from 5349.
My scenario is for a big push down either from 5200 level or from 5350 levels.

Aug2 update

Nifty bounced back above 5400 with lower volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.2% with 1.7 breadth.
2.6th day since the highs of 5475.


Nifty regained most of the lost ground since the last 5 days.The bounce is approx 80% of the fall of previous 5 days.If the bounce continues for 1-2 days more than it would be an impulsive move likely to move above 5500.But if today's rally fizzles out tomorrow and Nifty closes in -ve and follows it up -ve days for 1-2 days more than today's rally may just be a retracement of the fall of 5 days.I do not considered a blowout upside rally as of now.

Jul30 update

Nifty broke 5350 today towards the end with moderate volumes.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.8 breadth.
2.5th day since the highs of 5475.
3.1st weekly down of more than 1% since the start of the rally from 4786.

Nifty came down during the last 1 hour.This week was down week,with only small retracements of the fall on 2 days.Nifty broke the previous days low on each day of this week.The breadth was -ve but not too -ve on any day of the week.Also price action is limited to within 1% till now.This all indicates that -ve momentum is there but there is no capitulation as yet for this fall of 5 days.I expect this fall to first take rest around 5100-5150-5200 zone.The Journey after that could be sharp and swift.
My scenarios say that either Nifty goes to the 5100 by next week and bounces to highs/new highs for 2 weeks and then reverses for the big down OR
Nifty may make a big cut next week,or the week after next ie this leg of fall itself could lead to big cut.
These two are the likely scenarios that I foresee,But Nifty's price action and momentum will show us What Nifty may actually be trying to do.

Jul29 update

Nifty moved sideways in a narrow range today with neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.4th day since the highs of 5475.

Nifty was in sideways today.Since last 15 days Nifty is in 5350-5450 trading range.If the 5 waves of 43 day rally from 4786 are complete,Nifty should cut down to ~5150 levels in next few days.Momentum at 5150 will decide the further move on the downside for the Nifty.If Nifty has 1 more leg up left in this rally,then I expect Nifty to do that in next 2-3 days.

Jul28 update

Nifty moved down below 5400 today with higher volumes.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.6 breadth.
2.3rd down day after 43 days of rally from 4786.

Nifty broke the 5400 levels today and closed below it.Nifty has corrected about 1% on closing basis in 3 days.Either Nifty has started its downward move or it may still have one more leg up.Break of 5350 should likely take Nifty to 5150-5200 levels immediately as that is a strong support area.Next few days of price action should give more clarity of the possibilities of move ahead.

Jul27 update

Nifty was in sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.2nd day since the 43 days rally(upto 5475).

Nifty was in 5400-5450 range today but the breadth at closing was -ve.Breadth since last few days is -ve even with positive moves indicating exhaustion of the rally from 4786.Two consecutive -ve closing days with decent price action would confirm a reversal.Though Nifty can still surge higher in this rally till about 5500 levels.I look forwards to the two scenarios indicated before.

Jul26 update

Nifty moved down today with -ve breadth and moderate volumes.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.40 breadth.
2.Nifty may have completed its rally from 4786 in 43 days(till friday).In that case today is the 1st day of the downturn.

Nifty moved down today and may have reversed its rally from 4786 lows.I have two scenarios now,that may have been mentioned before also.
Scenario1 is that Nifty may be forming a diagonal triangle in the 5th Wave on weekly.5th Wave started from 4675(feb6th) and so the current wave may be the3rd of the triangle to be followed by wave4 and wave5 which should be swift downturn(not breaking the previous lows and then sharp reversal making new highs above 5475.
Scenario2 is that Nifty may have formed a medium term top here and it will crash down to 4500 or below levels in the next few days.
I expect that the next few days are likely to be down,and the intensity of the downturn and a bounce(if any) will determine whether scenario1 or scenario2 is in work.In both the scenarios levels of 5000-5100 should be there in the coming days.

Jul23 update

Nifty followed up yesterdays gain with a new high at open but moved sideways after that with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 0.53 breadth.
2.43rd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty moved up further today but breadth was quite -ve.The upside momentum may have exhausted looking at the breadth today.Nifty can have a correction any time now.The extent of the correction will tell whether Nifty has made the final top and reversed or not.Any correction below last closing low of 5368, I would consider as an indicator of Nifty having reversed its rally from 4786.

Jul22 update

Nifty moved up above 5400 today with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.0 breadth.
2.42nd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty broke its narrow range today(on closing basis) and closed well above 5400 but the breadth was barely +ve.Today was the 13th day of the wave5(5233(2nd july) - ?).I expect Nifty to make a new high above 5453 in 1-2 days and may be close above it for the Wave5 peak and then reverse.I expect this peak to be the bull market peak of the last 16 months+.

Jul21 update

Nifty reversed yesterdays loss and closed just shy of 5400 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.2 breadth.
2.41st day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty has and inside day, moving within previous days range.Nifty is in tight range of 5350-5450 for last 8 days, so range break is expected now.If there is a breakout, I expect Nifty to close above 5453 levels before reversing.But I expect Nifty to breakdown from here.Breakdown has 2 scenarios as has been listed in yesterdays post.For the crash scenario to happen,some sudden event has to happen to make the markets go into tailspin.

Event update- monsoon onset with very heavy rains

Monsoon struck Delhi in first week of July.Initial monsoon rains were very heavy causing widespread loss of lives as well matter.Monsoon is normal but the intensity of rain in the first spell was quite high.But even with heavy rains,the lowest temp in Delhi did not breach the lowest recorded on June8.

Jul20 update

Nifty broke the 6 day range today with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.40th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.5 days since the closing highs of 5400.

Nifty drifted down today during closing hour.If the downside continues for next 1-2 days, then Nifty may be headed for sub 5000 levels by next week.Besides the crash scenario for the bearish possibilty,I have one more scenario that I think also aligns with the natural indicators.
Scenario1 is that Nifty crashes down to 4000-4300 levels before giving a sustainable bounce and then again goes down to 3500-3700 levels.In this case, the first 10-12 days after a high ,Nifty should breach the earlier lows of 4786 and go possibly lower towards 4500/4600 levels in first downswing.
Scenario2 is that Nifty is undergoing 5 waves in the 5th weekly wave that started from Feb6th.ie Currently Nifty is in wave3 of Wave5 to be followed by Wave4 and Wave5 with possible targets for Wave5 of Wave5 5500+.This case will become active if Nifty's reversal from 5453(wave3) does not breach the previous intraday/weekly lows of 4786/4931 and then bounces back.

Jul19 update

Nifty moved sideways today with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.9 breadth.
2.39th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty is in tight range of 5350-5450 since last 6 days.Breakout above previous highs of 5399 has not exhibited any momentum.Nifty's Wave5 continues.Whether Wave5 is extending or Nifty is in topping formation cannot be said.Given the momentum,any breakout on upside is expected to fizzle out soon and any breakdown should be sharp and swift given the Optimisim that exists which will result in Buy on dips since that would be a first breakdown of the 16th month bull market.

Jul16 update

Nifty was in sideways move today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.3 breadth.
2.38th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty is moving sideways since the last 4 days.I expect a thrust on the upside/downside.Upside thrust should be short lived and turn around in few days ,while downside thrust should pick up momentum for Nifty to go down.The coming week could be a decisive week for the turn in Nifty.I expect that the first 10-12 days of downside thrust should see the big fall in Nifty.SO any downside movement below 5300 will be critical.

Jul15 update

Nifty moved sideways today with lighter volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.37th day of rally from lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty moved in a narrow range today and closed in the red.Today was 2nd consecutive down day.If Nifty does not take out the closing highs of 5400 tomorrow and closed in the red,I would expect that Wave5 is over and Nifty may have started its down journey.But if Nifty closes above 5400 tomorrow,then it could spend another few days trying to form a Top.

Jul14 update

Nifty moved past 5450 at open but gave up its gain at the end.Volumes were higher and breadth was -ve.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.67 breadth.
2.36th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty made a new high above 5450 today.Pullback in Nifty happened in the last 30 min.Nifty could move sideways/correct for next 1-2 days and then either make a last upmove or begin its downslide.If Nifty moves up after sideways move , I expect that move to last for 1-2 days only.Any close below 5300 should be a warning sign of weakness and close below 5250 be taken as a signal for onset of downturn.

Jul13 update

Nifty inches upwards in a sideways move today with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.4 breadth.
2.35th day of rally since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty's Wave5 looks like in a topping formation.4th consecutive day of upmove.Nifty may exhibit volatility now between 5250 and 5400/5450 before breaking down.

Jul12 update

Nifty moved up further crossing the previous highs of 5399 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.2 breadth.
2.34th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).


Nifty extended its upmove and crossed 5400 today.Breadth weakened today indicating the rally is ready for correction/pause.Wave5 is continuing right now,so any weakness below 5250/5200 should confirm the start of downturn.Today was 3rd consecutive day of upmove and according to character of previous rallies in this 34 days upmove,rallies have not taken any break.I expect the current Wave5 to continue with a small pause/OR without pause, but any close below 5300 should be an early signal of end of wave5.
Signal of End of Wave5 should be a point to go short.

Jul9 update

Nifty moved up further with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.4 breadth.
2.33 days of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty extended yesterdays gain and confirming Wave5 is in progress.Wave5 can of ~300 points equal to Wave1(311) since Wave3(400) was twice that of Wave1 in time duration ,so Wave5 should be equal to wave1 in time/distance.2 days of Wave5 have been completed.Also Nifty has not yet scaled the Wave3 high of 5366 since 14 days.This to me is an indicator of the weakening of the rally into Wave5.I expect any signs of weakness hereon to be the likely top of this rally.I expect July monthly closing to be significantly below the June closing.

Jul8 update

Nifty bounced up today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.65 breadth.
2.32nd day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.13 days since the high of 5366.

Nifty rallied up today but gave up some of its gains towards the end.Todays move could be the Wave5.Today being the first day of the Wave5, price action and breadth indicate weak momentum.If this indeed is Wave5 ,then Nifty should crawl upwards towards 5350-5400 levels in next 2-3-4 days.The weakening breadth only indicate that there is limited upmove ahead.Look for further weakness in breadth with rising price action to indicate of a reversal ahead.

Jul7 update

Nifty once again reversed its previous days gain with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.66 breadth.
2.31st day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty reversed yesterdays gain,thus staying in the 5200-5370 range since about 15+ days.If the Nifty has made a top , then the downside momentum should have gained strength in 12 days.But downside momentum is not there in Nifty.And on the upside Nifty is making lower highs.This can be a Wave4 correction,that is usually shallow.and Nifty may be forming a triangle pattern in wave4.If so then 2-3 days of consecutive upmove should confirm Wave5.Again I expect if wave5 is going to be there,it should not be more than 3-4 days.

Jul6 update

Nifty bounced back today with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.4 breadth.
2.30th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty bounced back today.Tomorrow's confirmation is needed inorder to take it as an upmove.Today being the first day of upmove,breadth as well as volumes were weak indicating lack of strength.I expect this bounce/upmove to last for 3-4 days only.So Nifty's close below 5235 will be a signal of an upcoming downfall.I expect this week or next week ,we may begin a downfall, if not already started.First 8-10 days of downfall would be critical,as we can see big fall in the first 10 days.So have to be cautious on each days move and look out for signs of weakness on further upmove.

Jul5 update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range with very thin volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by .04% with 1.1 breadth.
2.29th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty moved sideways inside previous days range with very low volumes.Today was 10th day since the high of 5366 was hit.Though the number of days ie 10 since the high indicate that high is in place but downward price action is limited to 3% from top(5210).Also Nifty has been resisted 3 times above 5300 .All this indicates to me that Nifty can make an attempt to go above 5300/5366 again, but it shud be a weak one.So I expect Nifty to either spiral down or make another weak attempt at 5300-5400 zone before turning down.Today was 29th day from the lows of 4786,so I expect that Nifty if it goes up may not spend more than 3-4 days up.

Jul2 update

Nifty had a sideway day though it broke yesterdays low with lighter volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.75 breadth.
2.28th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.9th day since the high of 5366.

Nifty moved sideways but broke yesterdays low.Nifty has closed below the 4786-4967 trendline for 2 days.This along with the fact that the high of 5366 has not been taken out for 9 days,implies that the rally may be over.I expect Nifty to fall to around 5150 and give a suckers bounce to around 5300 before falling down to newer lows below 4786.The coming few weeks till September 15 are going to see lot of volatile action and may provide great opportunity for shorting.So Be extra careful.

Jul1 update

Nifty again reversed yesterdays gain(about 80%) with lower volumes and slightly -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.77 breadth.
2.27th day since the 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).

Nifty flipped again for the 4th day,putting a doubt on the Wave4/Wave5 count.Today was the 8th day since the high of 5366 was hit.If that previous high of 5366 is not captured in 2 days(by monday,I would expect Nifty's rally from 4786 is done and Nifty is headed lower towards 4700-4800 levels.Tomorrow is weekly closing and a -ve closing (if it is @1% -ve) will imply loss of momentum in Nifty rally.
5 impulsive waves have been completed on weekly and monthly charts and the June monthly closing(5312) looks like a double top after a 5th wave on monthly charts.If this is the case expect July monthly closing to be significantly lower than June's.

Jun30 update

Nifty gapped down and bounced from there to close above 5300 with higher volumes and slightly +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.4 breadth.
2.26th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty was doing an ABC correction over the last 6 days.Todays rally should be the start of Wave5 from 5210.Wave 5 is 110 points till today.Though Wave5 can go to 5500+ but I expect Wave5 to remain below 5400 as above 5500 ,its easy to spot the terminal point.But if wave5 extends then Nifty can possibly go to 5500+. Todays monthly closing made a new monthly high(34 points above previous April high of 5278).Completion of Wave5 ,I expect can see the start of the C leg of the Bear market.

Jun29 update

Nifty reversed all of yesterdays gain and closed below the lows with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.44 breadth.
2.25th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty dropped big today and broke and closed below fridays swing low of 5259.Nifty touched the trendline from 4786 and closed just above it.Now is a critical point,if Nifty stages a bounce from here it will be Wave5 with possible targets above 5400.But if Nifty continues its downmove,it will cut the trendline in a day or two and there could be violent big fall to next major support at 4700-4800.Next 3 days of the week will be very interesting to gauge the next big move of the Nifty.

Jun28 update

Nifty bounced up today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth and closed reversed about 80% of the fall of 4 days.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.3% with 2.1 breadth.
2.24th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).

Nifty bounced strongly today without going into -ve territory indicating that the correction of last 4 days is over.Nifty's upward momentum as pointed to by the breadth is not strong enough to propel it significantly higher.This will be the 3rd rally of this upmove from 4786 lows.Either this should be the last rally or its B of wave4 to be followed by wave5.Further movement of nifty should give clue about the character of this rally.The last 2 rallies have been of 43 days(nov-Jan) and 40 days(Feb-Apr) and the last downturn was of 33 days.I expect the current rally to maximum go for about 40 days and probably for ~ 30 days.

Jun25 update

Nifty moved down below 5300 today with increased volumes and -ve breadth.IMportant points for today.

1.Nifty down by 1% with 0.55 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 4786 and 4th down day since the high of 5366.

Nifty closed well below 5300 levels but still had a marginally +ve weekly closing.Last 4 days of downturn is of weak to moderate momentum and should have ended or may take another 1-2 days.We have important support at 5150-5200 levels.Nifty should likely take support around these levels and give a bounce.The quality of the bounce will determine the next move, up or down.On the downside I expect to see levels of 5000-5100 levels by next weekly closing if Nifty is going for a cut of 1000+ points.
As per the observation,on 1st big cut after a bull market Nifty cuts down to 70-80% of the fall in 6-10 days from the peak.And today was the 4th day after the high of 5366.

Jun24 update

Nifty moved sideways, though it broke the previous day low by 4 points.Important points for the day.

1.Nifty closes flat ,down by .05% with 1.1 breadth.
2.22nd day since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty has closed 4 days within 1% range.This is likely a topping pattern but it could also be a pause/consolidation of an extended rally's wave.If this is a topping pattern,then Nifty should drift down to 5100-5150 levels in next 2-3 days and moved sideways there before making the next cut down.Else Nifty should move up beyond 5400 ,undergo correction to about 5200-5250 and again bounce back to 5400+ for the last leg of this rally from 4786.

Jun23 update

Nifty moved sideways today extending the intraday lows from yesterday.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.21st day since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).


Nifty's sideway movement confirms that the leg from 4967 has ended and correction of this leg(or the entire rally from 4786?)is underway.If Nifty stays above 5300 on closing basis for another 1-2 days,this would be a potential topping pattern of the rally from 4786.With todays closing Nifty after rallying for 9 days is within a short range since last 3 days.The possibility of another leg up is there and for that I expect Nifty to correct to 5200-5250 before again going upwards of 5300+.

Jun22 Update

Nifty drifted down today with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.7 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).

Nifty moved sideways today with -ve bias and closed towards the low of the day.Another 1-2 days of action is needed to confirm that this leg of rally from 4967 has ended.
My possible scenarios as said earlier are -i)Nifty will have one more leg up after a correction.Correction should likely be not a deep one and stay above 5100-5150.
ii)Nifty's correction now is a deep cut over the next 2-3 weeks with possible target in the range of 4100-4500.This weekly closing should give more data to make a better estimate.

Jun21 update

Nifty surged towards its yearly high with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty up by 1.75% with 2.45 breadth.
2.19th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
3.Nifty has retraced 95% of the fall in 57% time.

Nifty's rally continues for the 9th day without any significant daily correction.Nifty likely to take out 5400 within 1-2 days.Though the momentum of the rise is fast but the volumes and breadth are moderate only.This can well be the last rally of the bull market trying to suck in people.Volumes and breadth only indicate lack of conviction on the part of people towards the rally.Of the probable scenarios I look forward to now-
i)Nifty to move sideways between 5000-5500/5600 for next few weeks before reversing.
ii)Nifty to reverse from these 5300-5400-5500 levels and makes a big cut within 8-10 trading sessions after reversing,as it really does on the first big cut after a massive bull run.This would be difficult to trade because 5-6% correction is normal ,so any big cut happening immediately after 5-6% can happen in a matter of 2-3 days.
Look out for other indicators like-$index,S&P500,and European indices for further clues.