Jul26 update

Nifty moved down today with -ve breadth and moderate volumes.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.40 breadth.
2.Nifty may have completed its rally from 4786 in 43 days(till friday).In that case today is the 1st day of the downturn.

Nifty moved down today and may have reversed its rally from 4786 lows.I have two scenarios now,that may have been mentioned before also.
Scenario1 is that Nifty may be forming a diagonal triangle in the 5th Wave on weekly.5th Wave started from 4675(feb6th) and so the current wave may be the3rd of the triangle to be followed by wave4 and wave5 which should be swift downturn(not breaking the previous lows and then sharp reversal making new highs above 5475.
Scenario2 is that Nifty may have formed a medium term top here and it will crash down to 4500 or below levels in the next few days.
I expect that the next few days are likely to be down,and the intensity of the downturn and a bounce(if any) will determine whether scenario1 or scenario2 is in work.In both the scenarios levels of 5000-5100 should be there in the coming days.