mar31 update

Nifty followed yesterdays downmove by another 13 points.Breadth was +ve with moderate volumes.2 consecutive days of downside.Let's see how this fans out over next few days.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 1.2 breadth.
2.2 consecutive down day with moderate volumes.
3.Todays March monthly closing implies that Nifty is in wave5 monthly(uptrend) with potential targets ~5400(60% of wave3= 792x 0.6= 500-> 4882+500= 5382)on monthly closing basis.

If this is Wave2 weekly, then we should see a big cut to 5000-5100 by Monday/Tuesday.
And Nifty's Wave2 weekly closing low should go to about 5150-5200.
If this is Wave5 daily, then Nifty should bounce in next 2-3 days to ~5350-5400 levels, before starting with Wave2 weekly down wave.

Mar30 update

Nifty saw a small selloff during second half of trade.Breadth though was positive and volumes were moderate.Important points for today.

1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 1.6 breadth.
2.Closed below 5EMA(3rd time since beginning of the rally from feb6 after an upmove).

Whether its just a correction in the Wave5 daily(upmove) or beginning of Wave2 weekly down is to be seen over next 2-3 days.
Looking at $index , this could be Wave2 weekly, since $index is showing signs of resurgence since middle of march and if it makes further move in its uptrend(towards 83+) , there should be a crack in stock market ,but may be short lived.

mar29 update

Nifty made a new 52 week high today but with low volumes and slow movement.Wave5 daily is continuing as of now.Breadth again was weak.
Important points for today.

1. Nifty upmove of 0.4% with 0.55 breadth.
2. 34th day of rally from Feb6th.
3. Wave5 daily in action, today being its 4th day.

Nifty is in Wave5 daily, and that is looking weak.So we expect a correction of this 650 point rally anytime soon.This correction should be Wave2 on weekly.Let us wait and see how Nifty reacts in coming days.

event update - hot march

The month of March is turning out to be very hot(temp ~ 40C).Extreme hot weather at the very beginning of summer!.
Extreme hot conditions, I have observed are indicative of rising trends in stocks ahead.Let us see whether we really see a fast paced breakout rally in April/May.

mar26 update

Nifty moved in a very narrow range of about 25 points.Breadth was -ve and volumes on low- moderate.Since Nifty too out 5262 high of last week, so days of this week should add to the rally from feb6 ie 33 days of the rally till now.

Important points for today

1. Nifty upmove of 0.4% with 0.75 breadth.
2. 33 days of rally since feb6.
3. Wave 5 daily going on with weak breadth and price action.Reversal expected anytime now.
4. 7th consecutive up week.

Wave 5 daily is going since 3 days, but its weak.So Expect Wave2 weekly to begin soon(maybe from monday).Nifty can form a base @5100-5200 on weekly basis inorder to move higher towards 5500+.Let us see correction/consolidation unfolds now over next 2-3 weeks.

mar25 update

Nifty made an upmove on expiry day, though weak in breadth and not much strength on volumes.So this upmove indicates that the fall on monday was Wave4 on daily and we are in Wave5 daily.
Important points for today.

1. Nifty upmove of 0.7% with 0.75 breadth.
2. 6th day of closing within 5200-5300.

Since the upmove of 2 days is weak in strength, so this upmove is expected to move ~5300 or so only.There should be Wave2 weekly after this , which should retrace part of ~600 points rally.(4675- ?)

event update - chile earthquake

Earthquake in Chile with related Tsunami warnings in japan and other areas.
This event was a great natural calamity with serious repercussions but did not result in as serious damage as was perceived.the event happened on feb27,2010.
Let us see what similar event could be there in stock market or in the world economy.

mar23 update

Nifty moved in an inside range today.Wave4 daily or Wave2 weekly is not clear as yet.If nifty goes down to ~5150-5200 and then bounces back to ~5300-5350 , then its a wave4 followed by wave5.For weekly wave2 , Nifty will keep going down to about 5000-5100 levels before bouncing back to 5300+.

Important points for today.

1. Nifty upmove of 0.4% with 1.0 breadth.
2. Inside day.(Means the previous trend ie down should continue).

Here Nifty may be forming a base ~5200 to go above 5200 in a decisive way.If that is so, Nifty can spend 2-4 weeks ~5200 before giving a big breakout.

mar22 update

Nifty retraces to below 5200 levels.This retracement is either wave4 on daily charts or Wave2 on weekly.More fall expected if it is wave2 weekly correction and it should then last for 8-10 days with correction of ~250-300 points(50%).
Important points for today.

1.Nifty down about 1.1% with 0.4 breadth.
2.Volumes were light(OR not strong) indicating downfall is moderate.
3.Biggest fall(1.1% closing basis) since the rally began on feb6th.

It looks more likely to me at this point that this is a weekly Wave2.In such a scenario, I anticipate Wave3 to begin sometime in 1st/2nd week of April(5-9).

Incase its a Wave4 daily , then Nifty should quickly bounce back to ~5300 levels before starting its retracement towards 5000-5100 levels as Wave2 weekly.

Mar19 update

Again a narrow range session.Nifty extending its high by 9 points from yesterday.Breadth was 1.0 with volumes being down than previous two days.Since 5300 is the earlier high, Chance of correction from here are high.
Important points for today.

1. Nifty upmove by 0.3% with 1.0 breadth.
2. 29th day of rally from feb6th.

Correction from here will unfold and throw more light on the wave counts of daily charts.My view is that 5 waves on hourly chart are done, and this is Wave3 on daily charts to be followed by wave4 and wave5 ahead.

mar18 update

Another narrow range session.The much awaited correction is getting delayed as everyone expects it.Nifty moved in ~ 40 points range with -ve breadth.
Important points for today.

1. Nifty up 0.3% with .85 breadth.
2. 28th day of rally from feb6.

I anticipate correction to happen on Monday-22/3.The move after correction is difficult to say.
This will be the sixth straight week of up closing.This kind of movement after a 10 month rally should end up in violent move in up/down direction.

If Nifty goes ~5100 and then moves up 5300+ , I would consider that as Wave 5 on daily chart.

mar17 update

Follow up on yesterday's rally.In a classical case, today's rally had price movement but with -ve breadth, indicating the rally in short term has run its course.
Important points for today.

1. Nifty upmove of 0.7% with 0.8 breadth.
2. 5th of 5th on hourly chart underway and may have ended or nearing end.
3. On daily chart(not clear yet), either Wave3 has ended or there is some other wave
count structure that is not yet clear!
4. Today was 27th day of the rally from feb6.

If Wave 3(daily chart) has ended, we should see correction upto about 5000-5100(wave4 daily chart) levels and then 5300+(Wave 5 daily chart) on Nifty.

mar16 update

Nifty broke out of the narrow range it was stuck in for last 6 days.Today was the 26th day of rally from feb6th.This move appears to be the 5th of 5th on hourly charts.As mentioned few days before, this could be the climax move before we get any correction of 3-4% on daily basis.Wave count on daily chart becomes little confusing now.
Important points for today.

1. 1.4% upmove with low volumes.
2. A/D ratio was 2.1 ,ie not showing strength on upmove.

My likely scenario over next 2-3 months as of now.

4900+ => 5300+ => 4000.

mar15 update

Nifty still in the range of 5100-5150.Today was the 6th day in this range.
Important points for today.

1. Falt closing(-8 points) with 0.38 adv/decline ratio.
2. 25th day of rally from 4718(feb6 onwards).
3. On daily charts, wave4 may be unfolding now to about 4950-5000 levels.
4.Weekly chart shows a-b-c correction(wave4) from Oct17-feb5.
wave4 => A- 5141->4711
B- 4711- > 5252
C- 5252- > 4757
So weekly Wave 5 here can take Nifty to about 50-60% of wave3(650 = 0.6*(5141-4003))ie ~ 5400.

March12 update

A tepid session , though the late surge yesterday and the global cues, Nifty could have attempted 5150-5200 range.Breadth, volume, price movement are showing signs of topping.
Important points for today:
1.Flat closing ,+4 points with 0.5 breadth.
2.24th day of the upmove that started from Feb6th,with no significant correction of > 2-3% on daily basis.
3. On hourly chart , completed 5 waves or the 5th may be continuing!
4. Not clear which of the 3 options listed before looks more likely.More action needs to be seen.

mar11 update

Todays closing at 5133 is higher than 5124 on monday 8/3/10.
Since the price movement(+32 points),volume(12.7k) and the breadth(472/860) show topping formation only, so this move should be part of top formation.
Another 1-2 days of such moves could happen , that can take nifty ~5200.
Such moves are usually climax moves before the violent move in the opposite direction.

mar10 update

Nifty Appears to be making a short term top.5147 was the high Nifty touched on 8/3/10 .Minimum correction expected of around 3-4% from top as well on closing basis.This Rally lasted for 20-22 days, so the coming downturn should be around 5-13 days long.
Possible options.
1.Nifty goes to 4800 and resumes its rally upwards, targetting 5300-5600.
2.Nifty goes to 4500-4700, and uptrend resumes targetting 5300-5600.
3.Nifty goes below 4500 to ~ 4000-4200 levels.