Monday, March 22, 2010

mar22 update

Nifty retraces to below 5200 levels.This retracement is either wave4 on daily charts or Wave2 on weekly.More fall expected if it is wave2 weekly correction and it should then last for 8-10 days with correction of ~250-300 points(50%).
Important points for today.

1.Nifty down about 1.1% with 0.4 breadth.
2.Volumes were light(OR not strong) indicating downfall is moderate.
3.Biggest fall(1.1% closing basis) since the rally began on feb6th.

It looks more likely to me at this point that this is a weekly Wave2.In such a scenario, I anticipate Wave3 to begin sometime in 1st/2nd week of April(5-9).

Incase its a Wave4 daily , then Nifty should quickly bounce back to ~5300 levels before starting its retracement towards 5000-5100 levels as Wave2 weekly.

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