Nifty continued with its upmove with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 1.4 breadth.
2.4th day of rally from 4786 lows.
Nifty's rally entered into its 4th consecutive day of upmove.Though its was sideways consolidation today,but Nifty ended near the days high towards the end.Next significant resistance comes in around 5150-5200 levels.That is the level to look for a pause or some correction in the Nifty.Right now It looks to me that Nifty will atleast test 5400 levels in the coming weeks before deciding its next move.My favoured scenario now is that Nifty to test 5400-5600 levels by around mid July before heading down towards 4000 levels.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
May28 Update
Nifty continued with its bounce from lows for 3rd day with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.3% with 2.86 breadth.
2.3rd day of rally after 33 days down.
Nifty was up for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty has bounced nearly 47% of its 614 point downfall from 5399-4786.Given the strong momentum in Nifty with +ve breadth,I expect Nifty to cross 5200 within next few days and try to attempt 5400 after that.
My scenario is for Nifty to breach 5400 level and then do a mini correction,only to rebound to above 5500 levels and then enter bear market with fall upto ~ 4000 levels.
1.Nifty up by 1.3% with 2.86 breadth.
2.3rd day of rally after 33 days down.
Nifty was up for 3rd consecutive day.Nifty has bounced nearly 47% of its 614 point downfall from 5399-4786.Given the strong momentum in Nifty with +ve breadth,I expect Nifty to cross 5200 within next few days and try to attempt 5400 after that.
My scenario is for Nifty to breach 5400 level and then do a mini correction,only to rebound to above 5500 levels and then enter bear market with fall upto ~ 4000 levels.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
May27 update
Nifty extended its rally to beyond 5000 levels with +ve breadth.Importnat points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 1.7% with 1.6 breadth.
2.2nd day of rally after 33 days downturn.
Today was the second consecutive day of rally and Nifty is about 4% up from closing lows and about 5% from intraday lows.I suppose Nifty has made a bottom at 4786 now and started the rally .Next significant resistances are at 5200 and then 5400.Nifty has maintained its higher lows(@4786),so there is a chance that Nifty will make a new high also.This correction was the 4th correction since the beginning of this rally from March09.So next correction will have a higher probability of being a correction of the entire rally.
1.Nifty moved up by 1.7% with 1.6 breadth.
2.2nd day of rally after 33 days downturn.
Today was the second consecutive day of rally and Nifty is about 4% up from closing lows and about 5% from intraday lows.I suppose Nifty has made a bottom at 4786 now and started the rally .Next significant resistances are at 5200 and then 5400.Nifty has maintained its higher lows(@4786),so there is a chance that Nifty will make a new high also.This correction was the 4th correction since the beginning of this rally from March09.So next correction will have a higher probability of being a correction of the entire rally.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
May26 update
Nifty rebounded today with a gap up opening and went further up during the day with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.
1.Nifty up by 2.3% with 2.65 breadth.
2.Assuming downturn to have ended yesterday after 33 days,today was 1st day of upmove..
Nifty's today upmove signals a short term reversal,this upmove if crosses 5050 on closing basis will confirm the downtrend has ended.Assuming the upmove has started today after 33 days of downturn,I expect two scenarios from here.First is that the downleg was Wave2 of the upmove that started on Feb6th and this upmove will be the Wave3 to be further followed by Wave4 and Wave5.
The second scenario is that we are in the process of top formation and the downturn was after Wave5 completed at 5399.So the new upmove that started today could go to about 5400(+- 100 points) having another attempt at the top to exhaust the excess buyers before turning down again.
From psychological perspective,I expect that there should be a fast leg of upmove before we correct down to 4000 levels.So if we have about 10-15 days of fast upmove , that could be the setup for a big correction.There could be other ways also that Nifty may setup its downfall.
1.Nifty up by 2.3% with 2.65 breadth.
2.Assuming downturn to have ended yesterday after 33 days,today was 1st day of upmove..
Nifty's today upmove signals a short term reversal,this upmove if crosses 5050 on closing basis will confirm the downtrend has ended.Assuming the upmove has started today after 33 days of downturn,I expect two scenarios from here.First is that the downleg was Wave2 of the upmove that started on Feb6th and this upmove will be the Wave3 to be further followed by Wave4 and Wave5.
The second scenario is that we are in the process of top formation and the downturn was after Wave5 completed at 5399.So the new upmove that started today could go to about 5400(+- 100 points) having another attempt at the top to exhaust the excess buyers before turning down again.
From psychological perspective,I expect that there should be a fast leg of upmove before we correct down to 4000 levels.So if we have about 10-15 days of fast upmove , that could be the setup for a big correction.There could be other ways also that Nifty may setup its downfall.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
May25 update
Nifty went down today with moderate to low volumes and very -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 2.8% with 0.12 breadth.
2.33rd day of downturn from 5399(7th April high).
Todays selloff made a low that is 56 points below previous low of 4842.-ve breadth of 0.12 is a sign of nearing capitulation.Nifty is going down gradually and not in a sharp intense manner, that everyone is expecting.No of days of downfall,Oscillators and downside momentum to me point towards near the end of downturn.
My observation is that Nifty is taking out the previous swing lows by 50-60 points and then taking a break of 1-2 days.This is continuing for last few weeks.This is not a typical bear downturn.So I expect Nifty to make a move up again and then position itself for a big leg down.Though if somehow Nifty can gain momentum now , then I can expect a move to 4000 levels in this leg.
1.Nifty down by 2.8% with 0.12 breadth.
2.33rd day of downturn from 5399(7th April high).
Todays selloff made a low that is 56 points below previous low of 4842.-ve breadth of 0.12 is a sign of nearing capitulation.Nifty is going down gradually and not in a sharp intense manner, that everyone is expecting.No of days of downfall,Oscillators and downside momentum to me point towards near the end of downturn.
My observation is that Nifty is taking out the previous swing lows by 50-60 points and then taking a break of 1-2 days.This is continuing for last few weeks.This is not a typical bear downturn.So I expect Nifty to make a move up again and then position itself for a big leg down.Though if somehow Nifty can gain momentum now , then I can expect a move to 4000 levels in this leg.
Monday, May 24, 2010
May24 Update
Nifty rallied up in the morning and crossed 5000 but later gave all its gains to close marginally in positive towards end.Volumes were low and breadth was positive.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.24 breadth.
2.32nd day of downturn(assuming it be there unless proven otherwise in next few days) after 40 days of rally..
Nifty is stuck in small 50 points closing range of 4900-4950 for last 4 days.This range is likely to be broken downside below 4900.Since the momentum on donwside has not increased any further during last few days and positive divergences are there on the RSI oscillator ,I expect that any downside movement below 4900 will be completion of the downturn unless the move is of very sharp intensity.Also there already are 32 days of downturn after 40 days of rally.Given that this downturn can either be correction or first leg of bear market,so anyways this downturn should not be taking more number of days than the previous rally ie 40 days.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.24 breadth.
2.32nd day of downturn(assuming it be there unless proven otherwise in next few days) after 40 days of rally..
Nifty is stuck in small 50 points closing range of 4900-4950 for last 4 days.This range is likely to be broken downside below 4900.Since the momentum on donwside has not increased any further during last few days and positive divergences are there on the RSI oscillator ,I expect that any downside movement below 4900 will be completion of the downturn unless the move is of very sharp intensity.Also there already are 32 days of downturn after 40 days of rally.Given that this downturn can either be correction or first leg of bear market,so anyways this downturn should not be taking more number of days than the previous rally ie 40 days.
Friday, May 21, 2010
May21 Update
Nifty gapped down but later recovered to close near days high with -ve breadth and increased volumes.
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.33 breadth.
2.31st day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
3.3rd consecutive weekly close below 5Ema.
Nifty recovered nearly all the fall it had at open,that is a bullish sign.The last 2 falls ,Nifty has bounced up on each fall quickly,indicating that the buyers emerge at every low level preventing big downwards push to the Nifty.Also +ve divergences are there in oscillators(RSI).Downward scenario according to me calls for a crash in Nifty while the other scenario says that Nifty may have bottomed out today, for that Nifty should test todays low in next 2-3 days and should not breach it OR breach it by a small margin ~50-60 points and bounce back from there.We could see a really sharp uptrend if Nifty bottoms out around this 4800 levels.
1.Nifty down by 0.4% with 0.33 breadth.
2.31st day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
3.3rd consecutive weekly close below 5Ema.
Nifty recovered nearly all the fall it had at open,that is a bullish sign.The last 2 falls ,Nifty has bounced up on each fall quickly,indicating that the buyers emerge at every low level preventing big downwards push to the Nifty.Also +ve divergences are there in oscillators(RSI).Downward scenario according to me calls for a crash in Nifty while the other scenario says that Nifty may have bottomed out today, for that Nifty should test todays low in next 2-3 days and should not breach it OR breach it by a small margin ~50-60 points and bounce back from there.We could see a really sharp uptrend if Nifty bottoms out around this 4800 levels.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
May20 Update
Nifty moved sideways today, with marginally +ve breadth and moderate volumes.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.30th day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
Nifty's sideways movement ended below daily 5Ema(low ema).Nifty being unable to cross 200DMA intraday spells of weakness for Nifty.5th consecutive day below 5Ema.Conclusion of this move requires sharp and steep fall in next 1-2-3 days, since Nifty is not able to gather strength even after falling 2-5% after each rally.I expect a crash to happen till Tuesday(if it has to happen!).I am ready to go long aggressively if Nifty shows wild move on downside in coming days.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.30th day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
Nifty's sideways movement ended below daily 5Ema(low ema).Nifty being unable to cross 200DMA intraday spells of weakness for Nifty.5th consecutive day below 5Ema.Conclusion of this move requires sharp and steep fall in next 1-2-3 days, since Nifty is not able to gather strength even after falling 2-5% after each rally.I expect a crash to happen till Tuesday(if it has to happen!).I am ready to go long aggressively if Nifty shows wild move on downside in coming days.
event update- Cyclone /heavy rain in south
On May18/19 ,Cyclone named laila hit the south coast with very heavy rain resulting in death of about 12 people.This is an unexpected high intensity event occuring in middle of May in India.It may imply some event in coming weeks.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
May19 update
Nifty had a big sell off today with -ve breadth and increased volumes.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 2.9% with 0.15 breadth.
2.29th day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
3.1st day during last 29 days that Nifty fell by more 100 points(pointing to increased intensity selling).
Nifty broke the 200DMA and closed below it.It was high intensity selling witnessed first time during this downturn.The options I consider now are ,if Nifty bounces back tomorrow and regains 200DMA then the downturn may be end, but if Nifty follows up with another new swing low towards 4800-4700 by tomorrow/Friday, then I expect Nifty to crash down on Monday /Tuesday to 4300-4500 levels.I don't anticipate Nifty going below 4300 during this leg of downturn.
1.Nifty down by 2.9% with 0.15 breadth.
2.29th day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
3.1st day during last 29 days that Nifty fell by more 100 points(pointing to increased intensity selling).
Nifty broke the 200DMA and closed below it.It was high intensity selling witnessed first time during this downturn.The options I consider now are ,if Nifty bounces back tomorrow and regains 200DMA then the downturn may be end, but if Nifty follows up with another new swing low towards 4800-4700 by tomorrow/Friday, then I expect Nifty to crash down on Monday /Tuesday to 4300-4500 levels.I don't anticipate Nifty going below 4300 during this leg of downturn.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
May18 update
Nifty had a choppy day today, started with the downfall and then moved up and settled in between high and low.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.1% with 1.3 breadth.
2.28th day of downturn(assuming that another leg of downfall is due,else this will be first day up.)
Nifty was ranged between 5105-5024 today.Since Nifty Nifty made a low of 4966 yesterday and closed at 5059,so there is a gap of 93 points between closing and lows.This gap I expect will be narrowed soon.This leg of downmove can also likely be the last before the Nifty turns up.Since 28 days of downturn,Nifty's downmove is of moderate intensity,so i dont expect this downmove to become high intensity towards its last leg.I expect another upmove(sharp and swift) before a high intensity downmove to begin.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.1% with 1.3 breadth.
2.28th day of downturn(assuming that another leg of downfall is due,else this will be first day up.)
Nifty was ranged between 5105-5024 today.Since Nifty Nifty made a low of 4966 yesterday and closed at 5059,so there is a gap of 93 points between closing and lows.This gap I expect will be narrowed soon.This leg of downmove can also likely be the last before the Nifty turns up.Since 28 days of downturn,Nifty's downmove is of moderate intensity,so i dont expect this downmove to become high intensity towards its last leg.I expect another upmove(sharp and swift) before a high intensity downmove to begin.
Monday, May 17, 2010
May17 update
Nifty fell down on opening and broke the previous lows by small amount but bounced back from there.Breadth was -ve and volumes were moderate.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.46 breadth.
2.Nifty broke the previous lows of 4984, so todays move was part of downfall from 5399.So today was 27th day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
Todays breach of previous lows , indicate that this may be wave5 of downturn from 5399.Nifty has retraced 435 out of 725 points in 27 days ie 60%.If the downturn is over or nearly over, we could see some consolidation around 4950-5100 levels before a bounce OR we could bounce right away.On the other hand if Nifty is still in downturn,I expect Nifty to continue its fall but with more intensity and sharper falls.
In these 27 days of downturn,Nifty has not fallen by 100 points or more on any day.This only says that downturn is not of sharp intensity.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.46 breadth.
2.Nifty broke the previous lows of 4984, so todays move was part of downfall from 5399.So today was 27th day of downturn from 5399(7th April).
Todays breach of previous lows , indicate that this may be wave5 of downturn from 5399.Nifty has retraced 435 out of 725 points in 27 days ie 60%.If the downturn is over or nearly over, we could see some consolidation around 4950-5100 levels before a bounce OR we could bounce right away.On the other hand if Nifty is still in downturn,I expect Nifty to continue its fall but with more intensity and sharper falls.
In these 27 days of downturn,Nifty has not fallen by 100 points or more on any day.This only says that downturn is not of sharp intensity.
Friday, May 14, 2010
May14 update
Nifty had a late afternoon selloff with -ve breadth and moderate volumes,retracing about 60% of the gains made from lows of 4984.Important points for today
1.Nifty moved down by 1.6% with 0.25 breadth.
2.26th day since the high of 5399 hit on April7th,2010.
The previous swing low of 4984 is also the same as 200DMA for Monday.So if Nifty breaks the low of 4984 on monday, that would be the first time since April2009, when Nifty crossed above it.That could spell weakness and Nifty could rapidly fall towards 4500 (15000 sensex) levels.For the fall scenario,I anticipate Nifty to fall sharply , then bounce and then move down towards down targets hit earlier.
The other scenario is that Nifty either gaps up on monday and starts with its wave3 OR it moves down to around 4900 levels and then starts to move upwards.
1.Nifty moved down by 1.6% with 0.25 breadth.
2.26th day since the high of 5399 hit on April7th,2010.
The previous swing low of 4984 is also the same as 200DMA for Monday.So if Nifty breaks the low of 4984 on monday, that would be the first time since April2009, when Nifty crossed above it.That could spell weakness and Nifty could rapidly fall towards 4500 (15000 sensex) levels.For the fall scenario,I anticipate Nifty to fall sharply , then bounce and then move down towards down targets hit earlier.
The other scenario is that Nifty either gaps up on monday and starts with its wave3 OR it moves down to around 4900 levels and then starts to move upwards.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
May13 update
Nifty moved sideways today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth with small +ve price action.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 1.7 breadth.
2.Nifty's 3rd day closing below the rebound of monday,5193.
Nifty moved sideways today with small price action but with positive breadth.Nifty gave up its very +ve breadth in morning , that is indicative of lack of momentum in this leg of upmove.I expect correction to happen in next 1-3 days.For the correction, if the previous low of 4984 is maintained then this move is likely to be wave2 of the 5 wave impulse.But incase 4984 is broken then we may either be going deep down or we may extend the low to 4800-4900 and start the 5 wave impulse upmove.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 1.7 breadth.
2.Nifty's 3rd day closing below the rebound of monday,5193.
Nifty moved sideways today with small price action but with positive breadth.Nifty gave up its very +ve breadth in morning , that is indicative of lack of momentum in this leg of upmove.I expect correction to happen in next 1-3 days.For the correction, if the previous low of 4984 is maintained then this move is likely to be wave2 of the 5 wave impulse.But incase 4984 is broken then we may either be going deep down or we may extend the low to 4800-4900 and start the 5 wave impulse upmove.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
May12 update
Nifty edged upwards after completing the downside correction with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 0.7 breadth.
2.286th day from Mar9,2009 ie start of bull market rally.
3.Nifty closing below its rebound closing(5193) for second consecutive day.
Nifty's upmove today with -ve breadth indicates that the rebound of monday lacks the upward momentum to take Nifty to new highs.Also Nifty not able to cross its monday closing for two days even after correcting 50% of its rebound rally.Now I would expect that this lessens the probability of a scenario of Nifty moving up in 5 impulsive waves.The scenario now throws up two options.First is that Nifty will complete its Wave5 towards 4800-4900 levels and then move up OR Nifty will crash and break the previous lows of 4500-4600.For this scenario(new lows below 4500) I expect Nifty to make big cut next week.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 0.7 breadth.
2.286th day from Mar9,2009 ie start of bull market rally.
3.Nifty closing below its rebound closing(5193) for second consecutive day.
Nifty's upmove today with -ve breadth indicates that the rebound of monday lacks the upward momentum to take Nifty to new highs.Also Nifty not able to cross its monday closing for two days even after correcting 50% of its rebound rally.Now I would expect that this lessens the probability of a scenario of Nifty moving up in 5 impulsive waves.The scenario now throws up two options.First is that Nifty will complete its Wave5 towards 4800-4900 levels and then move up OR Nifty will crash and break the previous lows of 4500-4600.For this scenario(new lows below 4500) I expect Nifty to make big cut next week.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
May11 update
Nifty corrected some of yesterdays upmove.Breadth was weak and volumes were moderate.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.4 breadth.
2.285th day since mar9,2009 when the bull market began.
Nifty completed 21 days of correction on friday and made a strong rally yesterday.Since yesterdays rally came after the correction and looking at its character, I assume it to be Wave1 of upmove.Todays correction should be wave2 of the upmove and could continue is sideways manner for few more days.
Another scenario is that if 21 days of downmove is taken as Wave1 down(and not a-b-c correction), then rebound rally from 4984 could be considered as Wave2 of the downmove.It's difficult to anticipate next few days now, So next few days of action should throw some light.My anticipation says that cut in Nifty towards 4000-4300 should happen before July15.(it could be may or june or july).This would be a good shorting opportunity ,so needs to be extra cautious on Nifty's action.
1.Nifty down by 1.1% with 0.4 breadth.
2.285th day since mar9,2009 when the bull market began.
Nifty completed 21 days of correction on friday and made a strong rally yesterday.Since yesterdays rally came after the correction and looking at its character, I assume it to be Wave1 of upmove.Todays correction should be wave2 of the upmove and could continue is sideways manner for few more days.
Another scenario is that if 21 days of downmove is taken as Wave1 down(and not a-b-c correction), then rebound rally from 4984 could be considered as Wave2 of the downmove.It's difficult to anticipate next few days now, So next few days of action should throw some light.My anticipation says that cut in Nifty towards 4000-4300 should happen before July15.(it could be may or june or july).This would be a good shorting opportunity ,so needs to be extra cautious on Nifty's action.
Monday, May 10, 2010
May10 update
Nifty rebounded strongly with good volumes and very +ve breadth.It was best day of upmove in many months.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 3.5% with 7.0 breadth.
2.1st day of upmove after 21 days of downturn.
3.284th day since Mar9,2009 when the bull market began.
4.Biggest upmove in Nifty since 14th July 2009.
Today, the Price action was big +ve alongwith with +ve breadth.Such a +ve move indicates 2 scenarios to me.Firstly, Nifty after completing a-b-c correction of 725 point rally is again starting its 5 wave impulse upmove targetting 5300-5550.OR secondly,Nifty has started the dowturn of the ~2800 point rally of last 13months.The fall from 5399 -4984 is Wave1 of this downturn, and Nifty has started with Wave2 right now.In this scenario,Nifty should remain below 5399.
One important thing to take note-After todays big +ve breadth ,I expect Nifty could take atleast 3-4 days to wear out the optimism of today be it any scenario.
1.Nifty moved up by 3.5% with 7.0 breadth.
2.1st day of upmove after 21 days of downturn.
3.284th day since Mar9,2009 when the bull market began.
4.Biggest upmove in Nifty since 14th July 2009.
Today, the Price action was big +ve alongwith with +ve breadth.Such a +ve move indicates 2 scenarios to me.Firstly, Nifty after completing a-b-c correction of 725 point rally is again starting its 5 wave impulse upmove targetting 5300-5550.OR secondly,Nifty has started the dowturn of the ~2800 point rally of last 13months.The fall from 5399 -4984 is Wave1 of this downturn, and Nifty has started with Wave2 right now.In this scenario,Nifty should remain below 5399.
One important thing to take note-After todays big +ve breadth ,I expect Nifty could take atleast 3-4 days to wear out the optimism of today be it any scenario.
Friday, May 7, 2010
May7 update
Nifty continued with its down movement with very -ve breadth and high volumes.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.15 breadth.
2.21st day of downturn from high of 5399.
3.5th consecutive down day(all days in the week were down).
4.-ve price action in the past 21 days has not been more than 2% on any day.(This points to moderate intensity of selling pressure).
Todays -ve movement with 1:7 breadth shows signs of selling capitulation.This -ve breadth indicates that either short term bottom is there OR the bottom should be around the lows of today.The other scenario is that there be a big crash like downside movement in next few days.In 21 days of downmove , Nifty has retraced about 57% of the 725 point rally.If Nifty were to reverse from here next week or there after, it should not go below the 60-70% retracement zone of the entire rally ie above 4900.We should get clues about upmove, if any, by next week in which case the rebound rally can go past 5400 levels.
1.Nifty down by 1.4% with 0.15 breadth.
2.21st day of downturn from high of 5399.
3.5th consecutive down day(all days in the week were down).
4.-ve price action in the past 21 days has not been more than 2% on any day.(This points to moderate intensity of selling pressure).
Todays -ve movement with 1:7 breadth shows signs of selling capitulation.This -ve breadth indicates that either short term bottom is there OR the bottom should be around the lows of today.The other scenario is that there be a big crash like downside movement in next few days.In 21 days of downmove , Nifty has retraced about 57% of the 725 point rally.If Nifty were to reverse from here next week or there after, it should not go below the 60-70% retracement zone of the entire rally ie above 4900.We should get clues about upmove, if any, by next week in which case the rebound rally can go past 5400 levels.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
May6 update
Nifty moved sideways today with little extension of the low's of yesterday.Breadth was neutral to -ve and volumes were moderate.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.85 breadth.
2.60th day of rally from feb6th and 20th day of downturn from 5399.
Nifty extended its low by 17 points and moved up.It was sideways movement day.Nifty has now spent about 1.5 days in the 100 point range.Today being the 4th consecutive down day and below 5ema,Nifty looks like ready to bounce back.This bounce will be Wave5 or WaveB or Wave1 of a new 5 wave impulse is difficult to say.But seeing the weak upside momentum of Nifty since last few weeks/months and the current correction , Nifty may just bounce up only to deceive and then crash down.I expect the bounce to be in the range of 5300-5500.If bounce scenario is not valid , then Nifty should make a cut on the downside in coming 1-2 days towards lower support levels of 4700+.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.85 breadth.
2.60th day of rally from feb6th and 20th day of downturn from 5399.
Nifty extended its low by 17 points and moved up.It was sideways movement day.Nifty has now spent about 1.5 days in the 100 point range.Today being the 4th consecutive down day and below 5ema,Nifty looks like ready to bounce back.This bounce will be Wave5 or WaveB or Wave1 of a new 5 wave impulse is difficult to say.But seeing the weak upside momentum of Nifty since last few weeks/months and the current correction , Nifty may just bounce up only to deceive and then crash down.I expect the bounce to be in the range of 5300-5500.If bounce scenario is not valid , then Nifty should make a cut on the downside in coming 1-2 days towards lower support levels of 4700+.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
May5 update
Nifty continued with its downtrend with a deep cut at open but recovered later on.Breadth was very weak at open but recovered later.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved down by 0.5% with 0.7 breadth.
2.19th day of downtrend from 5399, and 59th day from start of rally on feb6th.
Nifty recovered the fall towards closing.Nifty may have made a short term bottom here and may consolidate around 5100 levels for few days.Nifty close above 5ema will ensure that a short term bottom is in place.As earlier expected,Wave4 option now seems less likely since the cut of last three days does not show the character of Wave4.The cut of last 3 three days with -ve breadth suggests that this downmove is part of correction of 725 point rally or of 2900 point bull market.Weekly close below 5000 OR daily close below 4950 should signal the larger downtrend corresponding to correction of bull market of 13 months.
1.Nifty moved down by 0.5% with 0.7 breadth.
2.19th day of downtrend from 5399, and 59th day from start of rally on feb6th.
Nifty recovered the fall towards closing.Nifty may have made a short term bottom here and may consolidate around 5100 levels for few days.Nifty close above 5ema will ensure that a short term bottom is in place.As earlier expected,Wave4 option now seems less likely since the cut of last three days does not show the character of Wave4.The cut of last 3 three days with -ve breadth suggests that this downmove is part of correction of 725 point rally or of 2900 point bull market.Weekly close below 5000 OR daily close below 4950 should signal the larger downtrend corresponding to correction of bull market of 13 months.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
May4 update
Nifty had a sell off today.Previous low of 5160 was breached with -ve breadth and moderate volumes.
1.Nifty moved down by 1.5% with 0.2 breadth.
2.Since the previous low of 5160 was breached, so this should be part of downmove that started from 5399.So today was 18th day of downturn from 5399 after 40 days of rally from feb6th.
Today's move indicate that either Wave4 (upmove) or WaveA/Wave1 (downmove) may be unfolding.From here ,either Nifty could selloff in a big way or it could find support above/around 5000-5100 levels and go up again as wave5 and then crash down.I am more inclined towards wave4 scenario right now,Since its been 18 days since Nifty hit its peak of 5399/5374.After today,Nifty is down 130 points weekly, so Nifty should be due for a bounce (after some more fall!?) towards end of this week(unless this is big crash)
1.Nifty moved down by 1.5% with 0.2 breadth.
2.Since the previous low of 5160 was breached, so this should be part of downmove that started from 5399.So today was 18th day of downturn from 5399 after 40 days of rally from feb6th.
Today's move indicate that either Wave4 (upmove) or WaveA/Wave1 (downmove) may be unfolding.From here ,either Nifty could selloff in a big way or it could find support above/around 5000-5100 levels and go up again as wave5 and then crash down.I am more inclined towards wave4 scenario right now,Since its been 18 days since Nifty hit its peak of 5399/5374.After today,Nifty is down 130 points weekly, so Nifty should be due for a bounce (after some more fall!?) towards end of this week(unless this is big crash)
Monday, May 3, 2010
May3 update
Nifty moved down today with -ve breadth and low volumes.Nifty is still within its 200 point range of last 1 month.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved down by 1% with 0.55 breadth and low volumes.
2.57th day from the start of rally from feb6th.
Nifty is exhibiting volatility and is lacking upside momentum.Todays downmove though of 1% but was low on volumes.So tomorrow's action is to be seen.Wave count's are hazy as of now.But the number of days of rally indicate that downturn should be near and we should look for Nifty's action for taking a cue about the possible move.Nifty completed 3 months of +ve upmove in Wave5 in April in line with Wave1 and Wave3 monthly.I would raise red flag for all longs here, and look for some more signals to go short aggressively.
1.Nifty moved down by 1% with 0.55 breadth and low volumes.
2.57th day from the start of rally from feb6th.
Nifty is exhibiting volatility and is lacking upside momentum.Todays downmove though of 1% but was low on volumes.So tomorrow's action is to be seen.Wave count's are hazy as of now.But the number of days of rally indicate that downturn should be near and we should look for Nifty's action for taking a cue about the possible move.Nifty completed 3 months of +ve upmove in Wave5 in April in line with Wave1 and Wave3 monthly.I would raise red flag for all longs here, and look for some more signals to go short aggressively.
Apr30 update
Nifty moved up in a narrow range with +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2.Nifty staying in range of 5200-5400 for more than a month now.
Nifty is not doing much for the last more than a month and is in a tight range of 5200-5400.Todays monthly closing was +ve but weekly closing was -ve.On weekly charts Nifty is in 100 point range of 5262-5361 for last 7 weeks.This is either a consolidation for an upsurge, OR Nifty is about move in downmove.On monthly charts,it was 3rd +ve closing and momentum seems to have slowed down,So we can look for some downside here.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2.Nifty staying in range of 5200-5400 for more than a month now.
Nifty is not doing much for the last more than a month and is in a tight range of 5200-5400.Todays monthly closing was +ve but weekly closing was -ve.On weekly charts Nifty is in 100 point range of 5262-5361 for last 7 weeks.This is either a consolidation for an upsurge, OR Nifty is about move in downmove.On monthly charts,it was 3rd +ve closing and momentum seems to have slowed down,So we can look for some downside here.
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