Wednesday, May 12, 2010

May12 update

Nifty edged upwards after completing the downside correction with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty moved up by 0.4% with 0.7 breadth.
2.286th day from Mar9,2009 ie start of bull market rally.
3.Nifty closing below its rebound closing(5193) for second consecutive day.

Nifty's upmove today with -ve breadth indicates that the rebound of monday lacks the upward momentum to take Nifty to new highs.Also Nifty not able to cross its monday closing for two days even after correcting 50% of its rebound rally.Now I would expect that this lessens the probability of a scenario of Nifty moving up in 5 impulsive waves.The scenario now throws up two options.First is that Nifty will complete its Wave5 towards 4800-4900 levels and then move up OR Nifty will crash and break the previous lows of 4500-4600.For this scenario(new lows below 4500) I expect Nifty to make big cut next week.

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