Nifty gapped down and bounced from there to close above 5300 with higher volumes and slightly +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.4 breadth.
2.26th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty was doing an ABC correction over the last 6 days.Todays rally should be the start of Wave5 from 5210.Wave 5 is 110 points till today.Though Wave5 can go to 5500+ but I expect Wave5 to remain below 5400 as above 5500 ,its easy to spot the terminal point.But if wave5 extends then Nifty can possibly go to 5500+. Todays monthly closing made a new monthly high(34 points above previous April high of 5278).Completion of Wave5 ,I expect can see the start of the C leg of the Bear market.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Jun29 update
Nifty reversed all of yesterdays gain and closed below the lows with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.44 breadth.
2.25th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty dropped big today and broke and closed below fridays swing low of 5259.Nifty touched the trendline from 4786 and closed just above it.Now is a critical point,if Nifty stages a bounce from here it will be Wave5 with possible targets above 5400.But if Nifty continues its downmove,it will cut the trendline in a day or two and there could be violent big fall to next major support at 4700-4800.Next 3 days of the week will be very interesting to gauge the next big move of the Nifty.
1.Nifty down by 1.5% with 0.44 breadth.
2.25th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty dropped big today and broke and closed below fridays swing low of 5259.Nifty touched the trendline from 4786 and closed just above it.Now is a critical point,if Nifty stages a bounce from here it will be Wave5 with possible targets above 5400.But if Nifty continues its downmove,it will cut the trendline in a day or two and there could be violent big fall to next major support at 4700-4800.Next 3 days of the week will be very interesting to gauge the next big move of the Nifty.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Jun28 update
Nifty bounced up today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth and closed reversed about 80% of the fall of 4 days.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.3% with 2.1 breadth.
2.24th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
Nifty bounced strongly today without going into -ve territory indicating that the correction of last 4 days is over.Nifty's upward momentum as pointed to by the breadth is not strong enough to propel it significantly higher.This will be the 3rd rally of this upmove from 4786 lows.Either this should be the last rally or its B of wave4 to be followed by wave5.Further movement of nifty should give clue about the character of this rally.The last 2 rallies have been of 43 days(nov-Jan) and 40 days(Feb-Apr) and the last downturn was of 33 days.I expect the current rally to maximum go for about 40 days and probably for ~ 30 days.
1.Nifty up by 1.3% with 2.1 breadth.
2.24th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
Nifty bounced strongly today without going into -ve territory indicating that the correction of last 4 days is over.Nifty's upward momentum as pointed to by the breadth is not strong enough to propel it significantly higher.This will be the 3rd rally of this upmove from 4786 lows.Either this should be the last rally or its B of wave4 to be followed by wave5.Further movement of nifty should give clue about the character of this rally.The last 2 rallies have been of 43 days(nov-Jan) and 40 days(Feb-Apr) and the last downturn was of 33 days.I expect the current rally to maximum go for about 40 days and probably for ~ 30 days.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Jun25 update
Nifty moved down below 5300 today with increased volumes and -ve breadth.IMportant points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1% with 0.55 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 4786 and 4th down day since the high of 5366.
Nifty closed well below 5300 levels but still had a marginally +ve weekly closing.Last 4 days of downturn is of weak to moderate momentum and should have ended or may take another 1-2 days.We have important support at 5150-5200 levels.Nifty should likely take support around these levels and give a bounce.The quality of the bounce will determine the next move, up or down.On the downside I expect to see levels of 5000-5100 levels by next weekly closing if Nifty is going for a cut of 1000+ points.
As per the observation,on 1st big cut after a bull market Nifty cuts down to 70-80% of the fall in 6-10 days from the peak.And today was the 4th day after the high of 5366.
1.Nifty down by 1% with 0.55 breadth.
2.23rd day since the lows of 4786 and 4th down day since the high of 5366.
Nifty closed well below 5300 levels but still had a marginally +ve weekly closing.Last 4 days of downturn is of weak to moderate momentum and should have ended or may take another 1-2 days.We have important support at 5150-5200 levels.Nifty should likely take support around these levels and give a bounce.The quality of the bounce will determine the next move, up or down.On the downside I expect to see levels of 5000-5100 levels by next weekly closing if Nifty is going for a cut of 1000+ points.
As per the observation,on 1st big cut after a bull market Nifty cuts down to 70-80% of the fall in 6-10 days from the peak.And today was the 4th day after the high of 5366.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Jun24 update
Nifty moved sideways, though it broke the previous day low by 4 points.Important points for the day.
1.Nifty closes flat ,down by .05% with 1.1 breadth.
2.22nd day since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty has closed 4 days within 1% range.This is likely a topping pattern but it could also be a pause/consolidation of an extended rally's wave.If this is a topping pattern,then Nifty should drift down to 5100-5150 levels in next 2-3 days and moved sideways there before making the next cut down.Else Nifty should move up beyond 5400 ,undergo correction to about 5200-5250 and again bounce back to 5400+ for the last leg of this rally from 4786.
1.Nifty closes flat ,down by .05% with 1.1 breadth.
2.22nd day since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty has closed 4 days within 1% range.This is likely a topping pattern but it could also be a pause/consolidation of an extended rally's wave.If this is a topping pattern,then Nifty should drift down to 5100-5150 levels in next 2-3 days and moved sideways there before making the next cut down.Else Nifty should move up beyond 5400 ,undergo correction to about 5200-5250 and again bounce back to 5400+ for the last leg of this rally from 4786.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Jun23 update
Nifty moved sideways today extending the intraday lows from yesterday.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.21st day since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty's sideway movement confirms that the leg from 4967 has ended and correction of this leg(or the entire rally from 4786?)is underway.If Nifty stays above 5300 on closing basis for another 1-2 days,this would be a potential topping pattern of the rally from 4786.With todays closing Nifty after rallying for 9 days is within a short range since last 3 days.The possibility of another leg up is there and for that I expect Nifty to correct to 5200-5250 before again going upwards of 5300+.
1.Nifty up by 0.1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.21st day since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty's sideway movement confirms that the leg from 4967 has ended and correction of this leg(or the entire rally from 4786?)is underway.If Nifty stays above 5300 on closing basis for another 1-2 days,this would be a potential topping pattern of the rally from 4786.With todays closing Nifty after rallying for 9 days is within a short range since last 3 days.The possibility of another leg up is there and for that I expect Nifty to correct to 5200-5250 before again going upwards of 5300+.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Jun22 Update
Nifty drifted down today with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.7 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved sideways today with -ve bias and closed towards the low of the day.Another 1-2 days of action is needed to confirm that this leg of rally from 4967 has ended.
My possible scenarios as said earlier are -i)Nifty will have one more leg up after a correction.Correction should likely be not a deep one and stay above 5100-5150.
ii)Nifty's correction now is a deep cut over the next 2-3 weeks with possible target in the range of 4100-4500.This weekly closing should give more data to make a better estimate.
1.Nifty down by 0.7% with 0.7 breadth.
2.20th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved sideways today with -ve bias and closed towards the low of the day.Another 1-2 days of action is needed to confirm that this leg of rally from 4967 has ended.
My possible scenarios as said earlier are -i)Nifty will have one more leg up after a correction.Correction should likely be not a deep one and stay above 5100-5150.
ii)Nifty's correction now is a deep cut over the next 2-3 weeks with possible target in the range of 4100-4500.This weekly closing should give more data to make a better estimate.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Jun21 update
Nifty surged towards its yearly high with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.75% with 2.45 breadth.
2.19th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
3.Nifty has retraced 95% of the fall in 57% time.
Nifty's rally continues for the 9th day without any significant daily correction.Nifty likely to take out 5400 within 1-2 days.Though the momentum of the rise is fast but the volumes and breadth are moderate only.This can well be the last rally of the bull market trying to suck in people.Volumes and breadth only indicate lack of conviction on the part of people towards the rally.Of the probable scenarios I look forward to now-
i)Nifty to move sideways between 5000-5500/5600 for next few weeks before reversing.
ii)Nifty to reverse from these 5300-5400-5500 levels and makes a big cut within 8-10 trading sessions after reversing,as it really does on the first big cut after a massive bull run.This would be difficult to trade because 5-6% correction is normal ,so any big cut happening immediately after 5-6% can happen in a matter of 2-3 days.
Look out for other indicators like-$index,S&P500,and European indices for further clues.
1.Nifty up by 1.75% with 2.45 breadth.
2.19th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
3.Nifty has retraced 95% of the fall in 57% time.
Nifty's rally continues for the 9th day without any significant daily correction.Nifty likely to take out 5400 within 1-2 days.Though the momentum of the rise is fast but the volumes and breadth are moderate only.This can well be the last rally of the bull market trying to suck in people.Volumes and breadth only indicate lack of conviction on the part of people towards the rally.Of the probable scenarios I look forward to now-
i)Nifty to move sideways between 5000-5500/5600 for next few weeks before reversing.
ii)Nifty to reverse from these 5300-5400-5500 levels and makes a big cut within 8-10 trading sessions after reversing,as it really does on the first big cut after a massive bull run.This would be difficult to trade because 5-6% correction is normal ,so any big cut happening immediately after 5-6% can happen in a matter of 2-3 days.
Look out for other indicators like-$index,S&P500,and European indices for further clues.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Jun18 update
Nifty moved sideways today with higher volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.4 breadth.
2.18th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.Nifty crossed 5300 intraday today.
Nifty moved in 5250-5300 range today.With todays -ve closing and weak breadth,Nifty may have started its correction of the 335 point rally from 4967-5302.The important points to look out for would be 60% retracement -5100 and 100%-4967.
Since Nifty has taken 18 days to cover about 85% of the fall,so keeping the momentum,I expect Nifty not to go below 5100 levels in the correction.And in anycase 4967 must be respected.If this level of 4967 gets broken, I would look for a breach of 4500.
My anticipated move on the downside is 5200 (@25june)-4900(2July)- below 4500 after 5th July.On the upside scenario,given the +ve momentum,I expect Nifty to cross previous highs of 5361 next week ie by 25june and above 5400 by 2july.
So any -ve weekly closing next week(25 june) would be an indicator that down move is likely and the upside rally is likely a double top/Wave2/B and a bear trap.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.4 breadth.
2.18th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.Nifty crossed 5300 intraday today.
Nifty moved in 5250-5300 range today.With todays -ve closing and weak breadth,Nifty may have started its correction of the 335 point rally from 4967-5302.The important points to look out for would be 60% retracement -5100 and 100%-4967.
Since Nifty has taken 18 days to cover about 85% of the fall,so keeping the momentum,I expect Nifty not to go below 5100 levels in the correction.And in anycase 4967 must be respected.If this level of 4967 gets broken, I would look for a breach of 4500.
My anticipated move on the downside is 5200 (@25june)-4900(2July)- below 4500 after 5th July.On the upside scenario,given the +ve momentum,I expect Nifty to cross previous highs of 5361 next week ie by 25june and above 5400 by 2july.
So any -ve weekly closing next week(25 june) would be an indicator that down move is likely and the upside rally is likely a double top/Wave2/B and a bear trap.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Event update-cyclone phet and rains
Cyclone Phet struck south/west coast of India causing heavy rainfall and deaths in end of may /early June.In early June max temp in Delhi dropped to significantly low to about 25-26C ,first time in 8-9 years.Also Mumbai/West coast is receiving very heavy rainfall causing many deaths due to it.Though rainfall is not very unusual at this time, but the event should be noted for its high intensity.
Jun17 update
Nifty moved further up towards 5300 with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.1 breadth.
2.17th day of rally since the 4786 lows.
3.7th consecutive up day.(not since March/April 09)
4.Nifty broke the lows of previous day first time in the last 7 days of this rally.
Nifty came within striking distance of 5300 today with just 15 points short.The recent upmove has moderate volumes only and the breadth is going down with every rise indicating weakning momentum with rising price action.Break of previous days low is an important point indicating top or near top of the rally in this leg.
In 17 days,Nifty has retraced about 81% of the fall of 613 points(33 days) which infact indicates stronger momentum on the upside than on downside.
If the momentum on the upside is genuinely strong ie geared towards 5500+ ,I dont expect a closing below 5150 on correction now for Nifty( ie more than about 2.5%).
The Bear case is that this 15 months old rally is exhibiting the last leg of the rally and is forming a double top(with todays closing,Nifty is within 2 % of the top)and thus exhibiting renewed momentum towards the end.Because of the increased momentum on the upside, the ensuing downside should also be fast.
I expect the bear scenario to play out and this rally is just to suck in the buyers and can keep going up to around 5400 before reversing for the big fall.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.1 breadth.
2.17th day of rally since the 4786 lows.
3.7th consecutive up day.(not since March/April 09)
4.Nifty broke the lows of previous day first time in the last 7 days of this rally.
Nifty came within striking distance of 5300 today with just 15 points short.The recent upmove has moderate volumes only and the breadth is going down with every rise indicating weakning momentum with rising price action.Break of previous days low is an important point indicating top or near top of the rally in this leg.
In 17 days,Nifty has retraced about 81% of the fall of 613 points(33 days) which infact indicates stronger momentum on the upside than on downside.
If the momentum on the upside is genuinely strong ie geared towards 5500+ ,I dont expect a closing below 5150 on correction now for Nifty( ie more than about 2.5%).
The Bear case is that this 15 months old rally is exhibiting the last leg of the rally and is forming a double top(with todays closing,Nifty is within 2 % of the top)and thus exhibiting renewed momentum towards the end.Because of the increased momentum on the upside, the ensuing downside should also be fast.
I expect the bear scenario to play out and this rally is just to suck in the buyers and can keep going up to around 5400 before reversing for the big fall.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Jun16 update
Nifty crossed 5250 on open but moved sideways all day with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.16 days of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
3.6th consecutive day of +ve closing.
Nifty's opening was at the highs of the day but it lost momentum as the day progressed.Breadth of Nifty is close to neutral now for last 2days indicating upside momentum in this leg that started from 4967 is nearly over.So some correction in Nifty is expected in next 1-3 days.I expect that if the correction stays above 5100 then Nifty will likely make an attempt at higher levels but if Nifty closes below 5100 levels then the rally from 4786 may well be over.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.16 days of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
3.6th consecutive day of +ve closing.
Nifty's opening was at the highs of the day but it lost momentum as the day progressed.Breadth of Nifty is close to neutral now for last 2days indicating upside momentum in this leg that started from 4967 is nearly over.So some correction in Nifty is expected in next 1-3 days.I expect that if the correction stays above 5100 then Nifty will likely make an attempt at higher levels but if Nifty closes below 5100 levels then the rally from 4786 may well be over.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Jun15 update
Nifty consolidated its gain of 4 days and moved further up with high volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2.15th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn)
Nifty continued its rally for the 5th consecutive day.There is one 1 correction in these 15 days of rally.If this is a pullback rally from the 4786 lows, then price and timewise the rally has reached its target levels.But there has only been 1 correction in these 15 days and normally we see 2-3 corrections in a rally.
But if this is a pullback rally then we can have 1 correction also.Nifty has not shown any -ve divergences as of today.I would expect -ve divergence to appear in Nifty over next few days if nifty is around top of its rally.Any close below 5100 is first sign of Nifty going down to me.
1.Nifty up by 0.5% with 1.5 breadth.
2.15th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn)
Nifty continued its rally for the 5th consecutive day.There is one 1 correction in these 15 days of rally.If this is a pullback rally from the 4786 lows, then price and timewise the rally has reached its target levels.But there has only been 1 correction in these 15 days and normally we see 2-3 corrections in a rally.
But if this is a pullback rally then we can have 1 correction also.Nifty has not shown any -ve divergences as of today.I would expect -ve divergence to appear in Nifty over next few days if nifty is around top of its rally.Any close below 5100 is first sign of Nifty going down to me.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Jun14 Update
Nifty gapped up and touched 5200 levels with low volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 2.4 breadth.
2.14th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
Nifty had a good bounce today with +ve breadth.I expect Nifty to follow up/consolidate on these gains for the next 4 days of the week.I expect that any weakness that develops now for 3-4 days along with -ve divergences in oscillators could be a potential signal for the next downturn.I am expecting that if Nifty turns down again in next couple of weeks,it could be a big cut within a time of 8-10 days.
1.Nifty up by 1.6% with 2.4 breadth.
2.14th day of rally since 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
Nifty had a good bounce today with +ve breadth.I expect Nifty to follow up/consolidate on these gains for the next 4 days of the week.I expect that any weakness that develops now for 3-4 days along with -ve divergences in oscillators could be a potential signal for the next downturn.I am expecting that if Nifty turns down again in next couple of weeks,it could be a big cut within a time of 8-10 days.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Jun11 Update
Nifty moved up above 5100 today but didnot cross the earlier highs.There was increased volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.8% with 1.0 breadth.
2.13th day of rally since 4786 lows.
3.Weekly closing above 5ema though -ve indicates +ve momentum is maintained.
Nifty moved up today but failed to attempt earlier highs of 5150.Nifty has taken 13 days to reach around 5100-5150 levels while it took 8 days from 5174 to 4806(3rd leg of downturn).So clearly Nifty lacks the momentum on the upside.5150 also happens to be 60% of the 613 point retracement of the fall from 5399-4786.If this upside is Wave2/WaveB of the fall then Nifty should move to about 5200-5250.In such a case Nifty should take 4 or 5weeks for the upside since the previous rally was of 9weeks,and the fall was of 5 weeks.I expect Nifty to have next weekly closing around 5200.After that Nifty could turn around during expiry week or week after that.This downfall I expect should breach the lows of 4786 and Nifty should then see sub 4500 levels.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.8% with 1.0 breadth.
2.13th day of rally since 4786 lows.
3.Weekly closing above 5ema though -ve indicates +ve momentum is maintained.
Nifty moved up today but failed to attempt earlier highs of 5150.Nifty has taken 13 days to reach around 5100-5150 levels while it took 8 days from 5174 to 4806(3rd leg of downturn).So clearly Nifty lacks the momentum on the upside.5150 also happens to be 60% of the 613 point retracement of the fall from 5399-4786.If this upside is Wave2/WaveB of the fall then Nifty should move to about 5200-5250.In such a case Nifty should take 4 or 5weeks for the upside since the previous rally was of 9weeks,and the fall was of 5 weeks.I expect Nifty to have next weekly closing around 5200.After that Nifty could turn around during expiry week or week after that.This downfall I expect should breach the lows of 4786 and Nifty should then see sub 4500 levels.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Jun10 Update
Nifty moved up above 5050 with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.5% with 2.8 breadth.
2.12th day since the lows of 4786.
Nifty after being in correction for 3 days moved up towards 5100 levels.The momentum in the next few days will tell whether the rally will fade towards 5200-5300 or Nifty will make new highs above 5400.I expect next week's move of Nifty to throw light on its future course of action.
1.Nifty up by 1.5% with 2.8 breadth.
2.12th day since the lows of 4786.
Nifty after being in correction for 3 days moved up towards 5100 levels.The momentum in the next few days will tell whether the rally will fade towards 5200-5300 or Nifty will make new highs above 5400.I expect next week's move of Nifty to throw light on its future course of action.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
June9 Update
Nifty moved sideways today and didnot go down below yesterdays low.Volumes were low and breadth was marginally +ve.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.2 breadth.
2.11th day since the 4786 lows.
Nifty moved sideways today.Today being the 3rd day of consolidation/downfall.The upmove from 4960 took 3 days to reach 5147.In 3 days of downfall, Nifty has not broken the 4960 lows,so the down momentum is not big.If the downfall is complete,I expect Nifty to bounce towards 5100 levels in next 1-2 days.Weekly 5ema is at 5100 ,so I expect that the weekly closing could be around 5100 levels as Nifty bounced back strongly for last two weeks and it could take support at the weekly ema to go further up.Downside scenario will be considered if Nifty closes around 4900 or below.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.2 breadth.
2.11th day since the 4786 lows.
Nifty moved sideways today.Today being the 3rd day of consolidation/downfall.The upmove from 4960 took 3 days to reach 5147.In 3 days of downfall, Nifty has not broken the 4960 lows,so the down momentum is not big.If the downfall is complete,I expect Nifty to bounce towards 5100 levels in next 1-2 days.Weekly 5ema is at 5100 ,so I expect that the weekly closing could be around 5100 levels as Nifty bounced back strongly for last two weeks and it could take support at the weekly ema to go further up.Downside scenario will be considered if Nifty closes around 4900 or below.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
June8 Update
Nifty drifted further down today with low volumes and -ve breadth. Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1% with 0.55 breadth.
2.10th day(8+2) since the lows of 4786.
Nifty extended its downmove today.The low volume selloff of 2 days does not show any big momentum as of now.So if this is the correction of the upmove to 5100 levels,Nifty should bounce upwards towards the end of week to 5100+ levels.Incase Nifty remains in this 4900-5000 range till the end of week,then this could well be the new downmove in the Nifty.But the Oscillators are showing +ve divergences on this correction,so I am inclined towards this as a correction.
1.Nifty down by 1% with 0.55 breadth.
2.10th day(8+2) since the lows of 4786.
Nifty extended its downmove today.The low volume selloff of 2 days does not show any big momentum as of now.So if this is the correction of the upmove to 5100 levels,Nifty should bounce upwards towards the end of week to 5100+ levels.Incase Nifty remains in this 4900-5000 range till the end of week,then this could well be the new downmove in the Nifty.But the Oscillators are showing +ve divergences on this correction,so I am inclined towards this as a correction.
Monday, June 7, 2010
June7 Update
Nifty came down today with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 2% with 0.28 breadth.
2.9th day from low of 4786 on Nifty.
My scenario of big upmove on wave3 didn't play out and it seems Nifty is either consolidating its gains from 4786 to 5100 since last correction to 4960 OR Nifty May be forming a double bottom Pattern around 4800-4900 levels.Anyways ,I now expect Nifty to trade sideways with around 4900 as lower limit till it makes up its mind to break out on upside.I am inclined to upside move since I see a major downleg unfolding in coming weeks, and that I think needs a leg up before there will be big crack in Nifty.Upside move should be able to move past 5400 levels before reversing.
I will reconsider downleg move incase Nifty does not show any signs of making an upside move in the next few days.At the earliest I expect a crack in Nifty around 1st half of July.
1.Nifty down by 2% with 0.28 breadth.
2.9th day from low of 4786 on Nifty.
My scenario of big upmove on wave3 didn't play out and it seems Nifty is either consolidating its gains from 4786 to 5100 since last correction to 4960 OR Nifty May be forming a double bottom Pattern around 4800-4900 levels.Anyways ,I now expect Nifty to trade sideways with around 4900 as lower limit till it makes up its mind to break out on upside.I am inclined to upside move since I see a major downleg unfolding in coming weeks, and that I think needs a leg up before there will be big crack in Nifty.Upside move should be able to move past 5400 levels before reversing.
I will reconsider downleg move incase Nifty does not show any signs of making an upside move in the next few days.At the earliest I expect a crack in Nifty around 1st half of July.
Friday, June 4, 2010
June4 Update
Nifty moved sideways with positive bias with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.5% with 0.9 breadth.
2.8th day of rally from 4786 lows(with 7 up days in last 8 days).
3.Daily and weekly closing are above the 5ema.
Nifty continued its upmove and ended the week with 1.4% gain.There has been 1 correction till now in this upmove of Nifty.Typically 2-3 Corrections/Pauses are there in one complete impulsive wave of Nifty.The momentum is quite strong in Nifty and if this is Wave3 of Nifty after the steep correction to 4960, then there should be a big surge to higher levels next week.-ve breadth and low volumes today are indicative of skepticism on the part of market players about further upmove even after such strong momentum in Nifty from 4786 lows.Price action of Nifty and breadth/volumes are showing divergence.I give more weightage to price action, and this makes me think that strong action of Nifty should be there next week.
1.Nifty moved up by 0.5% with 0.9 breadth.
2.8th day of rally from 4786 lows(with 7 up days in last 8 days).
3.Daily and weekly closing are above the 5ema.
Nifty continued its upmove and ended the week with 1.4% gain.There has been 1 correction till now in this upmove of Nifty.Typically 2-3 Corrections/Pauses are there in one complete impulsive wave of Nifty.The momentum is quite strong in Nifty and if this is Wave3 of Nifty after the steep correction to 4960, then there should be a big surge to higher levels next week.-ve breadth and low volumes today are indicative of skepticism on the part of market players about further upmove even after such strong momentum in Nifty from 4786 lows.Price action of Nifty and breadth/volumes are showing divergence.I give more weightage to price action, and this makes me think that strong action of Nifty should be there next week.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
June3 Update
Nifty continued its rally into 7th day with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 2.8 breadth.
2.7th day of rally from 4786 lows.(after 33 days of downturn)
3.6 days up out of last 7,with 5 days more than 1% up.
Nifty moved strongly beyond 5100 levels and closed above it.This is a strong momentum that Nifty is exhibiting.I expect Nifty to move beyond 5400 in this strong momentum before it undergoes further correction.With Oil price meeting setup for Monday,a big trigger for index heavy weights,Nifty could surge incase of a favourable outcome. On the down scenario , I think that Nifty is currently trading well above day ema,so incase of -ve cues coming up Nifty will churn around 5100-5200 levels for few days before turning down.This scenario is less likely to me at this moment.
1.Nifty up by 1.8% with 2.8 breadth.
2.7th day of rally from 4786 lows.(after 33 days of downturn)
3.6 days up out of last 7,with 5 days more than 1% up.
Nifty moved strongly beyond 5100 levels and closed above it.This is a strong momentum that Nifty is exhibiting.I expect Nifty to move beyond 5400 in this strong momentum before it undergoes further correction.With Oil price meeting setup for Monday,a big trigger for index heavy weights,Nifty could surge incase of a favourable outcome. On the down scenario , I think that Nifty is currently trading well above day ema,so incase of -ve cues coming up Nifty will churn around 5100-5200 levels for few days before turning down.This scenario is less likely to me at this moment.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
June2 Update
Nifty moved sideways for most part but surged upwards during last half an hour,breadth was +ve and volumes were moderate.Important points for today.
1.Nifty moved up by 1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.6th day of rally from 4786 lows.
Nifty closed above 5000 after a late surge.Todays closing retraced ~45% of yesterdays fall,this only indicates that the fall from 5097 is not likely to be a deep one.Now I expect Nifty to either go to around 4900 levels and resume its uptrend or it may have already started its uptrend after the fall.In case Nifty falls below 4900 , expect it to test the previous lows of 4786(may breach by small or may not breach) and bounce back(but this retest looks less likely after todays bounce).
1.Nifty moved up by 1% with 1.8 breadth.
2.6th day of rally from 4786 lows.
Nifty closed above 5000 after a late surge.Todays closing retraced ~45% of yesterdays fall,this only indicates that the fall from 5097 is not likely to be a deep one.Now I expect Nifty to either go to around 4900 levels and resume its uptrend or it may have already started its uptrend after the fall.In case Nifty falls below 4900 , expect it to test the previous lows of 4786(may breach by small or may not breach) and bounce back(but this retest looks less likely after todays bounce).
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
June1 Update
Nifty had a late afternoon sell off with moderate volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.4 breadth.
2.1st day of correction after 4 days of rally.(total 5 days of rally).
Nifty retraced more than 40% of its upmove of last 4 days.I would assume this retracement to be wave2 of the upmove aslong as previous lows of 4786 are not breached.Incase 4786 is breached, then Nifty should either take support @ 4700 levels or it will undergo bigger cut towards 4300-4000 levels.It is prudent to wait and see where the Nifty takes support,because if this indeed is Wave2, Nifty would bounce towards 5400 levels really fast.The expected correction at 5200 has occurred about 100 points earlier at 5100.
1.Nifty down by 1.3% with 0.4 breadth.
2.1st day of correction after 4 days of rally.(total 5 days of rally).
Nifty retraced more than 40% of its upmove of last 4 days.I would assume this retracement to be wave2 of the upmove aslong as previous lows of 4786 are not breached.Incase 4786 is breached, then Nifty should either take support @ 4700 levels or it will undergo bigger cut towards 4300-4000 levels.It is prudent to wait and see where the Nifty takes support,because if this indeed is Wave2, Nifty would bounce towards 5400 levels really fast.The expected correction at 5200 has occurred about 100 points earlier at 5100.
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