Jun11 Update

Nifty moved up above 5100 today but didnot cross the earlier highs.There was increased volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.

1.Nifty moved up by 0.8% with 1.0 breadth.
2.13th day of rally since 4786 lows.
3.Weekly closing above 5ema though -ve indicates +ve momentum is maintained.

Nifty moved up today but failed to attempt earlier highs of 5150.Nifty has taken 13 days to reach around 5100-5150 levels while it took 8 days from 5174 to 4806(3rd leg of downturn).So clearly Nifty lacks the momentum on the upside.5150 also happens to be 60% of the 613 point retracement of the fall from 5399-4786.If this upside is Wave2/WaveB of the fall then Nifty should move to about 5200-5250.In such a case Nifty should take 4 or 5weeks for the upside since the previous rally was of 9weeks,and the fall was of 5 weeks.I expect Nifty to have next weekly closing around 5200.After that Nifty could turn around during expiry week or week after that.This downfall I expect should breach the lows of 4786 and Nifty should then see sub 4500 levels.