Nifty broke 5350 today towards the end with moderate volumes.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.8% with 0.8 breadth.
2.5th day since the highs of 5475.
3.1st weekly down of more than 1% since the start of the rally from 4786.
Nifty came down during the last 1 hour.This week was down week,with only small retracements of the fall on 2 days.Nifty broke the previous days low on each day of this week.The breadth was -ve but not too -ve on any day of the week.Also price action is limited to within 1% till now.This all indicates that -ve momentum is there but there is no capitulation as yet for this fall of 5 days.I expect this fall to first take rest around 5100-5150-5200 zone.The Journey after that could be sharp and swift.
My scenarios say that either Nifty goes to the 5100 by next week and bounces to highs/new highs for 2 weeks and then reverses for the big down OR
Nifty may make a big cut next week,or the week after next ie this leg of fall itself could lead to big cut.
These two are the likely scenarios that I foresee,But Nifty's price action and momentum will show us What Nifty may actually be trying to do.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Jul29 update
Nifty moved sideways in a narrow range today with neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.4th day since the highs of 5475.
Nifty was in sideways today.Since last 15 days Nifty is in 5350-5450 trading range.If the 5 waves of 43 day rally from 4786 are complete,Nifty should cut down to ~5150 levels in next few days.Momentum at 5150 will decide the further move on the downside for the Nifty.If Nifty has 1 more leg up left in this rally,then I expect Nifty to do that in next 2-3 days.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 1.0 breadth.
2.4th day since the highs of 5475.
Nifty was in sideways today.Since last 15 days Nifty is in 5350-5450 trading range.If the 5 waves of 43 day rally from 4786 are complete,Nifty should cut down to ~5150 levels in next few days.Momentum at 5150 will decide the further move on the downside for the Nifty.If Nifty has 1 more leg up left in this rally,then I expect Nifty to do that in next 2-3 days.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Jul28 update
Nifty moved down below 5400 today with higher volumes.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.6 breadth.
2.3rd down day after 43 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty broke the 5400 levels today and closed below it.Nifty has corrected about 1% on closing basis in 3 days.Either Nifty has started its downward move or it may still have one more leg up.Break of 5350 should likely take Nifty to 5150-5200 levels immediately as that is a strong support area.Next few days of price action should give more clarity of the possibilities of move ahead.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.6 breadth.
2.3rd down day after 43 days of rally from 4786.
Nifty broke the 5400 levels today and closed below it.Nifty has corrected about 1% on closing basis in 3 days.Either Nifty has started its downward move or it may still have one more leg up.Break of 5350 should likely take Nifty to 5150-5200 levels immediately as that is a strong support area.Next few days of price action should give more clarity of the possibilities of move ahead.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Jul27 update
Nifty was in sideways today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.2nd day since the 43 days rally(upto 5475).
Nifty was in 5400-5450 range today but the breadth at closing was -ve.Breadth since last few days is -ve even with positive moves indicating exhaustion of the rally from 4786.Two consecutive -ve closing days with decent price action would confirm a reversal.Though Nifty can still surge higher in this rally till about 5500 levels.I look forwards to the two scenarios indicated before.
1.Nifty up by 0.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.2nd day since the 43 days rally(upto 5475).
Nifty was in 5400-5450 range today but the breadth at closing was -ve.Breadth since last few days is -ve even with positive moves indicating exhaustion of the rally from 4786.Two consecutive -ve closing days with decent price action would confirm a reversal.Though Nifty can still surge higher in this rally till about 5500 levels.I look forwards to the two scenarios indicated before.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Jul26 update
Nifty moved down today with -ve breadth and moderate volumes.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.40 breadth.
2.Nifty may have completed its rally from 4786 in 43 days(till friday).In that case today is the 1st day of the downturn.
Nifty moved down today and may have reversed its rally from 4786 lows.I have two scenarios now,that may have been mentioned before also.
Scenario1 is that Nifty may be forming a diagonal triangle in the 5th Wave on weekly.5th Wave started from 4675(feb6th) and so the current wave may be the3rd of the triangle to be followed by wave4 and wave5 which should be swift downturn(not breaking the previous lows and then sharp reversal making new highs above 5475.
Scenario2 is that Nifty may have formed a medium term top here and it will crash down to 4500 or below levels in the next few days.
I expect that the next few days are likely to be down,and the intensity of the downturn and a bounce(if any) will determine whether scenario1 or scenario2 is in work.In both the scenarios levels of 5000-5100 should be there in the coming days.
1.Nifty down by 0.6% with 0.40 breadth.
2.Nifty may have completed its rally from 4786 in 43 days(till friday).In that case today is the 1st day of the downturn.
Nifty moved down today and may have reversed its rally from 4786 lows.I have two scenarios now,that may have been mentioned before also.
Scenario1 is that Nifty may be forming a diagonal triangle in the 5th Wave on weekly.5th Wave started from 4675(feb6th) and so the current wave may be the3rd of the triangle to be followed by wave4 and wave5 which should be swift downturn(not breaking the previous lows and then sharp reversal making new highs above 5475.
Scenario2 is that Nifty may have formed a medium term top here and it will crash down to 4500 or below levels in the next few days.
I expect that the next few days are likely to be down,and the intensity of the downturn and a bounce(if any) will determine whether scenario1 or scenario2 is in work.In both the scenarios levels of 5000-5100 should be there in the coming days.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Jul23 update
Nifty followed up yesterdays gain with a new high at open but moved sideways after that with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 0.53 breadth.
2.43rd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved up further today but breadth was quite -ve.The upside momentum may have exhausted looking at the breadth today.Nifty can have a correction any time now.The extent of the correction will tell whether Nifty has made the final top and reversed or not.Any correction below last closing low of 5368, I would consider as an indicator of Nifty having reversed its rally from 4786.
1.Nifty up by 0.15% with 0.53 breadth.
2.43rd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved up further today but breadth was quite -ve.The upside momentum may have exhausted looking at the breadth today.Nifty can have a correction any time now.The extent of the correction will tell whether Nifty has made the final top and reversed or not.Any correction below last closing low of 5368, I would consider as an indicator of Nifty having reversed its rally from 4786.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Jul22 update
Nifty moved up above 5400 today with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.0 breadth.
2.42nd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke its narrow range today(on closing basis) and closed well above 5400 but the breadth was barely +ve.Today was the 13th day of the wave5(5233(2nd july) - ?).I expect Nifty to make a new high above 5453 in 1-2 days and may be close above it for the Wave5 peak and then reverse.I expect this peak to be the bull market peak of the last 16 months+.
1.Nifty up by 0.8% with 1.0 breadth.
2.42nd day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty broke its narrow range today(on closing basis) and closed well above 5400 but the breadth was barely +ve.Today was the 13th day of the wave5(5233(2nd july) - ?).I expect Nifty to make a new high above 5453 in 1-2 days and may be close above it for the Wave5 peak and then reverse.I expect this peak to be the bull market peak of the last 16 months+.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Jul21 update
Nifty reversed yesterdays loss and closed just shy of 5400 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.2 breadth.
2.41st day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty has and inside day, moving within previous days range.Nifty is in tight range of 5350-5450 for last 8 days, so range break is expected now.If there is a breakout, I expect Nifty to close above 5453 levels before reversing.But I expect Nifty to breakdown from here.Breakdown has 2 scenarios as has been listed in yesterdays post.For the crash scenario to happen,some sudden event has to happen to make the markets go into tailspin.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.2 breadth.
2.41st day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty has and inside day, moving within previous days range.Nifty is in tight range of 5350-5450 for last 8 days, so range break is expected now.If there is a breakout, I expect Nifty to close above 5453 levels before reversing.But I expect Nifty to breakdown from here.Breakdown has 2 scenarios as has been listed in yesterdays post.For the crash scenario to happen,some sudden event has to happen to make the markets go into tailspin.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Event update- monsoon onset with very heavy rains
Monsoon struck Delhi in first week of July.Initial monsoon rains were very heavy causing widespread loss of lives as well matter.Monsoon is normal but the intensity of rain in the first spell was quite high.But even with heavy rains,the lowest temp in Delhi did not breach the lowest recorded on June8.
Jul20 update
Nifty broke the 6 day range today with low volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.40th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.5 days since the closing highs of 5400.
Nifty drifted down today during closing hour.If the downside continues for next 1-2 days, then Nifty may be headed for sub 5000 levels by next week.Besides the crash scenario for the bearish possibilty,I have one more scenario that I think also aligns with the natural indicators.
Scenario1 is that Nifty crashes down to 4000-4300 levels before giving a sustainable bounce and then again goes down to 3500-3700 levels.In this case, the first 10-12 days after a high ,Nifty should breach the earlier lows of 4786 and go possibly lower towards 4500/4600 levels in first downswing.
Scenario2 is that Nifty is undergoing 5 waves in the 5th weekly wave that started from Feb6th.ie Currently Nifty is in wave3 of Wave5 to be followed by Wave4 and Wave5 with possible targets for Wave5 of Wave5 5500+.This case will become active if Nifty's reversal from 5453(wave3) does not breach the previous intraday/weekly lows of 4786/4931 and then bounces back.
1.Nifty down by 0.5% with 0.6 breadth.
2.40th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.5 days since the closing highs of 5400.
Nifty drifted down today during closing hour.If the downside continues for next 1-2 days, then Nifty may be headed for sub 5000 levels by next week.Besides the crash scenario for the bearish possibilty,I have one more scenario that I think also aligns with the natural indicators.
Scenario1 is that Nifty crashes down to 4000-4300 levels before giving a sustainable bounce and then again goes down to 3500-3700 levels.In this case, the first 10-12 days after a high ,Nifty should breach the earlier lows of 4786 and go possibly lower towards 4500/4600 levels in first downswing.
Scenario2 is that Nifty is undergoing 5 waves in the 5th weekly wave that started from Feb6th.ie Currently Nifty is in wave3 of Wave5 to be followed by Wave4 and Wave5 with possible targets for Wave5 of Wave5 5500+.This case will become active if Nifty's reversal from 5453(wave3) does not breach the previous intraday/weekly lows of 4786/4931 and then bounces back.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Jul19 update
Nifty moved sideways today with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.9 breadth.
2.39th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty is in tight range of 5350-5450 since last 6 days.Breakout above previous highs of 5399 has not exhibited any momentum.Nifty's Wave5 continues.Whether Wave5 is extending or Nifty is in topping formation cannot be said.Given the momentum,any breakout on upside is expected to fizzle out soon and any breakdown should be sharp and swift given the Optimisim that exists which will result in Buy on dips since that would be a first breakdown of the 16th month bull market.
1.Nifty down by 0.1% with 0.9 breadth.
2.39th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty is in tight range of 5350-5450 since last 6 days.Breakout above previous highs of 5399 has not exhibited any momentum.Nifty's Wave5 continues.Whether Wave5 is extending or Nifty is in topping formation cannot be said.Given the momentum,any breakout on upside is expected to fizzle out soon and any breakdown should be sharp and swift given the Optimisim that exists which will result in Buy on dips since that would be a first breakdown of the 16th month bull market.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Jul16 update
Nifty was in sideways move today with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.3 breadth.
2.38th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty is moving sideways since the last 4 days.I expect a thrust on the upside/downside.Upside thrust should be short lived and turn around in few days ,while downside thrust should pick up momentum for Nifty to go down.The coming week could be a decisive week for the turn in Nifty.I expect that the first 10-12 days of downside thrust should see the big fall in Nifty.SO any downside movement below 5300 will be critical.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.3 breadth.
2.38th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty is moving sideways since the last 4 days.I expect a thrust on the upside/downside.Upside thrust should be short lived and turn around in few days ,while downside thrust should pick up momentum for Nifty to go down.The coming week could be a decisive week for the turn in Nifty.I expect that the first 10-12 days of downside thrust should see the big fall in Nifty.SO any downside movement below 5300 will be critical.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Jul15 update
Nifty moved sideways today with lighter volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.37th day of rally from lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved in a narrow range today and closed in the red.Today was 2nd consecutive down day.If Nifty does not take out the closing highs of 5400 tomorrow and closed in the red,I would expect that Wave5 is over and Nifty may have started its down journey.But if Nifty closes above 5400 tomorrow,then it could spend another few days trying to form a Top.
1.Nifty down by 0.2% with 0.8 breadth.
2.37th day of rally from lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved in a narrow range today and closed in the red.Today was 2nd consecutive down day.If Nifty does not take out the closing highs of 5400 tomorrow and closed in the red,I would expect that Wave5 is over and Nifty may have started its down journey.But if Nifty closes above 5400 tomorrow,then it could spend another few days trying to form a Top.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Jul14 update
Nifty moved past 5450 at open but gave up its gain at the end.Volumes were higher and breadth was -ve.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.67 breadth.
2.36th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty made a new high above 5450 today.Pullback in Nifty happened in the last 30 min.Nifty could move sideways/correct for next 1-2 days and then either make a last upmove or begin its downslide.If Nifty moves up after sideways move , I expect that move to last for 1-2 days only.Any close below 5300 should be a warning sign of weakness and close below 5250 be taken as a signal for onset of downturn.
1.Nifty down by 0.3% with 0.67 breadth.
2.36th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty made a new high above 5450 today.Pullback in Nifty happened in the last 30 min.Nifty could move sideways/correct for next 1-2 days and then either make a last upmove or begin its downslide.If Nifty moves up after sideways move , I expect that move to last for 1-2 days only.Any close below 5300 should be a warning sign of weakness and close below 5250 be taken as a signal for onset of downturn.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Jul13 update
Nifty inches upwards in a sideways move today with higher volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.4 breadth.
2.35th day of rally since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty's Wave5 looks like in a topping formation.4th consecutive day of upmove.Nifty may exhibit volatility now between 5250 and 5400/5450 before breaking down.
1.Nifty up by 0.3% with 1.4 breadth.
2.35th day of rally since lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty's Wave5 looks like in a topping formation.4th consecutive day of upmove.Nifty may exhibit volatility now between 5250 and 5400/5450 before breaking down.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Jul12 update
Nifty moved up further crossing the previous highs of 5399 with moderate volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.2 breadth.
2.34th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty extended its upmove and crossed 5400 today.Breadth weakened today indicating the rally is ready for correction/pause.Wave5 is continuing right now,so any weakness below 5250/5200 should confirm the start of downturn.Today was 3rd consecutive day of upmove and according to character of previous rallies in this 34 days upmove,rallies have not taken any break.I expect the current Wave5 to continue with a small pause/OR without pause, but any close below 5300 should be an early signal of end of wave5.
Signal of End of Wave5 should be a point to go short.
1.Nifty up by 0.6% with 1.2 breadth.
2.34th day of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty extended its upmove and crossed 5400 today.Breadth weakened today indicating the rally is ready for correction/pause.Wave5 is continuing right now,so any weakness below 5250/5200 should confirm the start of downturn.Today was 3rd consecutive day of upmove and according to character of previous rallies in this 34 days upmove,rallies have not taken any break.I expect the current Wave5 to continue with a small pause/OR without pause, but any close below 5300 should be an early signal of end of wave5.
Signal of End of Wave5 should be a point to go short.
Friday, July 9, 2010
Jul9 update
Nifty moved up further with higher volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.4 breadth.
2.33 days of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty extended yesterdays gain and confirming Wave5 is in progress.Wave5 can of ~300 points equal to Wave1(311) since Wave3(400) was twice that of Wave1 in time duration ,so Wave5 should be equal to wave1 in time/distance.2 days of Wave5 have been completed.Also Nifty has not yet scaled the Wave3 high of 5366 since 14 days.This to me is an indicator of the weakening of the rally into Wave5.I expect any signs of weakness hereon to be the likely top of this rally.I expect July monthly closing to be significantly below the June closing.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.4 breadth.
2.33 days of rally since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty extended yesterdays gain and confirming Wave5 is in progress.Wave5 can of ~300 points equal to Wave1(311) since Wave3(400) was twice that of Wave1 in time duration ,so Wave5 should be equal to wave1 in time/distance.2 days of Wave5 have been completed.Also Nifty has not yet scaled the Wave3 high of 5366 since 14 days.This to me is an indicator of the weakening of the rally into Wave5.I expect any signs of weakness hereon to be the likely top of this rally.I expect July monthly closing to be significantly below the June closing.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Jul8 update
Nifty bounced up today with moderate volumes and +ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.65 breadth.
2.32nd day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.13 days since the high of 5366.
Nifty rallied up today but gave up some of its gains towards the end.Todays move could be the Wave5.Today being the first day of the Wave5, price action and breadth indicate weak momentum.If this indeed is Wave5 ,then Nifty should crawl upwards towards 5350-5400 levels in next 2-3-4 days.The weakening breadth only indicate that there is limited upmove ahead.Look for further weakness in breadth with rising price action to indicate of a reversal ahead.
1.Nifty up by 1.1% with 1.65 breadth.
2.32nd day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.13 days since the high of 5366.
Nifty rallied up today but gave up some of its gains towards the end.Todays move could be the Wave5.Today being the first day of the Wave5, price action and breadth indicate weak momentum.If this indeed is Wave5 ,then Nifty should crawl upwards towards 5350-5400 levels in next 2-3-4 days.The weakening breadth only indicate that there is limited upmove ahead.Look for further weakness in breadth with rising price action to indicate of a reversal ahead.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Jul7 update
Nifty once again reversed its previous days gain with lower volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.66 breadth.
2.31st day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty reversed yesterdays gain,thus staying in the 5200-5370 range since about 15+ days.If the Nifty has made a top , then the downside momentum should have gained strength in 12 days.But downside momentum is not there in Nifty.And on the upside Nifty is making lower highs.This can be a Wave4 correction,that is usually shallow.and Nifty may be forming a triangle pattern in wave4.If so then 2-3 days of consecutive upmove should confirm Wave5.Again I expect if wave5 is going to be there,it should not be more than 3-4 days.
1.Nifty down by 0.9% with 0.66 breadth.
2.31st day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty reversed yesterdays gain,thus staying in the 5200-5370 range since about 15+ days.If the Nifty has made a top , then the downside momentum should have gained strength in 12 days.But downside momentum is not there in Nifty.And on the upside Nifty is making lower highs.This can be a Wave4 correction,that is usually shallow.and Nifty may be forming a triangle pattern in wave4.If so then 2-3 days of consecutive upmove should confirm Wave5.Again I expect if wave5 is going to be there,it should not be more than 3-4 days.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Jul6 update
Nifty bounced back today with low volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.4 breadth.
2.30th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty bounced back today.Tomorrow's confirmation is needed inorder to take it as an upmove.Today being the first day of upmove,breadth as well as volumes were weak indicating lack of strength.I expect this bounce/upmove to last for 3-4 days only.So Nifty's close below 5235 will be a signal of an upcoming downfall.I expect this week or next week ,we may begin a downfall, if not already started.First 8-10 days of downfall would be critical,as we can see big fall in the first 10 days.So have to be cautious on each days move and look out for signs of weakness on further upmove.
1.Nifty up by 1.0% with 1.4 breadth.
2.30th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty bounced back today.Tomorrow's confirmation is needed inorder to take it as an upmove.Today being the first day of upmove,breadth as well as volumes were weak indicating lack of strength.I expect this bounce/upmove to last for 3-4 days only.So Nifty's close below 5235 will be a signal of an upcoming downfall.I expect this week or next week ,we may begin a downfall, if not already started.First 8-10 days of downfall would be critical,as we can see big fall in the first 10 days.So have to be cautious on each days move and look out for signs of weakness on further upmove.
Monday, July 5, 2010
Jul5 update
Nifty moved in a very narrow range with very thin volumes and neutral breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by .04% with 1.1 breadth.
2.29th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved sideways inside previous days range with very low volumes.Today was 10th day since the high of 5366 was hit.Though the number of days ie 10 since the high indicate that high is in place but downward price action is limited to 3% from top(5210).Also Nifty has been resisted 3 times above 5300 .All this indicates to me that Nifty can make an attempt to go above 5300/5366 again, but it shud be a weak one.So I expect Nifty to either spiral down or make another weak attempt at 5300-5400 zone before turning down.Today was 29th day from the lows of 4786,so I expect that Nifty if it goes up may not spend more than 3-4 days up.
1.Nifty down by .04% with 1.1 breadth.
2.29th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
Nifty moved sideways inside previous days range with very low volumes.Today was 10th day since the high of 5366 was hit.Though the number of days ie 10 since the high indicate that high is in place but downward price action is limited to 3% from top(5210).Also Nifty has been resisted 3 times above 5300 .All this indicates to me that Nifty can make an attempt to go above 5300/5366 again, but it shud be a weak one.So I expect Nifty to either spiral down or make another weak attempt at 5300-5400 zone before turning down.Today was 29th day from the lows of 4786,so I expect that Nifty if it goes up may not spend more than 3-4 days up.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Jul2 update
Nifty had a sideway day though it broke yesterdays low with lighter volumes and -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.75 breadth.
2.28th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.9th day since the high of 5366.
Nifty moved sideways but broke yesterdays low.Nifty has closed below the 4786-4967 trendline for 2 days.This along with the fact that the high of 5366 has not been taken out for 9 days,implies that the rally may be over.I expect Nifty to fall to around 5150 and give a suckers bounce to around 5300 before falling down to newer lows below 4786.The coming few weeks till September 15 are going to see lot of volatile action and may provide great opportunity for shorting.So Be extra careful.
1.Nifty down by 0.25% with 0.75 breadth.
2.28th day since the lows of 4786(33 days of downturn).
3.9th day since the high of 5366.
Nifty moved sideways but broke yesterdays low.Nifty has closed below the 4786-4967 trendline for 2 days.This along with the fact that the high of 5366 has not been taken out for 9 days,implies that the rally may be over.I expect Nifty to fall to around 5150 and give a suckers bounce to around 5300 before falling down to newer lows below 4786.The coming few weeks till September 15 are going to see lot of volatile action and may provide great opportunity for shorting.So Be extra careful.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Jul1 update
Nifty again reversed yesterdays gain(about 80%) with lower volumes and slightly -ve breadth.Important points for today.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.77 breadth.
2.27th day since the 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
Nifty flipped again for the 4th day,putting a doubt on the Wave4/Wave5 count.Today was the 8th day since the high of 5366 was hit.If that previous high of 5366 is not captured in 2 days(by monday,I would expect Nifty's rally from 4786 is done and Nifty is headed lower towards 4700-4800 levels.Tomorrow is weekly closing and a -ve closing (if it is @1% -ve) will imply loss of momentum in Nifty rally.
5 impulsive waves have been completed on weekly and monthly charts and the June monthly closing(5312) looks like a double top after a 5th wave on monthly charts.If this is the case expect July monthly closing to be significantly lower than June's.
1.Nifty down by 1.2% with 0.77 breadth.
2.27th day since the 4786 lows(33 days of downturn).
Nifty flipped again for the 4th day,putting a doubt on the Wave4/Wave5 count.Today was the 8th day since the high of 5366 was hit.If that previous high of 5366 is not captured in 2 days(by monday,I would expect Nifty's rally from 4786 is done and Nifty is headed lower towards 4700-4800 levels.Tomorrow is weekly closing and a -ve closing (if it is @1% -ve) will imply loss of momentum in Nifty rally.
5 impulsive waves have been completed on weekly and monthly charts and the June monthly closing(5312) looks like a double top after a 5th wave on monthly charts.If this is the case expect July monthly closing to be significantly lower than June's.
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